GERD: Time will tell - Egypt - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

26-03-2025

The Ethiopian prime minister's statement that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be inaugurated within six months was purely for domestic consumption
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told Ethiopia's parliament last week that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will be inaugurated within six months.
Abbas Sharaki, a professor of geology at Cairo University, described Ahmed's statement as an attempt to appease the public who have been waiting for the completion of the dam which has been promoted as key to Ethiopia's economic development.
To say the dam is complete suggests construction work is finished, and that all 13 turbines are installed and operational, which is not the case, said Sharaki. While concrete work is 99 per cent complete there has been no change in water levels — 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) — since the fifth filling ended in September last year, which contradicts Ahmed's statement that the amount of stored water has reached 74 bcm.
As for the turbines, Sharaki explained only six out of 13 are installed and their operation is still in the experimental stage. They work for a few days then stop for months.
Over 10 years, Egypt and Sudan exerted every effort to reach a legally binding agreement on the filling and operation of GERD. Despite the failure of these efforts, Ahmed — as quoted by the Ethiopian media — said Addis Ababa will continue to work with Cairo for the benefit of the two countries and people.
'If Ethiopia wants dialogue and cooperation rather than disagreements, why did it not sign the draft agreement in Washington in February 2020, why did the negotiations stop in December 2023 and why have there not been any attempts to get negotiations back on track,' asked Sharaki.
It is obvious, said a former diplomat who requested anonymity, that Ahmed is trying to distract attention away from his domestic problems.
In last week's address to parliament, Ahmed also dismissed the prospect of war with Eritrea over the two countries' longstanding dispute about sea access, saying: 'What the people of Eritrea need is development, not conflict. Our plan is to grow and work together, not fight one another.'
While insisting access to a Red Sea port is an 'existential issue' for Ethiopia, Ahmed has failed to achieve it, the diplomat noted.
Eritrea was an Ethiopian territory until 1991 when it gained independence after decades of war. With Eritrean independence, Ethiopia lost access to the Red Sea and became landlocked. Raising the issue of a seaport sparks fears of renewed conflict between the two states.
In an attempt to gain access to the sea, Ahmed signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland in January last year. Somaliland proclaimed independence from Somalia in 1991, though it is not recognised by any country. Under the deal, Somaliland agreed to lease land to Ethiopia to build a naval facility on its coast in return for Ethiopian recognition. The deal angered Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory and regards the deal as an infringement of its sovereignty.
Cairo has repeatedly underlined the importance of respecting Somali sovereignty and rejects any involvement of non-coastal states in Red Sea security.
Regular meetings are held between the Egyptian, Eritrean and Somali foreign ministers. This week, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with his Eritrean counterpart Osman Saleh to discuss ways to promote regional stability through tripartite coordination with Somalia. Both Egypt and Eritrea reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Somalia in combating terrorism and preserving its territorial integrity.
The two diplomats also underlined their rejection of the involvement of non-coastal states in the protection and governance of the Red Sea.
This week's meeting was held within an extended framework of discussions that aim to boost bilateral and trilateral relations with Somalia and promote peace and security in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. Abdelatty's most recent visit to the Eritrean capital Asmara was last month.
Ahmed's parliamentary announcement was made against a backdrop of possible domestic unrest due to internal splits and a reported coup among some factions within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
The TPLF fought the federal government from 2020 to 2022 and is currently led by an interim administration formed after the Pretoria Agreement was signed in 2022. Ahmed told parliament that he agreed the current interim administration of Tigray should remain in place despite internal divisions.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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