GERD: Time will tell - Egypt - Al-Ahram Weekly
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told Ethiopia's parliament last week that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will be inaugurated within six months.
Abbas Sharaki, a professor of geology at Cairo University, described Ahmed's statement as an attempt to appease the public who have been waiting for the completion of the dam which has been promoted as key to Ethiopia's economic development.
To say the dam is complete suggests construction work is finished, and that all 13 turbines are installed and operational, which is not the case, said Sharaki. While concrete work is 99 per cent complete there has been no change in water levels — 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) — since the fifth filling ended in September last year, which contradicts Ahmed's statement that the amount of stored water has reached 74 bcm.
As for the turbines, Sharaki explained only six out of 13 are installed and their operation is still in the experimental stage. They work for a few days then stop for months.
Over 10 years, Egypt and Sudan exerted every effort to reach a legally binding agreement on the filling and operation of GERD. Despite the failure of these efforts, Ahmed — as quoted by the Ethiopian media — said Addis Ababa will continue to work with Cairo for the benefit of the two countries and people.
'If Ethiopia wants dialogue and cooperation rather than disagreements, why did it not sign the draft agreement in Washington in February 2020, why did the negotiations stop in December 2023 and why have there not been any attempts to get negotiations back on track,' asked Sharaki.
It is obvious, said a former diplomat who requested anonymity, that Ahmed is trying to distract attention away from his domestic problems.
In last week's address to parliament, Ahmed also dismissed the prospect of war with Eritrea over the two countries' longstanding dispute about sea access, saying: 'What the people of Eritrea need is development, not conflict. Our plan is to grow and work together, not fight one another.'
While insisting access to a Red Sea port is an 'existential issue' for Ethiopia, Ahmed has failed to achieve it, the diplomat noted.
Eritrea was an Ethiopian territory until 1991 when it gained independence after decades of war. With Eritrean independence, Ethiopia lost access to the Red Sea and became landlocked. Raising the issue of a seaport sparks fears of renewed conflict between the two states.
In an attempt to gain access to the sea, Ahmed signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland in January last year. Somaliland proclaimed independence from Somalia in 1991, though it is not recognised by any country. Under the deal, Somaliland agreed to lease land to Ethiopia to build a naval facility on its coast in return for Ethiopian recognition. The deal angered Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory and regards the deal as an infringement of its sovereignty.
Cairo has repeatedly underlined the importance of respecting Somali sovereignty and rejects any involvement of non-coastal states in Red Sea security.
Regular meetings are held between the Egyptian, Eritrean and Somali foreign ministers. This week, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with his Eritrean counterpart Osman Saleh to discuss ways to promote regional stability through tripartite coordination with Somalia. Both Egypt and Eritrea reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Somalia in combating terrorism and preserving its territorial integrity.
The two diplomats also underlined their rejection of the involvement of non-coastal states in the protection and governance of the Red Sea.
This week's meeting was held within an extended framework of discussions that aim to boost bilateral and trilateral relations with Somalia and promote peace and security in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. Abdelatty's most recent visit to the Eritrean capital Asmara was last month.
Ahmed's parliamentary announcement was made against a backdrop of possible domestic unrest due to internal splits and a reported coup among some factions within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
The TPLF fought the federal government from 2020 to 2022 and is currently led by an interim administration formed after the Pretoria Agreement was signed in 2022. Ahmed told parliament that he agreed the current interim administration of Tigray should remain in place despite internal divisions.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 March, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
Follow us on:
Short link:
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily News Egypt
2 days ago
- Daily News Egypt
Ethiopian Opposition Parties Mourn Migrant Drownings off Yemen Coast, Blame Domestic Failures
Four Ethiopian opposition parties have jointly expressed sorrow and outrage over the deaths of dozens of Ethiopian migrants who drowned off Yemen's southern coast, blaming the tragedy on structural failures and political mismanagement at home. In a statement issued Monday, the All Ethiopian Unity Party, Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party, Enat Party, and the Amhara Ghionawit Movement Party extended condolences to families of the victims and called for urgent national reflection. The opposition groups linked the fatal incident to deep-rooted issues within Ethiopia, including youth unemployment, social inequality, and what they described as the ruling Prosperity Party's war-driven governance style. 'This tragedy is a painful reminder of the desperation pushing our youth into dangerous journeys,' the statement said. 'It is the direct result of hopelessness, misrule, and economic exclusion.' According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a boat carrying 154 migrants—mostly Ethiopians—capsized in rough seas off Yemen's Abyan province. As of Sunday, 68 people were confirmed dead, including 54 Ethiopians and one Yemeni. The fate of 74 others remains unknown, while only 12 people survived. The parties urged Ethiopian youth to resist the temptation to flee the country under such perilous conditions, even amid rising despair. They also criticized the government's silence, noting that no official response had been issued by authorities as of Monday. 'This silence is telling. It reflects a leadership disconnected from the suffering of its people,' said a representative of the Enat Party. The incident highlights the growing migration crisis in the Horn of Africa, where thousands of Ethiopians—especially from rural and conflict-affected areas—attempt to cross into the Arabian Peninsula each year, often through Yemen's war-torn and unregulated coastlines. Analysts say political instability, shrinking economic opportunities, and ethnic violence continue to fuel outward migration, even as risks increase.
Daily News Egypt
3 days ago
- Daily News Egypt
Rising Tensions in Tigray: Interim Government Accuses New Party of Armed Attack
Tigray, the northern Ethiopian region that endured two years of brutal civil war until the Pretoria peace agreement in late 2022, is once again witnessing alarming signs of political and security instability. The region's interim administration has accused a newly formed political party, Semret, led by former regional president Getachew Reda, of carrying out an armed attack that left one member of the regional security forces dead. The incident took place on July 30 in the Melzat area of southeastern Tigray. In a strongly worded statement, the Peace and Security Bureau of the interim administration claimed that the assailants, allegedly affiliated with Semret, were disguising their actions as political mobilization while pursuing a foreign-funded agenda aimed at destabilizing the region. The administration identified the slain officer as Hilo Andi Kendia and labeled the attack 'a calculated act of terrorism,' warning that further provocations could trigger serious internal conflict between the fragmented political and security factions in Tigray. The administration also accused Semret of 'betraying the spirit of peace' and fueling internal discord at a time when the region is struggling to rebuild state institutions, reintegrate ex-combatants, and address the dire humanitarian and economic fallout of war. In response, Getachew Reda categorically denied the allegations, calling them 'fabricated and politically motivated.' In a statement on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Reda accused the interim administration of seeking to eliminate political competition through smear campaigns and intimidation. He insisted that Semret is a fledgling political movement with no military wing, no access to weapons, and no interest in resorting to violence. 'We are advocating for peaceful political engagement and inclusive governance, not conflict,' he said. The escalating war of words comes amid mounting concern among observers and civil society groups over the erosion of the fragile peace in Tigray. Since mid-2024, tensions between rival factions have increased, with growing discontent over the lack of transparent transitional governance, disarmament disputes, and dissatisfaction with the interim authority's performance. The July 30 incident marks the most serious accusation yet between the Tigrayan interim authorities and emerging political movements, and could set a dangerous precedent. Civil society organizations, fearing a slide back into war, have renewed calls for dialogue and reconciliation. In June 2024, a coalition of local NGOs and religious leaders launched the 'Peace and Dialogue' campaign, urging political actors in Tigray to refrain from inflammatory rhetoric and prioritize national and regional unity. The group warned that without a genuine political transition and the inclusion of all stakeholders, the risk of renewed violence remains high. Meanwhile, the federal government in Addis Ababa has remained largely silent on the internal political dynamics of Tigray, focusing instead on federal-level stabilization. The lack of mediation or oversight has allowed local grievances and rivalries to fester unchecked. Analysts warn that if political fragmentation in Tigray continues, the region could face a repeat of the devastating cycle of violence that led to tens of thousands of deaths and displaced millions just three years ago. The international community, including the African Union and United Nations, has also yet to issue a formal response to the latest developments. As Ethiopia enters a critical period of post-conflict transition, the situation in Tigray is increasingly seen as a test case for whether the country can truly move beyond civil war—or whether the deep divisions that fueled the previous conflict will once again boil over.
Egypt Independent
4 days ago
- Egypt Independent
Egypt issues another warning to Ethiopia over GERD
Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sewilam warned Ethiopia against its continued unilateral action in managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), as such actions pose a direct threat to Egypt's water security. Sewilam's remarks came during a phone interview with Ahmed Moussa's TV show 'Ala Massoulity' (On My Responsibility) on Saturday. Egypt is closely monitoring developments regarding the GERD, and has emphasized the need for Ethiopia to adhere to international law and recognize Egypt's water rights. Water relations with the southern Nile Basin countries, such as Tanzania, Congo, and South Sudan are good, while they remain tense with Ethiopia. The minister explained that Egypt faces water scarcity, with an annual per capita share of approximately 500 cubic meters, compared to the international water poverty rate (1,000 cubic meters). Sewilam denied the existence of a water crisis in Egypt, assuring that the country is capable of managing its water challenges thanks to massive investments worth LE500 billion in water projects, including water treatment and recycling. Egypt has increased the volume of recycled water from 21 billion cubic meters two years ago to an expected 26 billion in the coming months, to address water scarcity and support agriculture in the desert. The Egyptian minister emphasized that the High Dam plays a crucial role in protecting Egypt from flooding, noting that this year's flooding was above average – a positive indicator. Sewilam revealed the ministry's use of mathematical models and modern technology to accurately monitor rainfall flows from Nile Basin countries, with a focus on improving the efficiency of water distribution for agriculture and households. Egypt has repeatedly affirmed its rejection of Ethiopia's unilateral actions, especially after the dam's filling began in 2020 without a tripartite agreement. In December 2023, Egypt suspended negotiations with Ethiopia after several previous rounds of negotiations failed due to what Sewilam described as Ethiopia's 'evasiveness and procrastination.' Egypt is demanding a binding agreement that guarantees that its water share will not be harmed, noting that the dam is 'illegal' due to its failure to comply with international law. It has also expressed concern about the dam's strength, warning of the risk of its collapse for Sudan and Egypt.
