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Denver Nuggets 2024-2025 fantasy basketball season recap: Nikola Jokic finishes on top...again

Denver Nuggets 2024-2025 fantasy basketball season recap: Nikola Jokic finishes on top...again

NBC Sports27-05-2025

While the NBA Playoffs are in full swing, now is a good time to recap the fantasy basketball season for all 30 teams.
In the following weeks, we will provide a recap for each team, starting with the team with the worst record and concluding with the NBA champion in June.
Another season removed from the franchise's first NBA championship, the Nuggets were part of a logjam behind top-2 seeds Oklahoma City and Houston in the Western Conference. While Nikola Jokic continued to do his usual work, finishing second in the voting for Most Valuable Player, the Nuggets did not always do their best to supplement the efforts of their best player. Two major changes were made late in the regular season, and ultimately, Denver was eliminated by Oklahoma City in the second round of the Western Conference Playoffs.
Denver Nuggets 2024-2025 Season Recap
Record: 50-32 (4th, West)
Offensive Rating: 118.9 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 115.1 (21st)
Net Rating: 3.8 (9th)
Pace: 100.67 (8th)
2025 NBA Draft Picks: None
Thought by many to be one of the teams with a chance of making noise in the Western Conference this season, the Nuggets extended their streak of 50-win seasons to three in 2024-25. However, the path traveled was anything but smooth. Injuries limited Aaron Gordon to 51 appearances, and the Nuggets' inconsistent bench production was an issue for most of the season. And then there was the decision made by Josh Kroenke late in the regular season that changed the path the Nuggets' franchise will take in the future.
Head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth not always seeing eye-to-eye on the roster was not a shocking development. However, instead of one party 'winning' this proverbial tug of war, both lost. Kroenke decided to part ways with Malone and Booth with only a handful of games remaining in the regular season. While David Adelman took over as interim head coach and had the tag removed shortly after Denver's season concluded, the Nuggets are still searching for a new general manager.
Whoever's selected to take over that role will have some work to do this offseason. Is Denver's player development good enough to have another young player emerge as a consistent contributor? And if not, how will they go about strengthening the bench, especially without a pick in June's NBA Draft? Jokic's status as one of the best players in the NBA is unquestioned, but the Nuggets will need to make improvements around him if they're to make a run at another title.
Fantasy Standout: Nikola Jokic
Given his production, this was an easy choice. Once again, The Joker was the top-ranked player in fantasy basketball, sitting atop the per-game rankings in eight- and nine-cat formats according to Basketball Monster. The only player in the conversation atop the rankings in total value was Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was also named the NBA's Most Valuable Player. Jokic has won that award in three of the last five years, and a case can be made that he's on par with the likes of prime Shaquille O'Neal and LeBron James. Jokic may not win MVP every year, but you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who believes he isn't the best player in the NBA.
Jokic appeared in 70 games, averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.0 three-pointers in 36.7 minutes per game. The first center to average a triple-double in NBA history, he shot 57.6 percent from the field and 80 percent from the foul line. Jokic missed five games in March due to right elbow and left ankle injuries, the former being an issue that nagged him for most of the season. While the timing wasn't great for fantasy managers competing in their league playoffs at the time, Jokic has been dependable from an availability standpoint. He's failed to appear in at least 70 games once in his career, playing 69 games during the 2022-23 campaign.
🗣 HE'S BAAAAAAACK!
After a 5-game absence due to an ankle injury, Nikola Jokić returned to the lineup & posted a stat line of:
39 PTS | 10 REB | 10 AST
He joined Russell Westbrook, Oscar Robertson and Wilt Chamberlain as the 4th player with 30 triple-doubles in a season 🤯 pic.twitter.com/nHu78S7oU2
The Nuggets have Jokic locked into a max contract through the 2027-28 season; given his importance to the franchise, he isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He'll go into the 2025-26 season atop many fantasy draft boards, with SGA and San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama being the other possible options. The latter is recovering from a blood clot that ended his season after the All-Star break.
Fantasy Revelation: Christian Braun
With Denver losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency, Braun was thrust into a position where he needed to produce after coming off the bench in his first two seasons. Starting 77 of the 79 games he appeared in, Braun was one of the most-improved players in the NBA in 2024-25. He averaged 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.1 three-pointers in 33.9 minutes, recording career-high numbers in each category. The efficiency was excellent, with the third-year guard shooting 58 percent from the field and 82.7 percent from the foul line.
After recording one 20-point game in his first two seasons, Braun had 18 such nights in 2024-25. That included the Nuggets' April 6 loss to the Pacers in which he scored a career-high 30 points, shooting 12-of-16 from the field. Braun also recorded six double-doubles this season and finished ranked just outside the top-50 in nine-cat formats. In eight-cat formats, he was just outside the top-75. A late-round pick in standard league drafts ahead of the 2024-25 season, Braun will merit middle-round consideration next fall.
Fantasy Disappointment: Julian Strawther
Strawther was another player who Caldwell-Pope's exit would impact. While he played well in his limited minutes during Summer League, the second-year wing disappointed many fantasy managers who rolled the dice on him with a late-round draft pick. Strawther appeared in 65 games, averaging 9.0 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.4 three-pointers in 21.3 minutes. Making matters worse for him was a sprained left knee in March that sidelined the Nuggets wing for a month. Entering the season with a Yahoo! ADP of 142, Strawther finished outside the top-300 in eight- and nine-cat formats. While the expectations for him weren't high among fantasy managers, the hope was that Strawther would be more productive.
Fantasy Recaps/Look-Aheads
Jamal Murray
After being limited to 59 games the season prior, Murray made 67 appearances in 2024-25, the most in a season for him since the 2018-19 campaign (75). He also averaged a career-high 36.1 minutes per game and did not miss more than three consecutive games until late-April. A sprained right ankle cost Murray six games, with the Nuggets going 2-4 with wins over the Jazz and Kings. While he did have to deal with various nicks and bruises throughout the season, Murray was an excellent guard to have rostered in fantasy leagues.
During the regular season, he averaged 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.3 three-pointers per game, shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 88.6 percent from the foul line. A top-20 player in nine-cat formats, Murray was a top-25 player in eight-cat formats, exceeding his Yahoo! ADP of 54 by a significant margin. Based on his play this season, should fantasy managers select Murray within the first two rounds of standard league drafts? Probably not. He should not be on draft boards after the first 50 picks, especially since players like Boston's Jayson Tatum and Dallas' Kyrie Irving will be unavailable to begin the 2025-26 season.
Just an insane finish from Jamal Murray 👏
4Q getting started live on ESPN
pic.twitter.com/6wl3sHpIsG
Michael Porter Jr.
From a statistical standpoint, the 2024-25 season was the best of Porter's NBA career. He posted career-high averages in points (18.2) and assists (2.1) while also averaging 7.0 rebounds, 0.6 steals and 2.5 three-pointers per game. Making 77 appearances, Porter shot 50.4 percent from the field, the first time he made more than half his attempts in a season since the 2020-21 campaign, and 76.8 percent from the foul line. While availability was an issue at the start of his NBA career, MPJ has played in 158 of a possible 164 regular-season games over the past two seasons.
So, why do some appear to be 'down' on Porter? His play during the postseason has a lot to do with it, despite MPJ suffering a shoulder injury during the first round that limited his effectiveness. After scoring 21 points in Denver's Game 3 overtime win over the Thunder, he scored 10 points or less in each of the final four games, including a six-point effort in Game 7. Also impacting conversations surrounding Porter and his future in Denver may be his contract, as his current deal runs through the 2026-27 campaign. With a little over $79 million remaining on his deal, MPJ may be the player who moves if Denver decides to overhaul Jokic and Murray's supporting cast. As a Nugget, Porter should be a safe middle-round option in fantasy drafts, but many managers want more.
Aaron Gordon
To say this was the most challenging season of Gordon's NBA career would likely be an understatement. Having lost his older brother during the offseason, the Nuggets forward changed his uniform number to honor him. And there was the calf strain that proved problematic throughout the regular season, with Gordon appearing in just 51 games. He averaged 14.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.5 steals and 1.5 three-pointers in 28.4 minutes, shooting 53.1 percent from the field and 81 percent from the foul line.
While Gordon had better seasons regarding overall field goal percentage, this was the best season of his career as a perimeter shooter. In addition to the career-high mark at the foul line, he shot 43.6 percent from three on 3.4 attempts per game. During the playoffs, Gordon made nearly 38 percent of his 4.1 three-point attempts and was also an 86 percent shooter from the foul line. With a Yahoo! ADP of 116, fantasy managers did not have wild expectations for Gordon ahead of the 2024-25 season. How much faith will managers have that his improvements as a shooter will last? The answer will determine just how high his ADP is next fall.
Russell Westbrook
The Nuggets signed Westbrook to a two-year deal last summer, the second being a player option. While the maddening moments in which he exhibited poor shot selection or was a bit too loose with the basketball remained, the veteran point guard provided solid value for the balance of the season. Appearing in 75 games, Westbrook averaged 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 three-pointers in 27.9 minutes. Shooting 44.9 percent from the field and 66.1 percent from the foul line, Westbrook's scoring average was more than two points higher than his 2023-24 mark with the Clippers (11.1 ppg).
As has been the case for most of his career, there was a gap between Westbrook's value in eight- and nine-cat formats. Ranked just outside the top-100 in eight-cat formats, he was outside the top-175 in nine-cat formats due to an average of 3.2 turnovers per game. Westbrook's usage only trailed Jokic and Murray among Nuggets players, which was a bit surprising, given the role he was asked to fill. While deep-league managers may be willing to use a late-round pick on Westbrook, he'll be most valuable as a streamer when a team is down a starter. And that's if he decides to pick up his player option and remain with the Nuggets.
Peyton Watson
After playing 80 games last season, Watson made 68 appearances for the Nuggets in 2024-25 with 18 starts. His most significant opportunities came about when Denver was without Gordon due to his injuries, and as a starter, Watson averaged 11.6 points per game on 54.9 percent shooting. For the season, he recorded career-high averages in points (8.1), rebounds (3.4), assists (1.4), steals (0.7), blocks (1.4) and three-pointers (0.7), shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 69.3 percent from the foul line.
Most valuable as a deep-league streamer, Watson failed to finish within the top-200 in eight- and nine-cat formats this season. Depending on what the Nuggets do this offseason, he may be a player worth watching in deeper leagues, but Watson does not appear to be a must-draft player currently.
Restricted Free Agents: Trey Alexander, P.J. Hall, Spencer Jones
Unrestricted Free Agents: DeAndre Jordan, Vlatko Cancar
Player Option: Russell Westbrook, Dario Saric

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2025 NBA Finals preview: Pacers-Thunder key matchups, schedule, biggest X-factor and championship prediction
2025 NBA Finals preview: Pacers-Thunder key matchups, schedule, biggest X-factor and championship prediction

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2025 NBA Finals preview: Pacers-Thunder key matchups, schedule, biggest X-factor and championship prediction

After an 82-game marathon, followed by three grueling rounds of postseason competition, we now approach the finish line of the 2024-25 NBA season. The Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder — the West's No. 1 seed, and the top overall seed in the postseason bracket — will take on the Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. It's the first postseason meeting between the two franchises. The Thunder enter looking for the franchise's first title in its Oklahoma City era, and first since the former Seattle SuperSonics won it all back in 1979. Indiana similarly heads into the Finals looking to break a lengthy championship drought: The Pacers haven't raised a title banner since the great Slick Leonard led them to three ABA championships in four years between 1970 and 1973, before the ABA-NBA merger. NBA Finals preview What we know about the Thunder That they've been the best team in the NBA since October's opening tip. Advertisement Oklahoma City had the NBA's second-best record and net rating during the 2023-24 season, and were one of only two teams to finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. (The other, the Boston Celtics, won the NBA championship.) And then they brought back all of their most important players, traded for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein. Here's what I posited as the Thunder's best-case scenario when I previewed their season all the way back at the beginning of October: The newcomers function exactly as envisioned, resulting in the Thunder fielding top-two units on both ends and proving to be the class of the league from the opening tip. [Shai Gilgeous-Alexander] wins MVP, [Jalen Williams] and Chet [Holmgren] earn All-Star nods, and the rest of the supporting cast earns Bricktown's undying affection. Oklahoma City returns to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012 — and wins the franchise's first championship since the move from Seattle. At the risk of spraining something by patting myself on the back … kind of nailed it? The Thunder finished second in points scored per possession and first in points allowed per possession, according to Cleaning the Glass. Hartenstein averaged a double-double to go with nearly four assists and a block in just 27.9 minutes per game, shooting 58% from the field and holding opponents to 56.3% shooting at the rim. Caruso knocked down 3-pointers at a league-average clip on higher volume than Josh Giddey had, posted a near-4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and was arguably the most disruptive individual defender in the NBA on a per-minute basis. That'll work. Gilgeous-Alexander, the league's premier driver and most elusive scorer, did win MVP. Williams, a picture-perfect do-it-all complement, did make the All-Star (and All-NBA, and All-Defensive) team. Holmgren very well might've joined them at All-Star Weekend if not for an early-season hip fracture; he'd return in February and finish the regular season averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks per game while shooting 37% from 3 on more than 100 attempts. (There have only been three such seasons in NBA history. Holmgren, two years into his career, has two of them. Unicorn stuff.) The rest of the rotation, from defensive menaces Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace to energy-injecting wings Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, play their roles to perfection. Advertisement The results have been historic: the seventh team ever to win 68 games; the highest average margin of victory ever; a defense that profiles as one of the stingiest since the ABA-NBA merger; the best era-adjusted efficiency differential since the '96 Bulls; the top overall seed in the 2025 postseason. After making quick work of the Grizzlies in Round 1, Oklahoma City survived a titanic test from Nikola Jokić and his champion Nuggets in a seven-game second-round war before outclassing the Timberwolves in the conference finals. The Thunder went 12-4 in the tougher conference, outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions — on pace for the best net rating of any champion since the Year 1 KD Warriors. Provided, of course, they spend the next two weeks looking like they have for the last eight months: like one of the best teams we've ever seen. What we know about the Pacers That they are damn sure not a fluke. Plenty of pundits dismissed Indiana's run to the 2024 Eastern Conference finals as a product of merely taking advantage of multiple opponents missing injured stars. That carried over into the 2025 postseason, as Indiana faced a Bucks team missing Damian Lillard, and a Cavaliers side that saw Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, De'Andre Hunter and later Donovan Mitchell all miss time. Advertisement The thing about that, though, as Pacers coach Rick Carlisle noted after knocking off the Knicks: 'You still gotta win the games.' The Pacers did that, often in thrilling and heartstopping fashion, to build on last spring's success and put themselves in position to move on to the championship round. And after New York made them look uncomfortable in a Game 5 win, they simply returned to their first principles — speed, ball pressure, body and ball movement, sharing — and finally broke the Knicks … just like they've done to damn near everybody else for six months. After a rough 10-15 start plagued by injuries to starters Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, among other contributors, the Pacers have gone 52-21 — more victories in that stretch than any team save their Finals opponents. They have the NBA's No. 5 offense and No. 9 defense in that span — the culmination of a dramatic two-way turnaround from the summer of 2021, when the Pacers brought Carlisle back to helm a rebuild that went from 25 wins to the Finals in just four seasons. 'Well, if you have the right player to build around,' Carlisle said, 'it can happen much faster than you think.' Advertisement The Pacers found the right player to build around on February 8, 2022. Haliburton lives to push the pace, hunting hit-ahead passes and opportunities to probe for early, easy offense; his superpower, though, is managing to inject that kind of flow, pace and energy into the game while maintaining one of the lowest turnover rates among high-volume ball-handlers. With Haliburton at the controls, Indiana has finished second and ninth in offensive efficiency in the last two seasons — the first time the Pacers have fielded consecutive top-10 offenses since the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 seasons. (Which, not coincidentally, was the last time the Pacers made the Finals.) Pacers president Kevin Pritchard and general manager Chad Buchanan saw what kind of pilot Haliburton was and set about building a sound-barrier-breaking spaceship around him, retrofitting the roster to surround him with sprinters and shooters. That resulted in a team capable of getting buckets in bunches … but one that still struggled to get stops, lacked size on the perimeter and was missing a credible star-caliber second weapon. Advertisement 'And then, look,' Carlisle said. 'The Siakam trade took things to another level.' It's almost unbelievable how perfectly Pascal Siakam has fit into precisely the holes that the Pacers needed filling: an All-Star comfortable working off of Haliburton or pairing with him in the two-man game, exploiting mismatches against smaller defenders in the post or slower defenders with his face-up game, running the floor like a greyhound to create easy baskets for the offense and unyielding stress for the opposing defense, making the extra pass and calling his own number depending on what the game calls for. He does all of that while playing solid defense across multiple positions, never turning the ball over, and providing the kind of hard-won leadership to which even Indiana's longest-tenured pros can turn. 'You brought in a champion,' Pacers center Myles Turner said. 'You brought in someone that's been there before.' Advertisement They all know what it's like now: They've faced the pressure, they've met the moment, and they've reached the highest level the sport has to offer. Four more wins and they're immortal. Getting those wins against the best team in the NBA will be the toughest challenge Indiana has faced yet. Get them, though, and not a soul alive will be able to form their mouth to call these Pacers a fluke again. Head-to-head Oklahoma City won the regular-season series, 2-0. In the first meeting, on the day after Christmas, with Indiana just starting to turn things around after its early-season morass, the Thunder battled back from a 22-7 deficit to score a 120-114 win at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. It was one of Haliburton's quietest nights of the season — just 4 points on 2-for-6 shooting, though he did add 8 assists against just 1 turnover in 35 minutes — as Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault dispatched Dort and Wallace to shadow him all over the court. Advertisement Indiana responded by going to its Plan B: getting Haliburton off the ball, kicking it to Nembhard, and allowing him to attack 4-on-4 in a more spaced-out floor. The Pacers were still able to generate offense — six double-digit scorers, led by a 23-9-7 night from Nembhard — but just had no answer for Gilgeous-Alexander, who torched them for 45 points (11 of which came in the final 3:42, as OKC closed on a 17-7 run) to go with 8 assists, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 steal and just 1 turnover in 38 minutes of work — a top-15 individual performance of the entire NBA season, according to John Hollinger's Game Score metric, which aims to provide a rough estimate of how productive a particular player was on a particular night. The rematch came in late March, and was a nip-and-tuck battle … for about a quarter and a half. Oklahoma City ripped off a 20-5 run over a four-minute span just before halftime to blow the game open, held Indiana's starters at bay to open the second half, and then delivered another four-minute 19-7 burst — with SGA off the floor, in J-Dub-led small-ball lineups — to push the game out of reach. The Thunder led by as many as 25 in the fourth quarter, which Haliburton, Siakam, Turner and Nesmith sat out completely, and cruised to a 132-111 win. Advertisement The 133.3 offensive rating that OKC posted in the win marked Indiana's fourth-worst defensive outing of the season. And if you want to get a sense of just how frightening this Thunder team is … it wasn't even a top-20 offensive night for them. Matchup to watch Indiana's turnover avoidance vs. Oklahoma City's turnover creation In both the regular season and playoffs, no team has forced turnovers on a higher share of opponents' possessions than the Thunder, whose roster-wide commitment to intense physicality and ball pressure has produced one of the best defenses in recent memory. In both the regular season and playoffs, the Pacers have owned the NBA's third-lowest turnover rate — a massive reason why, since they got healthy in early December, they've also owned one of the five or so best offenses in the league. Advertisement Strength, meet strength. Haliburton's superpower as a lead initiator — one he put on full display in his brilliant Game 4 performance against New York — is his exceptional ability to make audacious passes at breakneck speed without giving the ball to the other team. Over the last three seasons, only three players who have played at least 5,000 total minutes have assisted on more than 40% of their teammates' baskets while turning it over on fewer than 15% of their team's offensive possessions: Nikola Jokić, Luka Donćic and Haliburton — who has the lowest turnover rate (11.7%) of the bunch. 'I take pride in taking care of the ball,' Haliburton said after Indiana's Game 4 win over the Knicks. 'I'd rather do really anything else on the basketball court than turn the ball over.' (Joseph Raines/Yahoo Sports Illustration) Oklahoma City, conversely, would love nothing more than to take the ball away from you. The Thunder led the NBA in steals, deflections, loose balls recovered on defense and points scored off of turnovers this season, and tied for third in points per possession added in transition. They want to harass you into making a mistake, and then make you pay for it — over and over and over again. Advertisement OKC didn't force a hailstorm of miscues in its two regular-season matchups with Indiana. Haliburton committed only one turnover in 64 minutes against Oklahoma City during the regular season. And as a team, the Pacers turned the ball over only 24 times in two games against the Thunder, leading to 26 points — fewer points per game off of turnovers than OKC scored against anyone else in the league. The 'when' of those boo-boos matters, though. In the March meeting, the Pacers led late into the first quarter … and then committed five turnovers in the next nine minutes of game time, with a missed layup that the Thunder immediately turned into an SGA layup on the other end to boot. Before you knew it, Indiana had lost its offensive rhythm, Oklahoma City had found one, and Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. were up double digits. As Owen Phillips has noted at The F5, turnover margin has become arguably the defining win condition in the modern NBA. During the 2024-25 NBA regular season, teams that won the turnover battle went 668-461, a .592 winning percentage, according to CourtSketch. In the postseason, the team that commits fewer turnovers is 54-20, a .730 winning percentage — equivalent to 60 wins over an 82-game season. Oklahoma City will try to do what it did to Memphis, Denver and Minnesota: tighten the vise grip on and off the ball, reducing the amount of airspace in which the offense has to operate until it's so tightly constricted that the Thunder can just rip the ball away. Indiana, on the other hand, will try to do what it did to Milwaukee, Cleveland and New York: vary its angles of attack and take advantage of being able to run five-out spacing at virtually all times, spreading OKC out enough that even the most hellacious unit in the league can't move far enough and fast enough to keep up with the flight of the ball as it leads navy blue-and-gold-clad bodies into open shots. Whoever's able to tilt the possession battle in their favor figures to have a leg up in what promises to be an all-out sprint of a series. Biggest X-factor How does Holmgren change the matchup? Holmgren didn't play in either game against Indiana during the regular season. He missed the first game during his recovery from a fractured hip, and the second as part of Oklahoma City's management plan for his return from that injury. Advertisement At the risk of overstating the obvious: Adding a 7-foot-1, 3-point shooting, face-up driving rim protector and rebounder who plays 30 minutes a night figures to alter the chemistry of the matchup at least a little. But how? For one thing: Who does Chet guard? During the regular-season matchups, Hartenstein opened up on Turner and Williams began on Siakam, with Dort on Haliburton, Wallace on Nembhard, and SGA taking Indiana's fifth starter (Mathurin in the first game, Nesmith in the second). With Holmgren starting, do you slot him onto Turner, stretch-5-for-stretch-5, put Hartenstein on Siakam — a matchup he saw plenty during both the regular season and the 2024 Eastern Conference semifinals when he was with the Knicks — and slide J-Dub over to Nembhard? Can Indiana make hay out of that, whether with Turner leveraging his strength advantage over Holmgren or Siakam using his speed to dust Hartenstein? If Dort goes shutdown-corner on Haliburton, can Nembhard (who averaged 19.5 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists per game on 50% shooting against OKC in the regular season) use that bionic shoulder to create space against the 6-foot-6, 220-pound Williams? Advertisement (Also: Daigneault hasn't been shy about toggling the matchups to get his wings cross-matched onto bigs and vice versa — think Wallace on Turner and Hartenstein on Nesmith — when he thinks it might wrong-foot the offense. If and when the Thunder juggle the matchups, can the Pacers' wings take advantage of the extra space and make them pay?) Conversely: How does Indiana defend Chet, and what are the downstream effects of that? The Pacers mostly guarded him with centers during their two meetings in the 2023-24 regular season; that was before OKC added Hartenstein, on whom Indiana stationed its centers with Holmgren absent. Wallace starting in Holmgren's place in both games gave Haliburton a like-sized, lower-usage 'hiding' spot on defense, and allowed Carlisle to station Siakam on Dort, off of whom he could roam to play free safety and muck things up as a help defender. If Carlisle starts more or less straight up — Turner on Hartenstein and Siakam on Holmgren, with Nembhard and Nesmith taking Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams — does the need to be more attentive to Holmgren on the perimeter make it tougher for Siakam to load up in help position? With Haliburton then slotted onto Dort, how hard does OKC look to hit its guard-guard screening actions, trying to hunt the Pacers point guard more effectively than their Eastern competitors were able to in service of forcing Haliburton to handle even more physicality? And if the Pacers try to handle that hunting by pre-switching off the ball, a kind of three-card monte game aimed at keeping Haliburton out of the action, will the Thunder have opportunities to attack gaps and compromise the Pacers rotation? Other key questions I'm curious about Crunch-time lineups Oklahoma City Thunder You can write Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams' names in Sharpie. J-Dub has played 131 of OKC's 192 fourth-quarter minutes this postseason (68.2%) and SGA has played 107 (55.7%). That includes nearly all of the Thunder's (comparatively rare) 27 'clutch' minutes — defined by NBA Advanced Stats as when the score is within points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Holmgren (97 fourth-quarter minutes, 23 'clutch' minutes) will likely be manning the middle, too. Advertisement Beyond Oklahoma City's burgeoning Big Three, though, Daigneault tends to mix and match. If rebounding and rim protection are the top priorities, Hartenstein will close; if ball pressure, perimeter switchability and shooting are paramount, expect to see plenty of Dort, Caruso and/or Wallace. Whether they go big, small or somewhere in between, Oklahoma City has the goods to throw out nightmarish defensive lineups that provide enough space for SGA to go to work. That's why, despite hardly ever letting contests come down to one or two possessions late, the Thunder have tended to fare awfully well within tighter confines: They're 21-10 in 'clutch' games, outscoring opponents by 42 points in 94 regular- and postseason crunch-time minutes. Indiana Pacers Nembhard, Turner, Siakam, Nesmith and Haliburton lead Indiana in fourth-quarter minutes during the postseason, and that quintet has outscored the Pacers' opposition by 18 points in 51 final-frame minutes. They've also played nearly all of the team's 'clutch' minutes. Advertisement Carlisle has demonstrated his willingness to reach down the bench for a change-up if he thinks one's necessary: T.J. McConnell for point-of-attack pressure and an extra ball-handler, Ben Sheppard for a bit more size and shooting on the perimeter, Obi Toppin for some more offensive juice and athleticism, Thomas Bryant to stretch the floor, Jarace Walker (if healthy) for more mobility up front, etc. For the most part, though, expect Carlisle to stick with the unit that got him here — the group best equipped to play the style on both ends of the floor that can make Indiana such a difficult puzzle for opponents to solve. Prediction: Thunder in 6 The Pacers are a phenomenal team: an explosive, efficient, fast-paced and well-drilled offense, paired with a physical, aggressive, versatile, well-schemed defense. They're deep and disciplined, creative and well-coached — a beautifully conceived and constructed modern NBA team. It's just that the Thunder are all of that, too, only better at … well, just about all of it. Advertisement I picked Oklahoma City to hoist the Larry O'B before the season, I did it again before the playoffs, and as impressed as I've been by Indiana, I see no reason to switch up now. SGA caps one of the most incredible individual seasons in NBA history by winning Finals MVP, and the Thunder make all of us wonder whether all that talk about the death of dynasties might not have been a bit premature. Series odds (via BetMGM) Oklahoma City Thunder (-700) Indiana Pacers (+500) Series schedule (all times Eastern) Game 1: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Thursday, June 5 (8:30 p.m., ABC) Game 2: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Sunday, June 8 (8 p.m., ABC) Advertisement Game 3: Oklahoma City at Indiana on Wednesday, June 11 (8:30 p.m., ABC) Game 4: Oklahoma City at Indiana on Friday, June 13 (8:30 p.m., ABC) *Game 5: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Monday, June 16 (8:30 p.m., ABC) *Game 6: Oklahoma City at Indiana on Thursday, June 19 (8:30 p.m., ABC) *Game 7: Indiana at Oklahoma City on Sunday, June 22 (8 p.m., ABC) *if necessary

2025 NBA playoff predictions, odds: Back Thunder to sweep underdog Pacers
2025 NBA playoff predictions, odds: Back Thunder to sweep underdog Pacers

Fox Sports

time25 minutes ago

  • Fox Sports

2025 NBA playoff predictions, odds: Back Thunder to sweep underdog Pacers

After a lengthy layoff between rounds, the NBA Finals begin on Thursday. It will feature the upstart Indiana Pacers taking on the juggernaut Oklahoma City Thunder. These two teams have taken very different paths to get here. The Pacers were once 10-15 in the early stages of the season and looked like they might struggle to even return to the postseason after such a sluggish start. They eventually overcame that rocky start and captured the 4-seed in the Eastern Conference. The Thunder had no such struggles, as they enter the Finals with an absurd 80-18 overall record — including the playoffs. They even set the record for most double-digit wins as the 1-seed in the Western Conference this season. OKC not only had a record-setting 54 wins by 10 or more but won a staggering twelve games by 30 points or more. has some fascinating tidbits about this series. Betting on these two teams to meet in the Finals prior to the season would have paid 100-1 at BetMGM, while the Pacers were 25-1 to win the East and 66-1 to win the NBA title. This was an incredibly unlikely run, and considering the Pacers' 10-15 start, it's even more amazing. But can they finish the job? I'm skeptical. However, I am somewhat hesitant to underestimate this Pacers team, considering how impressive it has been through the first three rounds. Indy is led by Hall of Fame coach Rick Carlisle and the aptly-named Pacers want to run and gun, playing at a fast, frenetic tempo. But that's usually not the formula for pulling off an upset against a more talented team. The Thunder are young, deep, and outstanding defensively. They will thrive at playing a fast-paced style. What gave the Thunder the most trouble so far this postseason was when the Nuggets dragged them into a slow, half-court game. It also helped that Denver had three-time MVP Nikola Jokić. I think the underdog story comes to an end here. It'll be like when the aforementioned Nuggets quickly disposed of the underdog Heat in five games to win the championship in 2023. The Pacers are a fantastic story, but this is a brutal matchup, considering their style of play. The Thunder, on the other hand, have a plethora of viable perimeter options for defending Pacers' star Tyrese Haliburton. FanDuel had "OKC to sweep" at +330 just hours before I wrote this, and it's now the best number on the market at +290. But it's still a bet that I would make. The Thunder are heavy -750 series favorites, and losing would be a historic Finals upset. But chalk should prevail here, as I expect the Thunder to make short work of the Pacers. PICK: OKC (+290) 4-0 Correct Series Score PICK: Total games Under 5.5 (-135) Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network. ​​Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account , and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily! recommended Get more from National Basketball Association Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

Jay Wright colleague reveals former Villanova coach's chances of taking Knicks job
Jay Wright colleague reveals former Villanova coach's chances of taking Knicks job

New York Post

time26 minutes ago

  • New York Post

Jay Wright colleague reveals former Villanova coach's chances of taking Knicks job

Tom Thibodeau was shown the door, setting the potential stage for Jay Wright to again coach his former star players at what has been called 'The Villanova Knicks.' Well, not so fast, according to Wright's CBS colleague Seth Davis. Advertisement 'I have been working with Jay Wright on TV for three years,' Davis wrote in an X post Tuesday. 'Based on every conversation we have had, I would say there is a greater chance that I will be the next Knicks coach than him. The difference is if they call me, I will say yes.' Davis, a CBS studio analyst since 2003, has been working with Wright since 2022 after the coach retired following 21 seasons at Villanova. 3 Jay Wright sits alongside Jalen Brunson to retire the Villanova legends jersety. NBAE via Getty Images Advertisement Wright said at the time he lost the 'edge' needed to coach at the highest level. His tenure was highlighted by leading Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges to two national championships in 2016 and 2018, while Josh Hart contributed to that first title. 3 Seth Davis says no chance on a Knicks-Jay Wright union. Getty Images Advertisement Though he's now an an analyst, Wright has been thrust into the Knicks' coaching picture after the team was eliminated in six games by the Pacers and then booted Thibodeau. Wright responded to a question about his dream job on 'Pardon My Take' in 2020 and said 'the Knicks,' but added 'we're kidding, of course.' DraftKings oddsmakers have set Wright as a long shot to be the Knicks' next coach, although The Post's Stefan Bondy has said the sportsbook's leader, ex-Nuggets coach Michael Malone, is not an option. Advertisement 3 Tom THibodeau wS OUSTED AFTER WINNING 51 GAMES. Getty Images The Knicks' next coach will inherit a must-win situation following a conference finals appearance and the East possibly more open due to Jayson Tatum potentially missing the 2025-26 season due to a torn Achilles suffered against New York in Game 4 of the second round. The Knicks reached their first conference finals since 2000.

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