Nifty momentum dull, don't expect vertical rise: Anand James on how to trade this week
Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today.
Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Economic Times
July 22–25: Critical time windows could trigger Nifty reversals, says Harshubh Shah
Indian equity markets closed lower for the third straight week, with the Nifty50 slipping 0.7% to end below the 25,000 mark for the week ending July 18, 2025.A sharp uptick in foreign institutional investor (FPI) selling has amplified the weakness. According to NSDL data, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 10,775 crore so far in beneath the surface of price action, a subtler force is at work: time. July 15–19: Time Levels Guide Market Moves In our previous analysis, we highlighted July 15 as a pivotal date—and the market respected this projection. On Friday, July 19, once the low of July 15 was breached, the Nifty witnessed aggressive selling. Even the high made on July 15 proved significant: a failed breakout attempt near that level on July 16 triggered fresh declines. Critical support zones worked well last week: 24,978 acted as a crucial support level before Friday's 25,085 mark (July 15's low) also played a vital role, as its breach led to a steep again, the market demonstrated that both price levels and time zones matter in short-term trading decisions. Precision in Time-Based Analysis: Intraday Accuracy Unmatched Throughout the week, time analysis proved its merit with remarkable precision. Specific intraday time slots consistently aligned with swing highs, lows, and key reversals: July 14: 10:20 AM – Swing high, followed by a downtrend 11:30 AM – Day's low formed near this time July 15: 9:45 AM – Day's low formed 2:45 PM – Swing low marked with precision July 16–18: Multiple intraday pivots around key time slots like 10:45 AM, 12:30 PM, and 2:45 PM Such consistency confirms that Time Analysis, when combined with Price Action, can provide traders with clear, actionable insights. Outlook for July 21–25: Big Moves ExpectedKey Support Zones: 24,978 / 24,850 / 24,676 / 24,538 / 24,450 Key Resistance Levels: 25,080 / 25,147 / 25,320 / 25,434 / 25,566 / 25,600 Intraday Time Slots to Watch: Key Dates to Track July 22–23: Expect swift intraday moves — ideal for short-term traders and 24–25: Watch for a potential top or bottom formation. Positional traders should stay alert. Conclusion While many traders focus solely on chart patterns, indicators, or news flow, the underlying rhythm of Time remains a powerful yet underappreciated tool. The coming week holds key signals hidden in specific time windows. Stay prepared — sharp moves could catch the unprepared off-guard. (The author is Director, Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd. SEBI Registration – INH000009676) (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Mint
3 hours ago
- Mint
Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: The reason why bulls aren't stepping out yet
Ticker is a weekly newsletter by Vijay L Bhambwani. Subscribe to Mint's newsletters to get them directly in your email inbox. Dear reader, Last week, I wrote optimism was giving way to desolation. Bulls were showing a lack of conviction not seen for months. Traded volumes shrank sizeably, and take-home profits shrank significantly. It became a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. Traded volumes were poor because profits were meagre, and profits were meagre because traded volumes took a hit. This vicious circle will be broken only after traded volumes rise significantly. Where yields on theta decay (collecting premiums) on option writing are concerned, the low-hanging fruit has been picked already. The road ahead seems to be mildly uphill. That means increased capital intensity and lower take-home profits. That means a small portion of present traders may exit the markets, atleast temporarily. US president Trump continued to threaten nations with additional tariffs and kept markets on the edge. Particularly noteworthy was the threat to impose sanctions on Russian oil exports and nations that bought Russian oil and gas. That includes India. Overseas institutional investors continued to press short sales on Indian markets inspite of announcements of a near breakthrough in India-US trade deal. That was an overhang of overhead supply for retail traders who were stuck with purchases at higher levels. This phenomena of overhead supply occurs when a sizeable number of traders are waiting in the wings to offload their open trades as soon as they reach break-even levels. This usually acts like a speed-breaker for a bull market. That means buyers must not only buy in large volumes but they must continue to buy in large volumes till all the overhead supply is absorbed and selling pressure subsides. That is a challenging task. It will show up on your trading terminal's screen on the snap quote window. If the bid/offer spreads (difference between the best buyer and best sellers limit orders) narrow to within 5-6 ticks, you know liquidity is improving. The value of a tick is 5 paise per share for stocks trading above ₹ 250. In the commodity markets, industrial metals may see month-end short-covering lifting prices. That can have a trickle-down effect on stock prices of some metal mining companies' stock prices. Much will depend on the overall market sentiment prevalent this week. If sentiments are cautious or weak, the rally in these stocks may be subdued as well. Public sector undertakings (PSUs) will continue to witness hectic activity in two-way trades as traders are heavily invested in this segment. Banks will attract greater attention among PSU stocks as this segment commands the heaviest weightage in the Nifty. Precious metals witnessed profit-taking at higher levels as the US dollar index gained strength. Safe-haven buying eased mildly. If you are a patient long-term investor, look beyond 2025 and the bullish story is still intact. In the energy space, the markets continue to remain adequately supplied, and rallies are proving to be seasonal and short-lived. Higher levels are running into a wall of selling. While geopolitical and/or natural events (June to October is the hurricane season in the US) can trigger short-covering, it is likely to be short-lived. Fixed income investors should continue to keep the powder dry as market indicators points towards little or no room for actual rates to fall. While headline (policy announcement) rates may fall, borrowers are unlikely to access availability of funds at those rates. Trade light as markets lack depth and bid/offer spreads are too wide for comfort. Maintain tail risk (Hacienda) hedges on your trades to protect your capital from sudden shocks. A tutorial video on tail risk (Hacienda) hedges is here - Rear View Mirror Let us assess what happened last week so we can guesstimate what to expect in the coming week. The fall was led by the Bank Nifty whereas the Nifty brought up the rear. The US dollar index (DXY) firmed up and exerted pressure on emerging markets including India. A strong dollar dragged bullion and oil prices lower too. The rupee fell against a firm dollar and that made banking stocks more volatile. Indian 10-year bond yields eased marginally, which cushioned declines in the Bank Nifty. The NSE's market capitalization rose mildly, which indicates mild optimism present in the markets even as headline indices remain under pressure. Market wide position limits (MWPL) rose routinely, but gains were marginal. US markets rose and provided tail winds to our markets and limited the downsides. Retail Risk Appetite I use a simple yet highly accurate yardstick for measuring the conviction levels of retail traders – where are they deploying money. I measure what percentage of the turnover was contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments. If they trade more of futures which require sizeable capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the futures space, index futures are less volatile compared to stock futures. A higher footprint in stock futures shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are average of all trading days of the week): The high-risk and capital-intensive futures segment saw no change in turnover contribution for the week. In the relatively lower-risk options segment, turnover rose in the lowest-risk segment in the derivatives category – index options. These are also the least capital-intensive to trade. Overall, risk appetite fell off the cliff in the derivatives segment. Matryoshka Analysis Let us peel layer after layer of statistical data to arrive at the core message of the first chart I share is the NSE advance- decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way winds are blowing. This simple yet accurate indicator computes the ratio of number of the rising stocks compared to falling stocks. As long as gaining stocks outnumber the losers, bulls are dominant. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'one marshmallow' traders. These are pure intraday traders. The Nifty clocked smaller losses last week and the advance-decline ratio climbed marginally. At 1.11 (prior week 0.75) it shows 111 gainers for every 100 losers. That shows intraday traders shower improved optimism last week. As long as the reading stays above 1.0 sustainably, bulls still have a chance. A tutorial video on the marshmallow theory in trading is here - The second chart I share is the market wide position limits (MWPL). This measures the amount of exposure utilized by traders in the derivatives (F&O space as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'two marshmallow' traders. These are deep-pocketed, high-conviction traders who roll over their trades to the next session/s. The MWPL reading edged higher mildly, but was lower than the reading in the comparable week last month. That tells us optimism, though present in the market, was lower as traders were cautious about enhancing their exposure levels. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways than one is available here - The third chart I share is my in-house indicator 'impetus.' It measures the force in any price move. Last week both indices fell with rising impetus readings. That tells us the selling momentum was higher and traders willingly participated in the selling process. Ideally prices and impetus readings must rise together to indicate a sustainable bull market. The final chart I share is my in-house indicator 'LWTD.' It computes lift, weight, thrust and drag encountered by any security. These are four forces that any powered aircraft faces during flight; so, applying it to traded securities helps a trader estimate prevalent sentiments. The Nifty clocked smaller losses last week and the LWTD reading was flat. That tells me fresh buying support is unlikely to change radically this week. Short-covering can cushion declines but it takes aggressive fresh buying to overcome overhead supply and trigger a new high. A tutorial video on interpreting the LWTD indicator is here - Nifty's Verdict The Nifty's weekly candlestick chart shows a third consecutive week of declines. The magnitude of the fall was, however, smaller. The peak made three weeks ago was marginally lower than the previous peak in September 2024. The support I specified last week at the 24,800 mark held, and that tells me bulls still have a fighting chance as long as they can defend this threshold. The price is above the 25-week moving average, which is a proxy for the six-month average of an average investor. The medium-term outlook remains optimistic as long as this level holds. A fresh reliable upthrust is possible only after the 25,750 recent high is overcome forcefully. That will confirm that the overhead supply has been absorbed. Your Call to Action Watch the 24,800 level as a near-term support. Only a break out above the 25,750 level raises the possibility of the bull market resuming. Last week, I estimated ranges between 58,075 – 55,450 and 25,750 – 24,550 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Both indices traded within their specified resistance levels. This week, I estimate ranges between 57,500 – 55,050 and 25,525 – 24,400 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Trade light with strict stop losses. Avoid trading counters with spreads wider than 8 ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO of a proprietary trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani
Time of India
4 hours ago
- Time of India
Is momentum only about price? ICICI Prudential wants to redefine momentum investing
Edited excerpts from a chat with the fund manager: Q: What makes this the right time to launch a momentum-based fund? Are current market conditions supportive, or is this a bold bet against the tide? Live Events Q: You focus on both price and earnings momentum. What's the secret sauce in your proprietary model? Do you tilt more toward one or is it a dynamic mix? Q: Can you walk us through how the model identifies "sustainable momentum" versus short-lived euphoria? Q: How do you guard against sector overexposure in a momentum-based strategy? Q: What role do macro triggers like rate cycles, elections, or global events play in your strategy? Q: What role do small and midcap stocks play, especially since momentum often builds faster in those segments? Q: Investors are always chasing alpha. Can this fund consistently beat benchmarks, or is momentum too cyclical? Q: How often do you churn the portfolio? Does momentum require higher turnover, and how do you manage the costs? Q: Momentum investing can struggle in market corrections. How does the fund manage drawdowns? (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Traditional momentum investing has long chased rising stock prices, often falling prey to market euphoria and speculation. ICICI Prudential AMC is challenging this approach with its newly launched Active Momentum Fund, which prioritizes earnings momentum over pure price Manager Manasvi Shah argues that sustainable momentum stems from strengthening earnings trajectories rather than temporary price surges. This earnings-driven strategy aims to capture intrinsic value drivers while avoiding sentiment-based leveraging strong research capabilities to distinguish between sustainable earnings momentum and fleeting market excitement, ICICI Prudential positions this fund as an " all-weather equity strategy " that can work across market cycles—potentially establishing a new paradigm in India's mutual fund the strategy focuses on capturing momentum in company or sector earnings, it is designed as an all-weather equity strategy. Historically, across market cycles, certain companies and sectors with stronger earnings trends tend to outperform the broader market. An earnings-revision-based approach, like ICICI Prudential Active Momentum, is inherently investing, particularly with an earnings focus, is still relatively nascent in the Indian mutual fund space but has significant potential to evolve into a major category over the coming momentum is often driven by sentiment or speculation, our fund avoids non-fundamental triggers. The core focus is on earnings momentum, because ultimately, earnings drive intrinsic value—and, consequently, stock the strategy centers on earnings momentum, it avoids the influence of non-fundamental factors like temporary sentiment shifts or market noise. Generally, earnings trends are more sustainable than price movements. Our in-house research helps us differentiate between genuine earnings momentum and fleeting spikes, allowing for more informed stock follow a blend of bottom-up and top-down approaches. Momentum shifts across sectors and companies over time. Even in sectors where broader momentum is weak, some companies may be executing well and showing strong earnings trends. We aim for diversification across sectors and market capitalizations. While sectoral skews may occur, high concentration is macro or micro trigger that could impact earnings trajectories is a critical consideration. Since this is an actively managed fund, without fixed rebalancing cycles, we maintain the flexibility to respond swiftly to such events when they influence fund is capitalization-agnostic—we will invest wherever we find strong earnings momentum, whether in large, mid, or small caps, subject to maintaining portfolio liquidity. That's why our benchmark is the Nifty 500, rather than Nifty 50 or Nifty Midcap is a cycle-agnostic strategy that focuses on earnings revisions, which historically work across cycles. While pure momentum may falter during short-term volatility, earnings-based momentum tends to be stickier, making the approach more no fixed rebalancing schedule—we act as needed. While price-only momentum funds tend to churn more due to volatility, focusing on earnings provides greater stability and helps control turnover and momentum is more vulnerable in corrections. But earnings-focused strategies often hold up better, as companies with strong earnings trends tend to decline less. If earnings momentum weakens across the board, the fund has the flexibility to raise cash within defined limits. This combination of stock selection and cash allocation is key to managing downside and generating long-term alpha.
