Ontario premier says he doesn't trust Trump and warns the US president could reopen trade pact
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the federal government needs to prepare for that to happen this fall.
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Analysis-Trump may look like he's winning the trade war, but hurdles remain
By Andrea Shalal WASHINGTON (Reuters) -At a glance, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be winning the trade war he unleashed after returning to the White House in January, bending major trading partners to his will, imposing double-digit tariff rates on nearly all imports, narrowing the trade deficit, and raking in tens of billions of dollars a month in much-needed cash for federal government coffers. Significant hurdles remain, however, including whether U.S. trading partners will make good on investment and goods-purchase commitments, how much tariffs will drive up inflation or stymie demand and growth, and whether the courts allow many of his ad-hoc levies to stand. On inauguration day, the effective U.S. tariff rate was about 2.5%. It has since jumped to somewhere between 17% and 19%, according to a range of estimates. The Atlantic Council estimates it will edge closer to 20%, the highest in a century, with higher duties taking effect on Thursday. Trading partners have largely refrained from retaliatory tariffs, sparing the global economy from a more painful tit-for-tat trade war. Data on Tuesday showed a 16% narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit in June, while the U.S. trade gap with China shrank to its smallest in more than 21 years. American consumers have shown themselves to be more resilient than expected, but some recent data indicate the tariffs are already affecting jobs, growth and inflation. "The question is, what does winning mean?" said Josh Lipsky, who heads economic studies at the Atlantic Council. "He's raising tariffs on the rest of the world and avoiding a retaliatory trade war far easier than even he anticipated, but the bigger question is what effect does that have on the U.S. economy." Michael Strain, head of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said Trump's geopolitical victories could prove hollow. "In a geopolitical sense, Trump's obviously getting tons of concessions from other countries, but in an economic sense, he's not winning the trade war," he said. "What we're seeing is that he is more willing to inflict economic harm on Americans than other countries are willing to inflict on their nations. And I think of that as losing." Kelly Ann Shaw, a White House trade adviser during Trump's first term who is now a partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, said a still-strong economy and near-record-high stock prices "support a more aggressive tariff strategy." But Trump's tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and policies to boost energy production would take time to play out. "I think history will judge these policies, but he is the first president in my lifetime to make major changes to the global trading system," she added. DEALS SO FAR Trump has concluded eight framework agreements with the European Union, Japan, Britain, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines that impose tariffs on their goods ranging from 10% to 20%. That's well short of the "90 deals in 90 days" administration officials had touted in April, but they account for some 40% of U.S. trade flows. Adding in China, currently saddled with a 30% levy on its goods but likely to win another reprieve from even higher tariffs before an August 12 deadline, would raise that to nearly 54%. Deals aside, many of Trump's tariff actions have been mercurial. On Wednesday he ratcheted up pressure on India, doubling new tariffs on goods from there to 50% from 25% because of its imports of oil from Russia. The same rate is in store for goods from Brazil, after Trump complained about its prosecution of former leader Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. And Switzerland, which Trump had previously praised, is facing 39% tariffs after a conversation between its leader and Trump derailed a deal. Ryan Majerus, a trade lawyer who worked in both the first Trump administration and the Biden government, said what's been announced so far fails to address "longstanding, politically entrenched trade issues" that have bothered U.S. policymakers for decades, and getting there would likely take "months, if not years." He also noted they lack specific enforcement mechanisms for the big investments announced, including $550 billion for Japan and $600 billion for the EU. PROMISES AND RISKS Critics lit into European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after she agreed to a 15% tariff during a surprise meeting with Trump during his trip to Scotland last month, while gaining little in return. The deal frustrated winemakers and farmers, who had sought a zero-for-zero tariff. Francois-Xavier Huard, head of France's FNIL national dairy sector federation, said 15% was better than the threatened 30%, but would still cost dairy farmers millions of euros. European experts say von der Leyen's move did avert higher tariffs, calmed tensions with Trump, averting potentially higher duties on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and cars, while making largely symbolic pledges to buy $750 billion of U.S. strategic goods and invest over $600 billion. Meeting those pledges will fall to individual EU members and companies, and cannot be mandated by Brussels, trade experts and analysts note. U.S. officials insist Trump can re-impose higher tariffs if he believes the EU, Japan or others are not honoring their commitments. But it remains unclear how that would be policed. And history offers a caution. China, with its state-run economy, never met its modest purchase agreements under Trump's Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal. Holding it to account proved difficult for the subsequent Biden administration. "All of it is untested. The EU, Japan and South Korea are going to have to figure out how to operationalize this," Shaw said. "It's not just government purchases. It's getting the private sector motivated to either make investments or back loans, or to purchase certain commodities." And lastly, the main premise for the tariffs Trump has imposed unilaterally faces legal challenges. His legal team met with stiff questioning during appellate court oral arguments over his novel use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, historically used for sanctioning enemies or freezing their assets, to justify his tariffs. A ruling could come any time and regardless of the outcome seems destined to be settled ultimately by the Supreme Court. Sign in to access your portfolio
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23 minutes ago
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What we know about Trump and Putin's Ukraine ceasefire face-to-face meeting
The US and Russian presidents are set to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine in a face-to-face meeting Donald Trump is set to meet with Vladimir Putin 'in the coming days' to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine, officials in Russia have said. News of a possible face-to-face meeting between the US and Russian presidents was first touted by Trump and the White House on Wednesday. The New York Times reported that Trump told European leaders during a call on Wednesday that he intended to meet with Putin and then follow up with a further meeting that would include Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump told reporters: 'There's a good chance that there will be a meeting very soon.' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also said: 'The Russians expressed their desire to meet with president Trump, and the president is open to meeting with both president Putin and president Zelensky.' On Thursday, the Kremlin confirmed the meeting is planned for the next few days, marking the first summit between leaders of the two countries since 2021. But he did not comment on the possibility of another meeting including Zelensky. According to the Interfax news agency, Moscow's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said: 'At the suggestion of the American side, an agreement was essentially reached to hold a bilateral meeting at the highest level in the coming days, that is, a meeting between president Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. 'We are now beginning concrete preparations together with our American colleagues.' No details have been given as to where the summit would take place but a possible venue could be the United Arab Emirates, where Putin is due to fly to on Thursday for a meeting with its president. News of the meeting comes days before the deadline set by Trump for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or face new sanctions runs out. Trump has been increasingly frustrated with Putin over the lack of progress towards peace and has threatened to impose heavy tariffs on countries that buy Russian exports, including oil.
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
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If Trump's redistricting war comes to Indiana, Indiana Democrats will have few weapons
Amid a White House pressure campaign to redraw congressional district lines, Democrats in Indiana are vowing to fight back. In their most recent fundraising email, Indiana House Democrats evoked their 2011 walkout over right-to-work legislation opposed by labor unions. Texas Democrats are using the same tactic to block the adoption of a new congressional map sought by President Donald Trump to help Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 election. "In 2011, our Hoosier Democratic legislators walked out of the General Assembly to fight for workers' rights. We were willing to put it all on the line to protect our state from extreme government overreach," the email says. "We know the fight our fellow Democrats are going through down south, and we know it may be only a matter of time before Indiana is next." The fundraising pitch, however, omits a key fact: Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the Indiana General Assembly, meaning they have enough members for a quorum even without a single Democrat present. The omission highlights a bleak truth for Indiana Democrats. Unlike their colleagues in Texas, they would be virtually powerless to stop a vote on new congressional maps. "They don't have options," said Tip Kew, a former chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party. "They can't break quorum. All they can do is use rhetoric and protest." Indiana will be in the spotlight when Vice President J.D. Vance flies to Indianapolis on Aug. 7 to meet with Gov. Mike Braun and Republican legislative leaders about the possibility of redrawing the state's congressional maps. Republicans already control seven of Indiana's nine congressional districts, but they believe they could flip at least one of the other seats if they redraw district boundaries. Making such changes mid-decade is highly unusual. Typically, state lawmakers only redraw maps for Congress and the General Assembly to account for population shifts after the decennial census. The process is notoriously political. Trump is pushing red states to make changes now to give Republicans a boost in the mid-term elections, which tend to favor the party outside of the White House. The redistricting process is already underway in Republican-led Texas where new congressional maps would give the GOP in that state five additional U.S. House seats. Texas Democrats fled to Illinois on Aug. 3 to disrupt legislative procedures. Leaders of Democratic-controlled states have threatened to redraw, setting the stage for a redistricting arms race. In Indiana, Republican Gov. Mike Braun has not ruled out the possibility of calling a special session to draw new maps. Indiana House Speaker Todd Huston, R-Fishers, and Indiana Senate majority leader Rodric Bray, R-Martinsville, are expected to meet with Vance as well. The top Democrat in the Indiana House, Rep. Phil GiaQuinta of Fort Wayne, acknowledged his caucus's limitations in a statement to IndyStar. "Unfortunately, with the breakdown of the Indiana House of Representatives as it currently stands, a walkout from our caucus would not hinder Indiana Republicans from meeting quorum and distorting Indiana's congressional maps to silence the voices of the people," he said. Instead, Democrats will focus on advocating for fair maps, and encouraging constituents to call their elected officials and "participate in civil demonstrations to share their thoughts and concerns." "Republicans are trying to rig the game at halftime because they know they're down," he said. "Hoosiers always lose when their elected officials abuse their power in a pathetic attempt to maintain it." Democrats have attributed their weakened state in part to previous Republican-controlled redistricting. Democrats won 40% to 41% percent of the vote last year in Indiana's races for governor and president, but they have less than 27% of seats in the General Assembly and 22% of Indiana's congressional seats. "They can take more power," Tew said, "because they have so much power." The diminished strength of Democrats leaves them with few options. Even a legal challenge seems like a questionable tactic after a 2019 U.S. Supreme Court decision that partisan gerrymandering claims are "beyond the reach of the federal courts," said Indiana Democratic Party Chair Karen Tallian. With no other strategies at their disposal, Democrats are hoping that what they see as a power grab by Trump and his allies at the Statehouse will stoke a massive response from voters, even if the topic of redistricting has failed to garner much passion from Hoosiers in the past. "Public opinion is a big factor here," Tallian said. "If you get enough people mad, you can break a 60% Republican district." Democrats are hoping to rally supporters during Vance's visit with a sit-in at the Statehouse on Aug. 7 beginning at 8 a.m. The two members of Congress likely to be targeted in any redistricting effort — Democratic U.S. Reps. Frank Mrvan and André Carson — are scheduled to speak at 12:30 p.m. Contact IndyStar reporter Tony Cook at 317-444-6081 or Follow him on X: @IndyStarTony. This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: In Trump's redistricting war, Indiana Democrats will have few weapons
