Who's Going to Halt Hollywood's Production Exodus — and How?

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07-05-2025

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President Donald Trump's sudden announcement on Sunday that he intends to impose a '100 percent tariff' on movies produced abroad jolted advocates who have been working for months to return more film and television production to California.
Between the Stay in LA coalition, the Hollywood guilds, the state legislature and Gov. Gavin Newsom, production insiders thought they knew the players and what their positions were. But, as the White House and Trump ambassador Jon Voight took a stab at offering up a plan, studio chiefs are mostly staying silent (publicly) while union leaders' considered statements have signaled guilds are keeping their options open.
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There's general skepticism that the tariff will actually be implemented and raised eyebrows about Trump's motives, as many of these industry types express caution and say they're waiting for details on the policy. A group of film studio executives are expected to speak with Motion Pictures Association chair-CEO Charles Rivkin on May 9 to discuss the White House idea. But some, who point out how California has bled production work in recent years, say that any fresh ideas or attention drawn to the issue could be helpful.
'We have been in this race with film and television tax credits for many decades at this point, and it just doesn't seem to be enough,' Teamsters motion picture division director Lindsay Dougherty tells The Hollywood Reporter. The union leader put out a celebratory statement with the Teamsters' general president about the tariff idea on Monday. 'We're all just trying to work together to figure out what to solve is here, because we have been dealing with this issue since the 1990s in California, and it's a losing battle at this point.'
Before Trump took to his Truth Social platform on Sunday, organizations had spent months on a multi-pronged effort to lure film and TV production back to Hollywood. A coalition has been lobbying Sacramento in order to pass Gov. Gavin Newsom's proposed film and television tax incentives increase as well as associated bills, while at a federal level, Sen. Adam Schiff has been working with industry stakeholders to bring forward a potential federal film incentive.
In March, the California Film Commission revealed a record 51 films will receive tax credits to shoot in the state, estimating that the projects will pay about $347 million in wages and generate $578 million in economic activity. Local politicians in Los Angeles recognized that something needed to be done in the short term as well, and the L.A. City Council unanimously passed a measure on April 29 to research potential discounts or fee waivers for public property shoots, streamlined film permitting structures and more.
For weeks, unions and studios were meeting with Heat and Midnight Cowboy actor Jon Voight, one of Trump's reps to the business assigned to make Hollywood 'BIGGER, BETTER, AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE,' as the president posted on Truth Social in January. Through his conversations, Voight and his team put together a wide-ranging package of proposals calling for federal tax incentives, tax code changes, co-production treaties, tariffs in certain circumstances and other ideas.
The stakes are stark. Shoots for scripted television shows in Los Angeles had declined 30 percent compared to the same quarter last year, while feature movies saw a 29 percent drop versus the first quarter of 2024, per permitting office FilmLA.
At an April 14 event in Burbank organized to advocate for postproduction and music incentives, Noelle Stehman, a member of the Stay in LA campaign, added: 'This is not hyperbole to say that if we don't act, the California film and TV industry will become the next Detroit auto.' Those references to Detroit's automotive industry struck a national chord and reverberated through headlines over the month ahead of the White House's missive.
Trump's post on Sunday made mention only of a '100% tariff,' prompting concerns about potential retaliation from nations that would be negatively affected by any kind of financial penalty. In a statement, IATSE international president Matthew Loeb expressed fear for the impacts that this policy could have on the union's tens of thousands of Canadian members. 'We continue to stand firm in our conviction that any eventual trade policy must do no harm to our Canadian members — nor the industry overall.' The union seeks 'reciprocal trade practices,' he added.
Director Adam Bhala Lough (Telemarketers), who has been vocal about his wish to bring more production to California, writes in an email that 'slapping a blanket tariff on movies produced outside the United States would raise costs for studios and independents alike, invite retaliation that could hurt our overseas box office, and ultimately make it harder for California filmmakers to get projects made.' He instead advocates for direct investment in the industry.
California represents the largest film and TV hub in the U.S., with an estimated $6.34 billion in trailing 12-month spending, as compared to New York ($4.07 billion), Georgia ($2.23 billion), New Mexico ($805 million), Illinois ($725 million) and New Jersey ($536 million), per a new report from industry tracker ProdPro.
A federal tax incentive like the one Schiff is working on remains the favored approach for many advocates in the space. Having a federal tax incentive would be 'much more impactful' than tariffs would be for job creation, says unscripted producer Patrick Caligiuri, whose videos about the state of the entertainment business have become cathartic must-watches for struggling industry workers. 'It's the old adage, you win more with sugar than you do with vinegar.'
Alexandra Pechman, one of the co-founders of the grassroots group Stay in LA, says the grassroots group remains focused on passing Newsom's budget proposal and is excited about the governor's offer to Trump on Monday to collaborate on a $7.5 billion federal tax credit. 'We believe that better incentives are the ways to bring jobs back,' she says.
But many industry unions, weary of telling their members bad news for years about the state of the business, signaled receptivity to the notion after Trump fired off his tariff tweet on Sunday. Though he was concerned about his Canadian members, Loeb said Trump was right to note that Hollywood faces an 'urgent threat,' while SAG-AFTRA's national executive director Duncan Crabtree-Ireland said the union backed efforts to increase U.S. film and television production.
Most effusive were the Teamsters, who said called it a 'strong step' toward 'reining in the studios' un-American addiction to outsourcing our members' work.'
But when reached for their thoughts, filmmakers and rank-and-file workers diverged in their views on the idea. One indie filmmaker who has made multiple projects overseas was somewhat amenable to the idea tariffs, noting he is growing frustrated with the inability to film at home in Los Angeles. 'At least he's trying something,' he says of Trump, though he acknowledges it's not a thought-through idea.
One film illustrator was also curious about the idea of tariffs generally, saying they made sense to him. 'If [companies] are shooting in another country, why do they then get to bring their product back here and not pay an extra duty on it while they're displacing American workers?' he says. But he doesn't trust Trump to be the one to carry that through. 'We just went through two years of bullshit and now we're going to sit there and play footsies with this guy? That's insane,' he says.
CREW, a caucus of rank-and-file workers within IATSE, says in a joint statement with the Production Assistants United movement they have 'no expectation' that the Trump administration would figure out a film tariff policy or keep it in place long enough to benefit the industry. The coalition did say, however, that it supports federal policies like Newsom's tax credit idea, which would be 'a good short term expedient to combat the historic job loss we're currently facing.'
And one director behind a mid-budget action feature is carrying on with a scheduled trip this week scout overseas, surmising the tariffs will either not take effect, or will be done away with by the time his movie arrives in theaters.
Aaron Couch contributed to this story.
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