Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Preview: WCF Series Odds, Picks, Best Bets

Newsweek

20-05-2025

Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves enter the Western Conference Finals as heavy underdogs vs. the Thunder. Minnesota vs. OKC tips off on Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves enter the Western Conference Finals as heavy underdogs vs. the Thunder. Minnesota vs. OKC tips off on Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
The Western Conference Finals get underway on Tuesday night, with Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves taking on MVP favorite Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and the Thunder.
The Wolves controlled both their first-round series against the Lakers and their second-round matchup with the Warriors, notching 4-1 gentleman's sweeps of both LA and Golden State.
The Thunder, on the other hand, swept the Grizzlies in the first round, but needed seven games to vanquish Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder WCF Series Odds
On paper, this Western Conference Finals matchup is a fascinating one that promises to be competitive.
But as you can see below, DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365 all list the Wolves at as long as +300 to win this series.
Note: Odds up to date as of Monday, May 19.
DK FD bet365 Wolves +265 +300 +280 Thunder -330 -375 -360
Wolves-Thunder Spread, Total Games Odds
While the most popular market for bettors tackling a series that hasn't started yet is the series winner market, there are plenty of other ways to bet on how a series will play out, including Series Spread, Total Games and more.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Series Spread Odds
In MIN-OKC, it's possible to bet on either team to win the series by 1.5 or 2.5 games. The winner would have to get it done in six games (4-2) to cover at -1.5, and it would need to win 4-1 (or 4-0) to cover at -2.5.
The odds below come from DraftKings:
OKC -1.5 (-140); MIN +1.5 (+120)
OKC -2.5 (+135); MIN +2.5 (-160)
MIN -1.5 (+425); OKC +1.5 (-550)
MIN -2.5 (+1000); OKC +2.5 (-1800)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Total Games Odds
The line on how many games this series will go is set at 5.5 at most sportsbooks, including DK, FD and bet365:
DraftKings: Over 5.5 (-135); Under 5.5 (+115)
FanDuel: Over 5.5 (-140); Under 5.5 (+114)
bet365: Over 5.5 (-135); Under 5.5 (-105)
Additional series markets include Game/Series Double, Exact Games and Exact Outcome. On the player props front, you can wager on which player will lead a series in points, made threes, rebounds, assists and more.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Analysis
We're going to focus on how and why the Wolves could pull off the upset in this section, because the case for the Thunder is obvious -- and we don't blame you if you're bullish on the team that is -300 or shorter to win this series.
Why the Timberwolves Could Take Down the Thunder
There are a lot of reasons to like the Wolves to at least push the Thunder. The first two are Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. Minnesota's outstanding 3-point shooting as a team and its solid bench are two other key strengths.
Can Edwards, Randle Stay Hot?
The case for the Wolves starts with superstar Anthony Edwards. But keep in mind that Minnesota went 2-1 vs. the Warriors in games where he was held relatively in check (23 points or fewer). Edwards also shot below 40 percent twice vs. the Lakers, and the Wolves won both those games.
In Julius Randle, the Wolves also have an excellent second scoring option after Edwards.
He averaged an impressive 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game vs. the Lakers, then posted 25.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg and 7.4 apg vs. the Warriors. If he remains that productive against the Thunder, the Wolves will have a real chance to push this series to seven games, if not win it.
How Randle performs in this series will be fascinating. He missed three of his team's four regular-season matchups vs. the Thunder. The only time he faced OKC this year, he finished with just 11 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists.
Edwards played in all four MIN-OKC games in the regular season and averaged 22.25 points on just 24-for-66 FG shooting (36 percent).
Timberwolves' Deep Bench Key to Series
OKC's depth was one of the biggest reasons it was able to outlast Denver in the second round. No fewer than five reserves -- Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams -- all played a significant part in that series.
While the Thunder are deeper than the Wolves, it's an understatement to say that the Timberwolves -- whose eight-man rotation heavily features Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker -- have a better bench than Denver.
Can Minnesota Win The 3-Point And/Or Turnover Battles?
The last two variables worth discussing with Minnesota -- both of which are pivotal for any team facing the Thunder -- are 3-point shooting and turnovers.
The Wolves were one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA in the regular season. For the most part, they've continued to shoot the ball well from outside in the postseason.
But in three of their 10 playoff games (Games 2 and 5 vs. the Lakers and Game 1 vs. the Warriors), they shot 20 percent or worse from 3-point land.
Against a Thunder team that successfully forced the Nuggets' complementary pieces to beat them from outside, it will be crucial that DiVincenzo, Reid, Randle and NAW make OKC pay for leaving them open.
The biggest concern for Minnesota is the turnover battle. Edwards alone averaged 3.4 turnovers vs. the Warriors, and the Wolves had 21 turnovers apiece in each of Games 3, 4 and 5 of that series.
Against the Thunder -- who were second in the league in defensive turnover rate in the regular season (14.9) and have bumped that up to 17.8 in the playoffs -- Minnesota could be in huge trouble if it's unable to avoid TOs.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Series Best Bets
As we've given away at this point, the Timberwolves have a real chance to advance to the Finals. And at minimum, Minnesota could absolutely make this a seven-game series.
It's hard to overstate what an advantage the Wolves should have in Games 1 and 2 given that they're coming off back-to-back 4-1 series. The Thunder, on the other hand, were pushed to the limit by the Nuggets in a battle that just ended on Sunday.
Also consider the regular-season results. These teams split four meetings despite Randle, DiVincenzo and Rudy Gobert each missing three of those four games.
As for our favorite Timberwolves vs. Thunder series leader bet, SGA's status as the favorite to score the most points in this series makes plenty of sense.
That being said, he'll face a tough group of perimeter defenders for Minnesota, and Edwards is such a good scorer that he'd be tempting at longer than 2-to-1 odds, regardless of the opponent or circumstances.
Total Games -- Over 5.5 (-135 at DraftKings) -- 1 unit
Series Spread -- MIN +1.5 (+132 at FanDuel) -- 0.75 units
Series Leader (Points) Anthony Edwards (+230 at bet365) -- 0.5 units
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.