Hurricane Erin tracker: See projected path of 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 season, forecast to strengthen to Category 3 over the weekend
Erin has now become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, officially forming mid-Friday morning. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect for parts of the northern Leeward Islands, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is steadily strengthening as it moves westward. The NHC said there is still uncertainty about what impact it could have on states like Florida on the U.S. East Coast, as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda.
But forecasters remain confident that Erin "will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend."
Where is Hurricane Erin, and what is its path?
As of 2 p.m. ET Friday:
Erin was located 415 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.
It is moving west-northwest at 17 mph.
The storm is expected to continue moving west-northwest into the weekend. "The center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend," the NHC said.
Starting tonight into Sunday, the outer bands of Erin are expected to bring areas of heavy rainfall across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals could range from 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in isolated areas, which could lead to flash or urban flooding and cause mudslides and landslides, the hurricane center said Friday.
Direct impacts along the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas appear to be "gradually decreasing," according to the NHC.
What are the chances it will intensify?
"Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend," forecasters said.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, according to the NHC.
Watches and warnings in place
As of 2 p.m. ET Friday, these are the following advisories in place, according to the NHC:
Tropical storm watches are in effect for:
Anguilla and Barbuda
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
Saba and St. Eustatius
Sint Maarten
Forecasters added that, "Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday." A 'tropical storm watch' means tropical storm conditions are possible in the areas within the next 48 hours.
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13-18 (estimated at 13-19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's hurricane season, and as of Friday, Aug. 15, there have been six so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.
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Hurricane Erin is one of the fastest rapidly intensifying storms in Atlantic history
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The outer bands of the storm will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the Hurricane Center said. Considerable flash flooding, landslides and mudslides, are possible, it added. The storm is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the US East Coast, and Atlantic Canada next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erin sustained winds near 150 mph as of Saturday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend, as Erin brings rain and strong wind gusts to the Caribbean islands south of it. Erin is expected to persist until Monday, when it will start to slowly weaken. Erin's powerful wind field is forecast to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast. The storm is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a gradual turn toward the north. It's unlikely it will make a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands, though tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas cautioning potential threats. Erin is forecast to track north over the western Atlantic next week, away from the United States and Bermuda, but that could change if the storm turns more or less sharply than currently forecast. Even if the forecast remains consistent, Erin could cause issues for both places in the form of rough surf and dangerous rip currents. n anticipation of the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized. 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The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 last year. There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September. August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year. This story has been updated with additional information.
