Broadcom's (AVGO) Trillion-Dollar Comeback Reinforces Bullish Outlook

Business Insider

4 hours ago

Broadcom (AVGO) has rejoined the elite group of trillion-dollar market cap companies, rebounding over 70% since April's peak in trade-related bearish sentiment. Much of this volatility stemmed from Broadcom's substantial exposure to China, as a large share of its semiconductor revenue—still more than half of total sales—remains vulnerable to tariffs, unlike its more insulated software segment, including VMware.
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Broadcom's stock had already been under pressure as excitement around DeepSeek—a Chinese startup promoting a cost-effective, open-source AI model—led investors to reassess the broader AI landscape, especially for U.S.-based players. However, when news broke that semiconductors would be excluded from the latest round of tariffs, sentiment around Broadcom quickly improved.
That momentum was further reinforced by Broadcom's announcement of a $10 billion share buyback program —roughly 1% of its market cap—which signaled strong confidence from management. Additionally, the company reported solid growth in AI and software revenue during its April quarter and provided optimistic forward guidance.
Looking through Broadcom's recent updates suggests that it's delivering efficient value creation for shareholders, which means that even with elevated valuations, there is a compelling case to remain bullish on AVGO and maintain a Buy rating.
Strong Margins and Accelerating Revenue Tell the Story
Broadcom's latest quarterly results also highlighted a clear split between business segments: semiconductor revenue unrelated to AI has stayed stable at around $4 billion. Meanwhile, the AI segment is growing fast and has become the company's main growth driver. Infrastructure software revenue hit $6.66 billion in the quarter, up 25% year-over-year and above the company's own expectations, as TipRanks' data shows.
For the next quarter, total revenue is projected to be $15.9 billion—a 21% increase compared to last year, indicating an acceleration from previous quarters.
Additionally, Broadcom expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 66% next quarter (down slightly from 67% in the most recent one, primarily due to a shift in product mix). Still, it highlights the company's lean, highly profitable business model. By focusing solely on chip design and outsourcing manufacturing, Broadcom keeps costs low and maintains margins comparable to those of Nvidia (NVDA).
And since Broadcom tends to be conservative with its guidance—but usually beats expectations while maintaining strong margin discipline—that remains a key part of the bullish case going forward. As AVGO's earnings history shows, the company has beaten expectations for 16 consecutive quarters.
Broadcom Makes Capital Count
As an asset-light business, Broadcom has a model that stands in contrast to companies like Intel (INTC) and Micron (MU), which combine design and manufacturing and require heavy capital investment. That difference has clearly appealed to investors and helped support Broadcom's strong financial performance, particularly in its consistent return of value to shareholders.
What's great is that Broadcom has historically delivered a high return on invested capital (ROIC), typically around 20%. That's a sign of a lasting structural advantage that most competitors struggle to replicate.
If we examine the numbers from the last twelve months and apply the basic ROIC formula—NOPAT divided by invested capital—excluding goodwill and intangibles (which is reasonable given Broadcom's acquisition-heavy balance sheet), the ROIC today comes in around 14%. To judge whether that's attractive, the right move is to compare it to the company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
Based on current interest rates, beta, and risk premium, Broadcom's WACC falls somewhere between 8% and 10%, so let's assume ~9% as a reference. The spread between a 14% ROIC and a 9% WACC indicates that Broadcom is generating real economic profit, earning well above its cost of capital.
Moreover, latest figures indicate a growing revenue base ($15 billion total) with a stable profit margin ($10.2 billion in gross profit).
In my view, this ability to consistently generate high returns on capital is a key part of the investment thesis. It reinforces the strength of Broadcom's moat and highlights the discipline in how it allocates available capital.
Premium Multiples with Solid Ground to Stand On
Of course, there is little point in a business being highly profitable and consistent if its valuation is overly inflated. In Broadcom's case, the stock currently trades at 37.8x forward earnings and a PEG ratio of 1.6x, based on a solid long-term EPS growth rate of 23% CAGR. So, while it's definitely not cheap in absolute terms, it doesn't look unreasonable either, especially when factoring in future growth.
If we examine AVGO's earnings yield through the lens of operating profit over enterprise value—which can be especially useful for value-oriented or cash-flow-focused investors—it ranges at just 1.8%, well below its estimated weighted average cost of capital (WACC). In other words, the market is clearly pricing Broadcom at a premium. That premium, in my view, reflects a mix of high AI growth expectations, robust operating margins, and the advantages of a capital-light, fabless business model.
Currently, AVGO has a forward P/E ratio of 37.78 while the sector average remains at 22.44, indicating AVGO is priced higher than its peers in the sector, and higher than its own 5-year average of 21.6. AVGO is set to announce its latest figures in August this year.
That said, Broadcom is a high-quality business, and I wouldn't expect low multiples to be the reason to turn bullish. In fact, it's often during uptrends—when multiples are expanding—that strong companies like this tend to outperform. It's not necessarily after sharp corrections (like the 40% pullback AVGO saw between January and April this year) that the best entries happen.
The stock currently trades at ~$250, well above its 200-day moving average of $197.2. And although it might sound counterintuitive, I wouldn't wait for a correction just to get a 'cheaper' entry. For a stock of this quality, paying a premium can be justified, especially if it's supported by higher risk-adjusted returns and lower volatility over time.
Is Broadcom a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Optimism surrounding AVGO stock is evident among Wall Street analysts. Out of 29 covering the stock, 27 have bullish ratings, with only two staying neutral. Although the valuation appears stretched, suggesting limited upside, AVGO's average stock price target of $286.60 implies a 15% upside over the next twelve months.
Broadcom's Quality Cuts Through Valuation Noise
Currently, Broadcom appears increasingly well-positioned to scale its operations and capitalize on the substantial demand for AI. Add to that its strong track record of creating shareholder value, and it's no surprise that this is reflected in the trade at a well-deserved premium valuation.
While some might find the current multiples a bit steep, I would caution against waiting for a correction to enter the market. High-quality stocks like Broadcom often deliver better risk-adjusted returns when trading near their peak than when they're 'on sale.' With that in mind, I believe a bullish stance on AVGO makes the most sense at this time.