Shein Revenue Neared $10 Billion in First Quarter Before Tariffs
The performance helped lift Shein's profit margin to about 5%, the people said, asking not to be identified because the figures were disclosed confidentially.
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'The Trade War Has Lost All Credibility:' Markets Shrug Off Trump's Tariff Blitz On Multiple Countries
As President Donald Trump unveiled a blitz of new tariffs across different countries on Thursday, the markets remained largely unfazed by the move. What Happened: On Thursday, in a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the market's muted response to Trump's sweeping new moves on the trade and tariff front. The post notes that Trump 'randomly' increased tariffs on Canada, the largest trading partner of the United States, from 25% to 35%. Followed by a string of new tariffs on others, such as 'Vietnam, Switzerland, South Africa, Taiwan, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Venezuela.' Trending: 7,000+ investors have joined Timeplast's mission to eliminate microplastics—now it's your turn to Yet, the market response was underwhelming, with S&P 500 futures 'down a mere 10 points,' which the post attributes almost entirely to 'Amazon's weak earnings results.' It says that in April, when the 'Liberation Day' tariffs were first announced, such a move would have sent the S&P 500 lower by 3% or more. The post says 'the trade war has lost all credibility' in the market, and that it has lost the 'shock effect' that it had a couple of months ago. Why It Matters: This could be seen as a fallout of the 'TACO Trade' meme, or 'Trump Always Chickens Out,' where investors buy equities right after Trump makes a tariff threat, knowing fully well that he will eventually back out. Economist Peter Schiff recently called this 'a classic paradox,' since markets not reacting to Trump's tariffs, because they expect him to 'chicken out,' will eventually lead him to follow through on his threats. 'Investors assume Trump will cancel the August 1 tariffs before they kick in, so stocks aren't selling off,' he says, but since there isn't a dramatic market response to this, 'Trump won't chicken out again.' Read Next: $100k+ in investable assets? Match with a fiduciary advisor for free to learn how you can maximize your retirement and save on taxes – no cost, no obligation. Bezos' Favorite Real Estate Platform Launches A Way To Ride The Ongoing Private Credit Boom Photo courtesy: Shutterstock UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? This article 'The Trade War Has Lost All Credibility:' Markets Shrug Off Trump's Tariff Blitz On Multiple Countries originally appeared on
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15 minutes ago
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'A gamechanger': Economists react to weak July jobs report as rate cut bets surge
Wall Street strategists are sharply recalibrating their economic outlooks after Friday's July jobs report showed weaker-than-expected hiring and staggering downward revisions to prior months' data, suggesting the labor market may be losing steam at a quicker pace than previously thought. The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, far below the 104,000 expected by economists. But the bigger surprise came from revisions to the May and June figures, which collectively erased 258,000 jobs. This marked the largest two-month downward revision since May 2020. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, called the July jobs report "a dud" in a client note titled "July and the No Good, Very Bad Jobs Report." "The 'solid' state of the labor market described by the FOMC earlier this week looks more questionable after the July employment report," she said, citing broad-based hiring weakness in cyclically sensitive sectors like manufacturing, retail, and professional services. Despite persistent strength in healthcare hiring, she added, "the pace [of job growth] has lurched lower to just 35K" over the past three months when factoring in revisions. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, bluntly told Yahoo Finance that the July numbers were simply "not good. There's no way to sugarcoat that. The two-month revision is just staggering. It basically wipes out two months of what we thought were healthy job gains." Citi economist Veronica Clark agreed, telling Yahoo Finance, "It's not so much this July number, but the massive downward revisions to the June number that we had last month. ... This definitely does look like a labor market that is weakening." Meanwhile, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called the report a "gamechanger" in a post on X, echoing others in saying "the labor market now looks a lot weaker than expected." The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, in line with expectations and still near historic lows. But as Clark pointed out, "that happened despite the labor force participation rate falling more," a shift some economists have linked to President Trump's immigration crackdown. Ahead of the report, there were growing concerns that increased deportations were reducing labor supply and keeping the jobless rate artificially low. September rate cut odds surge The revised data has added urgency to calls for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with market pricing shifting notably in the aftermath. "We still anticipate that the Fed starts to cut in September with consecutive cuts thereafter leading to about 100 basis points of cuts in total," said Leslie Falcone, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management. Falcone noted that while the Fed had already turned more cautious, the scale of the revisions surprised even the most dovish forecasters. "Some of these revisions are much more than what people expected. ... I do think that this is a bit on the weaker side. And it does put cuts back on the table." Traders seem to agree. Following the report, the probability of a September rate cut surged to about 80%, up from just 38% the day prior, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Earlier this week, Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller broke from the majority of FOMC officials, dissenting against the decision to hold interest rates steady after warning that the labor market was weaker than initial data had indicated. That warning appeared prescient on Friday as markets tumbled following the report. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell over 2% by midmorning, the Dow (DOW) shed nearly 600 points, and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 1.6%. Meanwhile, bond prices surged on increased rate cut bets, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) down 11 basis points to around 4.2%. Adding to labor market concerns, escalating trade tensions were also top of mind for investors as Trump hiked tariff rates on several US trading partners, including a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland. "The market had sort of put tariffs in the rearview mirror and assumed that the labor market was okay," Sosnick said. "Well, both of those assumptions have been overturned quite dramatically this morning." The strategist warned markets appear to be entering a "reckoning period," explaining, "We're not seeing a lot of reflexive dip buying. ... That, to me, tells me that the psychology, at least as of this particular moment, is a bit more tenuous than it was." Correction: A previous version of this article misspelled Steve Sosnick's name. We regret the error. Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
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Nat-Gas Prices Recover on Forecasts for Hotter US Weather
September Nymex natural gas (NGU25) on Thursday closed up +0.061 (+2.00%). Sep nat-gas prices on Thursday recovered from a 3.25-month low and settled higher after forecasts for warmer US weather sparked short-covering in nat-gas futures. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted warmer for the western half of the US for August 5-9, with above-average temperatures seen expanding across the Southwest and Texas, which will boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power air-conditioning usage. More News from Barchart Crude Oil and the US Dollar Index Are Heading Higher, and Commodity Traders Are Taking Note Nat-Gas Prices Retreat on a Mixed Weather Forecast Crude Prices Supported by President Trump's Threats to Sanction Russian Energy Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Nat-gas prices initially tumbled to a 3.25-month low Thursday after weekly nat-gas supplies rose more than expected. The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories rose +48 bcf in the week ended July 25, higher than expectations of +41 bcf and well-above the five-year average for this time of year at +24 bcf. In addition, higher US nat-gas production is weighing on prices as recent US nat-gas output is up year-over-year. Moreover, expectations for even higher US nat-gas production are also weighing on nat-gas prices after last Friday's weekly report from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 25 rose by +5 to a nearly 2-year high of 122 rigs. Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday was 107.8 bcf/day (+2.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 80.5 bcf/day (-7.0% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 14.9 bcf/day (-2.4% w/w), according to BNEF. An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended July 26 rose +8.1% y/y to 98,772 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending July 26 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,258,448 GWh. Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 25 rose +48 bcf, above the consensus of +41 bcf and the 5-year average of +24 bcf for the week. As of July 25, nat-gas inventories were down -3.9% y/y, but were +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of July 29, gas storage in Europe was 68% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 76% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 25 rose by +5 to a nearly 2-year high of 122 rigs. In the past ten months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
