Trump needs to act now. Putin won't stop
The Kremlin rushed to calm the waters and claimed that Russia was still interested in peace negotiations with Ukraine. Nonetheless, Putin's aide Yury Ushakov still emphasised the contrast between Trump's push for a swift ceasefire in Ukraine and the Kremlin's desire to eliminate the root causes of the Ukraine War.
Russia's latest actions suggest that Trump's frustrations are warranted. During the early hours of Friday morning, Russian forces pummelled Ukraine with 550 Shahed drones and ballistic missiles. This attack was Russia's largest aerial assault of the war, and broke the record set earlier this week of 537 drones and missiles.
Even though Russia has not taken much-feared apocalyptic steps like using tactical nuclear weapons or triggering a meltdown in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, it is steadily escalating its war against Ukrainian civilians.
There are also alarming indicators that Russia's aggression is likely to worsen in the weeks and months ahead. Ukrainian electronic warfare specialist Sergey Beskrestnov warned that Russia has established component supply chains and personnel networks to rapidly increase production of Shahed drones. Beskrestnov warned that these measures could soon lead to Russia launching aerial attacks with 800 drones on Ukrainian cities.
Russia has combined these aerial assaults with the more intense use of prohibited military technologies and the steady expansion of Ukraine's frontlines. Dutch and German intelligence assessments reveal that Russia is expanding its use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian soldiers. What is especially concerning is the use of drones with choking agents to drive Ukrainian soldiers out of trenches and shoot them.
While Russia remains primarily focused on securing offensive gains in Donetsk, it is trying to stretch Ukraine's military capabilities wherever possible. Earlier this week, the Kremlin claimed that it established full control over the Donbas region of Luhansk. It has also reportedly amassed 50,000 troops to attack the northeastern Ukrainian region of Sumy and claimed control over its first village in the east-central Ukrainian industrial heartland of Dnipropetrovsk.
Russia's multi-pronged offensive reflects the resilience of its war economy and support from its external backers. Even though Russian minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov warned of an imminent recession at last month's St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Russia can still afford its $144 billion military budget. Salary cuts have not led to insubordination within the ranks of Russia's weapons manufacturers or to massive declines in military enlistment.
North Korea's impending deployment of tens of thousands of new forces to Ukraine and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi's warnings about the consequences of a Russian defeat suggest that Putin's allies are staying put. The same cannot be said about Ukraine's most important backer: the United States.
Due to growing concerns about munitions shortages in the US army, under secretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby just halted some key precision missile and air defence shipments to Ukraine. Colby's decision stunned many senior US officials and reportedly occurred without the blessing of national security advisor and secretary of state Marco Rubio.
In a further blow to Kyiv, America is wavering on Germany's plan to purchase two Patriot systems and hundreds of missiles from the US for Ukraine. German journalist Julian Ropcke warned that American-German negotiations on Patriot deliveries might come to a complete halt.
This means that Kyiv's rapidly dwindling missile stocks might not be replenished and Russian attacks on Ukraine's decision-making centres could inflict lethal harm. It also poses an existential threat to the port of Odesa and its critical economic infrastructure for Black Sea grain exports.
Trump's anger with Putin's pursuit of war at all costs is welcome news for Ukrainians, but they need to be backed by actions. The Americans must now channel those frustrations into providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend its cities and repel Russia's offensive advances.
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