Oil jumps nearly 9% after Israel's strikes on Iran

Zawya

2 days ago

Oil prices jumped nearly 9% on Friday to near multi-month highs after Israel launched strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about a disruption in Middle East oil supplies.
Brent crude futures were up $6.19, or around 8.9%, to $75.55 a barrel at 1019 GMT, after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $6.22, or 9.1%, at $74.26 after hitting $77.62, its highest level since January 21.
Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices.
Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response.
U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iran to
make a deal
over its nuclear programme, to put an end to the "next already planned attacks."
The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate.
The primary concern was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said.
There also was no impact to oil flow in the region so far, he added.
About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel.
Analysts at consultancy Sparta Commodities said that any significant crude supply disruptions would lead to sour crude grades being marginally priced out of refineries in favour of light sweets.
Under a worst case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on Thursday that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil producing countries in the region could lead to oil prices surging to $120-130 a barrel, nearly double their current base case forecast.
"The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week - our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance," said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad.
"Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC+ spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force," he added.
In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc.
An increase in oil prices would also dampen the outlook for the German economy, the economic institute DIW Berlin said on Friday. It is the only G7 nation that has recorded no economic growth for two consecutive years.
"The increased uncertainty speaks in favour of a higher risk premium on the oil price, which is why it is unlikely to fall below $70 on a sustained basis for the time being ... Fundamental data is taking a back seat in the current situation," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note.
(Reporting by Seher Dareen and Florence Tan; Editing by Stephen Coates, Rachna Uppal and Kim Coghill)