Optimism grows as Niger holds convention on transition plans
Niger is set to hold a national convention to map out its long-awaited political transition following the July 2023 coup that deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. Junta leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, says the dialogue will be inclusive, set governance priorities and determine the transition timeline.
Niger's military announced on state television last Saturday that the national convention will take place from February 15-19.
Authorities said the meeting is expected to produce a preliminary draft of the transition charter.
Junta leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani had initially committed to a three-year transition after seizing power from President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023. But months of silence on the issue fueled uncertainty among Nigeriens and international observers.
Ibrahim Faruk, program coordinator for the African division at Yiaga Africa, said the convention is a step in the right direction.
"This signals the beginning of the timeline for a transition to a democratically elected government in the Republic of Niger," said Faruk. "I think why this is important is that democratic stability in the West African subregion has a way of creating a ripple effect. We saw how once there were coups and attempted coups in some of these countries, it caused a ripple effect. But beyond just a return to [a] democratic government, it must also provide the promise of development that comes with democracy as well."
Ahead of the convention, authorities held consultations across Niger's eight regions and formed a national commission to oversee the dialogue.
At the end of the meeting, the commission is expected to submit a final report to Tchiani within three weeks.
The July 2023 coup triggered widespread condemnation, including threats of military intervention from the regional Economic Community of West African States, known as ECOWAS.
Niger's political crisis reflects a broader trend in the Sahel, where military takeovers have become more frequent amid escalating jihadist threats and growing resentment toward civilian governments.
Faruk believes Niger could set a positive example.
"Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, who have witnessed unconstitutional change of government — I think one common thread that has been running through these three countries is that there hasn't been adherence to previously agreed transition timelines." said Faruk. "[So,] I hope that with this step in the Republic of Niger, it will signal to their brothers in Mali and Burkina Faso that indeed there's an importance to return back to democratically elected government."
Mali and Burkina Faso, both under military rule, have extended their transition timelines, despite initially pledging a quicker return to democracy.
Mali's military attributes the delay to a second coup in 2021, just months after overthrowing President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita.
Burkina Faso's junta postponed elections, citing security concerns.
Political analyst Ahmed Buhari said a transition plan is a good step, but "it's very important for us Africans to know that we cannot copy and paste an entire system and expect it to work with different cultural views, values and norms," he said. "And that is why I think that we're struggling as a continent to find stability, economic growth, security, and most importantly, identity for our people. Different democracies will work for different people around the world. We must create a democratic environment that is suitable for our current realities and challenges."
Critics warn that prolonged military rule remains a strong possibility in the Sahel.
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