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Daily Maverick
2 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Trust deficit threatens Guinea's peaceful return to civilian rule
Despite some progress, consensus on the electoral process and the expansion of democratic freedoms remains crucial. Since the military coup that ousted president Alpha Condé in 2021, the handling of Guinea's transition back to civilian rule has been criticised. In particular, the Forces vives de Guinée (FVG) group of political parties and civil society organisations has pointed to slow progress in keeping to the transition timetable. Although positive steps were recently taken – notably the announcement of a constitutional referendum date – these haven't been enough to build trust between political actors and the transitional government. According to the 10-point timetable agreed to by General Mamadi Doumbouya's junta and the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the transition was to end in December 2024 with elections. That deadline was extended to 2025. On 1 April, the transitional government announced a constitutional referendum scheduled for 21 September – an important milestone and a prerequisite for holding presidential, legislative and local elections. Authorities also clarified progress achieved, especially regarding three of the timetable's 10 points: the administrative civil status census (Recensement Administratif à Vocation d'État Civil, or Ravec), drawing up a voters roll and drafting a new constitution. When the transition timetable was adopted, many questioned the appropriateness of compiling the voters roll from the computerised Ravec-generated civil register, and called for the register to be revised. However, to save time, the transitional authorities decided to maintain Ravec and conduct a parallel electoral census by 20 June. The new draft constitution – based on several written and oral contributions – was presented in July 2024 and disseminated among citizens. The draft was adopted by the transitional parliament on 9 April and forwarded to Doumbouya. Given Guinea's troubled political and institutional history, this inclusive process was a vital step in guaranteeing the country's post-transition stability. Prime Minister Bah Oury has raised the possibility of holding the presidential and legislative elections in tandem following the constitutional referendum. This echoes FVG members' call for the timetable to be revised to allow these elections to be held simultaneously, while leaving it to the next civilian leadership to organise the local elections. This option, which reverses the initial election sequence – from local to presidential – seems pragmatic, particularly considering the shortages of resources needed to meet transition timetable deadlines. These decisions provide much-needed clarity on the steps needed to end the transition. But the crisis of confidence between political actors and transitional authorities could still obstruct efforts to peacefully achieve a constitutional order. The crisis is fuelled by a lack of consensus on the electoral process, the closing of political and civic space and disagreement around Doumbouya's possible candidacy for the next presidential election. While the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization (MATD) has announced it will organise all the elections scheduled on the timetable, the main political parties want an independent and impartial electoral commission to have this responsibility. The authorities plan to set up an Independent Technical Body for Electoral Management, comprising political party and civil society representatives. But this body will only monitor and supervise the electoral process, while the MATD organises the polls. How the Independent Technical Body for Electoral Management functions will be decisive, particularly at a time when civic life is being constrained. These constraints include a ban on protests since May 2022, the disappearance of civil society organisation leaders and a journalist, and state restrictions on the media. Added to this – against a backdrop of intra-party quarrels – is the provisional suspension of the main opposition parties (Union of Republican Forces and Rally of the Guinean People) following a MATD evaluation of political parties. The political class fears this will serve the transitional authorities by consolidating their position ahead of elections. Already, shows of support for the ruling National Committee of Reconciliation and Development (CNRD) and its president, Doumbouya, are multiplying. Members of the CNRD and government have publicly affirmed their backing for his candidacy in the next presidential election. Yet Doumbouya has repeatedly promised that neither he nor any member of the transitional government or parliament would stand in an election to end the transition. This aligns with Guinea's transitional charter and the African Union's (AU) normative framework – to which the transitional authorities have reaffirmed their commitment. Some opposition and civil society members see recent trips around the country by CNRD and transitional government members as disguised election campaigns to prepare the public for a Doumbouya candidacy. An Afrobarometer study shows that while Guineans have a relatively high level of confidence in the transitional authorities and are satisfied with its achievements in terms of road infrastructure, their desire for democracy remains. As Guinea moves towards constitutional order, it needs help from international actors and partners. Ecowas' technical mission to Conakry in April to support the transition is welcomed. Its assistance to the transitional government, notably in mobilising funding through a 'round table of partners', is also significant. With the backing of the AU and the United Nations (UN), this technical support should be complemented by sustained political and diplomatic efforts, as the UN's November 2024 assessment report indicated. Such efforts must consider the regional context and the need for Ecowas to stand by its democratic governance principles. Ecowas should encourage dialogue to reach consensus on the technical and political conditions for holding the various elections. Talks will reduce tensions and help foster a more peaceful environment ahead of the polls. This is vital, considering that electoral crises have historically been a catalyst for political tensions in Guinea. DM
Straits Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Jihadist violence and coups test West Africa ECOWAS bloc at 50
People walk into the Eko Conventional Hall where leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will gather to celebrate the golden jubilee of the regional bloc in Nigeria's commercial capital, Lagos, Nigeria, May 28, 2025. Picture taken using slow shutter speed. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun Students walk into the Eko Conventional Hall where leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will gather to celebrate the golden jubilee of the regional bloc in Nigeria's commercial capital, Lagos, Nigeria, May 28, 2025. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun A banner is displayed inside the Eko Conventional Hall where leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will gather to celebrate the golden jubilee of the regional bloc in Nigeria's commercial capital, Lagos, Nigeria, May 28, 2025. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun A statue is seen inside the Eko Conventional Hall where leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will gather to celebrate the golden jubilee of the regional bloc in Nigeria's commercial capital, Lagos, Nigeria, May 28, 2025. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun LAGOS - The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) faces growing threats of terrorism, climate change, military coups, and poverty, its most senior official said on Wednesday as leaders marked 50 years since the bloc's formation in Nigeria. Jihadist violence has surged this year in Nigeria and the Sahel region, including Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - nations that have recently seceded from ECOWAS in protest over sanctions following military coups. "We are confronting the greatest challenges we face today, terrorism, climate change and unconstitutional change of government, poverty and economic disparities," ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray said, expressing confidence in overcoming the challenges. Established on May 28, 1975, ECOWAS aimed to promote regional economic integration, security cooperation, human rights, and democratic governance. However, five decades later, military juntas in founding member states Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have disassociated from the bloc, saying it no longer serves their interests. The countries have formed their own Alliance of Sahel States and a confederation, cut military and diplomatic ties with Western powers and sought closer cooperation with Russia. Touray said ECOWAS would continue trying to cooperate with the three countries. Security and political analysts said curbing insecurity was crucial for ECOWAS to fulfill its promise of prosperity and lift millions from poverty. Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risk in Dakar, Senegal, said: "If you don't have security, then of course it means that you cannot guarantee a robust economy in the region." Analysts also criticized ECOWAS for its silence when leaders controversially amend constitutions to extend their rule, leading to citizens applauding military coups. They cited the recent example of Togo's leader Faure Gnassingbe, who was granted the influential new role of President of the Council of Ministers with no fixed term limit - a move opposition parties labelled a constitutional coup potentially extending his rule indefinitely. REUTERS Find out more about climate change and how it could affect you on the ST microsite here.
New Indian Express
2 days ago
- Politics
- New Indian Express
At 50, West Africa bloc ECOWAS teeters amid shifting alliances, security woes
LAGOS: Leaders of ECOWAS on Wednesday celebrated 50 years since its formation, reflecting on regional security challenges and internal fractures as Africa as a whole also seeks answers in the face of US trade tariffs and aid cuts. The anniversary comes at one of the worst of moments in recent years for the Economic Community of West African States, which was once internationally respected as a force for stability. Three junta-led countries Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger quit the bloc earlier this year. ECOWAS is also grappling with its security challenges with jihadists exploiting strained relationships between members and gaining ground in the Sahel and Lake Chad region. Benin and Nigeria have experienced a wave of attacks in recent months. And the Sahel region was in 2024 ranked the epicentre of global "terrorism" for the second straight year, accounting for more than half of deaths put down to terror attacks worldwide, according to the Global Terrorism Index published in March. Coups and attempted putsches have rocked nearly half of the original ECOWAS countries in the last decade, putting democracy on the ropes and straining relations among neighbours. Retired General Yakubu Gowon, 90, Nigeria's former military leader and the only surviving co-founder of the organisation, was confident the trio would return to the ECOWAS fold. "In recent years, we have witnessed the troubling resurgence of military coups in some of our member states. We thought that was over, but it seems as though personal ambition drives some people to do the wrong thing," he said in an address to the gathering at a Lagos hotel. "Our sister nations that have chosen to exit the community may in time reconsider their decision, as the bonds of history, culture, and shared destiny remain unbroken". "I am confident that with goodwill and sincere engagement, they will find a reason to return to ECOWAS family, stronger, more united, and committed to our common vision for West Africa. I believe, sooner or later, they will... come back," Gowon added.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Jihadist violence and coups test West Africa ECOWAS bloc at 50
LAGOS (Reuters) -The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) faces growing threats of terrorism, climate change, military coups, and poverty, its most senior official said on Wednesday as leaders marked 50 years since the bloc's formation in Nigeria. Jihadist violence has surged this year in Nigeria and the Sahel region, including Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - nations that have recently seceded from ECOWAS in protest over sanctions following military coups. "We are confronting the greatest challenges we face today, terrorism, climate change and unconstitutional change of government, poverty and economic disparities," ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray said, expressing confidence in overcoming the challenges. Established on May 28, 1975, ECOWAS aimed to promote regional economic integration, security cooperation, human rights, and democratic governance. However, five decades later, military juntas in founding member states Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have disassociated from the bloc, saying it no longer serves their interests. The countries have formed their own Alliance of Sahel States and a confederation, cut military and diplomatic ties with Western powers and sought closer cooperation with Russia. Touray said ECOWAS would continue trying to cooperate with the three countries. Security and political analysts said curbing insecurity was crucial for ECOWAS to fulfill its promise of prosperity and lift millions from poverty. Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risk in Dakar, Senegal, said: "If you don't have security, then of course it means that you cannot guarantee a robust economy in the region." Analysts also criticized ECOWAS for its silence when leaders controversially amend constitutions to extend their rule, leading to citizens applauding military coups. They cited the recent example of Togo's leader Faure Gnassingbe, who was granted the influential new role of President of the Council of Ministers with no fixed term limit - a move opposition parties labelled a constitutional coup potentially extending his rule indefinitely.
The Star
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Star
Jihadist violence and coups test West Africa ECOWAS bloc at 50
A statue is seen inside the Eko Conventional Hall where leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will gather to celebrate the golden jubilee of the regional bloc in Nigeria's commercial capital, Lagos, Nigeria, May 28, 2025. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun LAGOS (Reuters) -The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) faces growing threats of terrorism, climate change, military coups, and poverty, its most senior official said on Wednesday as leaders marked 50 years since the bloc's formation in Nigeria. Jihadist violence has surged this year in Nigeria and the Sahel region, including Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - nations that have recently seceded from ECOWAS in protest over sanctions following military coups. "We are confronting the greatest challenges we face today, terrorism, climate change and unconstitutional change of government, poverty and economic disparities," ECOWAS Commission President Omar Alieu Touray said, expressing confidence in overcoming the challenges. Established on May 28, 1975, ECOWAS aimed to promote regional economic integration, security cooperation, human rights, and democratic governance. However, five decades later, military juntas in founding member states Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have disassociated from the bloc, saying it no longer serves their interests. The countries have formed their own Alliance of Sahel States and a confederation, cut military and diplomatic ties with Western powers and sought closer cooperation with Russia. Touray said ECOWAS would continue trying to cooperate with the three countries. Security and political analysts said curbing insecurity was crucial for ECOWAS to fulfill its promise of prosperity and lift millions from poverty. Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risk in Dakar, Senegal, said: "If you don't have security, then of course it means that you cannot guarantee a robust economy in the region." Analysts also criticized ECOWAS for its silence when leaders controversially amend constitutions to extend their rule, leading to citizens applauding military coups. They cited the recent example of Togo's leader Faure Gnassingbe, who was granted the influential new role of President of the Council of Ministers with no fixed term limit - a move opposition parties labelled a constitutional coup potentially extending his rule indefinitely. (Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe in Lagos and Ope Adetayo in Abuja, Editing by Bate Felix, William Maclean)
