Israel-Iran ceasefire: Reliance, HDFC Bank, others push Nifty to 25,200; what could be next target for the index?

Mint

5 hours ago

Led by gains in shares of heavyweights, including Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Infosys, and Titan, the Indian stock market benchmark Nifty 50 reclaimed the psychologically important level of 25,200 in morning trade on Wednesday, June 25. The key index extended gains to the second consecutive session amid positive global cues as the Israel-Iran ceasefire boosted investors' risk appetite.
The Nifty 50 opened at 25,150 against its previous close of 25,044 and rose 0.70 per cent to an intraday high of 25,208.60. The Sensex also climbed by 0.70 per cent to an intraday high of 82,614.
Global stocks jumped, and the US dollar softened on easing tensions between Israel and Iran. Iranian media denied the news reports which suggested Iran violated the ceasefire.
Experts noted that the ceasefire is likely to hold following US President Donald Trump's strong response to developments that may have jeopardised the truce.
Track Israel-Iran ceasefire highlights here
The Nifty 50 is eyeing breaking and sustaining above the 25,200 level, which may pave the way for further upside closer to 25,800.
In the previous session, the index hit an intraday high of 25,318, but failed to hold altitude and ended at 25,044 after reports emerged of Israel-Iran ceasefire violations.
Rohit Srivastava, the founder and market strategist at Indiacharts.com, pointed out that the Nifty is exhibiting a classic uptrend pattern, marked by higher highs and higher lows, confirming the strength of the trend in line with Dow Theory.
"The index is currently struggling to break above the midpoint of the rising channel, which lies around 25,200. A decisive close above this level could signal a potential move toward the top of the channel at 25,800," said Srivastava.
"On the downside, the lower end of the channel at 24,650 serves as the final support. As long as Nifty holds above the previous swing low of 24,733, the uptrend remains intact," Srivastava said.
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, pointed out that a decisive breach above 25,250 is needed for a fresh upward move in the coming days.
According to Parekh, on the downside, the 50EMA level at 24,500 would be a crucial support.
While easing geopolitical tensions is a major relief, a combination of factors needs to work together for the Indian market to sustain gains.
In the coming days, focus will likely shift to India-US trade negotiations as the July 9 deadline approaches.
The bilateral trade talks between the two countries continue, with India, as per reports, resisting US demands to open its markets for wheat, dairy and corn imports.
The progress of monsoon and Q1FY26 earnings will also be key factors that will dictate the market trend.
Strong domestic fundamentals and improving global sentiment will support the Indian market, even though it may remain volatile due to global uncertainty.
"With policy continuity, strong domestic fundamentals, and improving global sentiment, the environment remains supportive for equities. If earnings growth stays on track and global headwinds remain contained, a double-digit return for the full year is certainly within reach," Pawan Jain, the founder and chairman of Ashika Group, told Mint.
"That said, markets may see intermittent volatility, and investors should remain disciplined. The long-term India story remains strong, and we expect continued momentum in sectors aligned with structural growth themes," said Jain.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, underscored that the main challenge for investors now is to find stocks with the right growth-value mix since growth stocks are highly valued.
"For long-term investors, stocks in segments like the capital market, domestic consumption like aviation, telecom and premium consumption like hotels, automobiles and jewellery hold promise," said Vijayakumar.
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