Netanyahu has pushed Hamas to the brink of destruction
But as the past few weeks have shown, it's not quite as simple as that. The reaction by Hamas to the Government's plan to recognise a Palestine state – the same applies to similar announcements by France, Canada and Australia – shows that we nonetheless have the ability to throw a giant spanner in the works.
Sir Keir Starmer's statement last month had one immediate effect: it emboldened Hamas and destroyed ceasefire talks that had appeared to be making progress. As Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, put it: 'When you have all these European nations saying, 'Israel's not going to have a ceasefire, we're going to go ahead and unilaterally recognise a Palestinian state,' what do you think that did with Hamas? It emboldened them. It empowered them. And that's when negotiations were over right then.'
That is the context in which the latest development in the ceasefire talks needs to be seen, with Hamas reportedly agreeing to a joint Egyptian-Qatari proposal for it to release 10 of the remaining living hostages and 18 bodies (there are believed to be 20 still alive, and another 30 or so dead) during a 60-day truce, with further negotiations over a permanent ceasefire.
The question being asked is why Hamas has seemingly done a volte-face and agreed to a ceasefire, barely three weeks after walking away from the last round. First, we simply don't know what, if any, pressure is being applied by Qatar, which is the only nation other than Iran that can force Hamas to act as it wants.
But we do know that there is even more pressure on Hamas now from another direction: Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu has been pilloried in Britain and elsewhere for his recently announced plan to occupy Gaza City and to widen military action to all of Gaza.
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