Palm oil prices to hit 2-year low at RM3,500 per tonne in June-November, analyst Mistry says
The benchmark palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 38 ringgit, or 1%, to 3,754 ringgit a metric ton by the midday break. They hit a more than two-year high of 5,202 ringgit in November.
"Palm oil stock-build has commenced. Supplies look plentiful especially as production picks up from now," Mistry told an industry conference in Dubai.
Palm oil production usually rises in top two producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, in the second half of the year.
Palm oil's premium over rival soyoil in recent months led to a loss of market share. However, palm oil has now become slightly competitive and must maintain this competitiveness to recover its market share, he said, referring to the recent fall in prices.
In India, a top palm oil importer, the share of palm oil in the country's vegetable oil imports fell to 43% during November to March, compared to 61% a year ago, according to data compiled by industry body Solvent Extractors' Association of India.
U.S. soyoil futures are expected to remain strong due to rising demand from the local biofuel industry, following Indonesia's restriction on exports of used cooking oil and palm oil mill effluent, which were previously used for biofuels, Mistry said.
India's vegetable oil imports in 2025 are likely to fall from a year ago as the crushing of oilseeds, especially rapeseed, gains momentum due to export demand for rapeseed meal, he said.
China has been raising Indian rapeseed meal purchases after Chinese authorities imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian imports. - Reuters
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Focus Malaysia
an hour ago
- Focus Malaysia
Closing the gap between vision and implementation in NIMP 2030
Letter to Editor MALAYSIA's National Industrial Master Plan (NIMP) 2030, launched recently, is undoubtedly a policy born of necessity and ambition. It recognises a fundamental truth: the linear 'take-make-dispose' model is economically and environmentally bankrupt for a resource-hungry nation. The vision – transforming Malaysia into a regional leader in sustainable, high-value manufacturing through circularity – is not just commendable; it's essential. However, since the launch, the gap between this laudable vision and the gritty reality of implementation reveals significant hurdles that demand urgent attention. Malaysia is heavily import-dependent for critical raw materials. Circular strategies (remanufacturing, recycling, resource efficiency) directly mitigate supply chain risks and price volatility. Moving beyond low-margin commodity exports towards high-value circular services (product-as-a-service, advanced recycling, reverse logistics) promises new revenue streams and jobs. Addressing rampant waste (especially plastic and e-waste), pollution, and carbon emissions is crucial for public health, ecosystem preservation, and meeting climate commitments. As major markets (EU, US, Japan) impose stricter circularity standards and carbon border adjustments (CBAM), Malaysian exports must adapt to remain competitive. The NIMP positions industries proactively. The plan's focus on key sectors like E&E, chemicals, aerospace, and medical devices, where circularity can yield significant material savings and innovation, is strategically sound. The emphasis on integrating SMEs into the circular value chain is also vital for inclusive growth. Despite its strong foundation, translating the NIMP's circular ambitions into tangible results faces formidable challenges. While targeting waste as a resource is key, Malaysia lacks the scale and sophistication of collection, sorting, and recycling infrastructure needed, particularly for complex waste streams like e-waste or composites. The plastic recycling rate stagnating around 24-28% highlights this gap. Building this infrastructure requires massive, coordinated public and private investment far beyond current commitments. Shifting entire industrial processes to circular models demands significant upfront capital. SMEs, the backbone of the economy, struggle to access affordable green financing. While NIMP mentions blended finance, concrete mechanisms to de-risk investments for banks and attract large-scale institutional capital are still nascent. The estimated RM100-150 bil funding gap for NIMP goals looms large. The success of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes – crucial for shifting waste management costs to producers – hinges on robust, consistent regulation and enforcement. Delays in finalising and implementing mandatory EPR frameworks for key sectors create uncertainty and allow laggards to persist with linear models. Policy alignment across federal, state, and local levels remains a persistent challenge. Circular products often face cost disadvantages against virgin materials due to distorted economics (e.g., fossil fuel subsidies). Government procurement policies favouring circular products need strengthening. More importantly, fostering genuine *consumer and B2B demand* for repaired, remanufactured, or recycled-content goods requires overcoming perceptions and building trust in quality and performance. Moving beyond basic recycling to high-value circularity (e.g., chemical recycling, advanced remanufacturing, biomaterials) requires significant R&D and technology adoption. Bridging the 'valley of death' between lab innovation and commercial scale demands targeted support, pilot facilities, and stronger industry-academia collaboration – areas needing acceleration under NIMP. The NIMP's initial stage has likely involved crucial groundwork – setting targets, establishing governance structures (like the NIMP Council), and initiating studies. The real test begins now. To avoid the circular economy becoming merely a buzzword within the master plan, Malaysia must finalise and implement mandatory, sector-specific EPR schemes with clear timelines and enforcement teeth. Streamline permitting for circular economy projects. And move beyond promises to operationalise innovative financing mechanisms (green bonds, guarantees, results-based finance) specifically tailored for circular SMEs and infrastructure projects. Leverage development banks and international green funds aggressively. We need to build infrastructure at scale. Prioritise public investment in integrated waste management and recycling parks, leveraging PPP models where feasible. Focus on closing loops for priority waste streams identified in NIMP. Implement stringent green public procurement rules. Launch awareness campaigns targeting businesses and consumers. Explore fiscal incentives for circular products and disincentives for linear ones. Fostering innovation ecosystems is the way forward. Establish dedicated circular economy innovation hubs with pilot lines. Provide grants and technical assistance for SMEs adopting circular tech. Strengthen linkages between universities, research institutes, and industry. It is important to ensure workforce reskilling programmes are integral to the circular shift, protecting jobs while creating new, higher-quality opportunities. Support SMEs in navigating the transition. Malaysia's NIMP 2030, with its core focus on the circular economy, is a visionary response to global and domestic challenges. It deserves recognition for setting a bold direction. However, vision alone is insufficient. The first year has exposed the sheer scale of the transformation required. The coming year is critical. It must move from planning to unambiguous action, tackling the financing gaps, infrastructure deficits, regulatory hurdles, and market barriers head-on. The circular transition is not merely an environmental add-on; it's the bedrock of future industrial resilience, competitiveness, and sustainable growth. Malaysia has the blueprint. Now, it needs the relentless execution, the political will, and the collaborative spirit to turn its circular vision into reality. The world is moving in this direction; Malaysia's window to lead, not just follow, in the region is open, but it won't stay open forever. The NIMP's success hinges on treating the next year not as a continuation of planning, but as the urgent launchpad for tangible, transformative change. The circular future is not just green; it must be golden for Malaysia. —Aug 17, 2025 The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia. Professor Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim is an associate fellow at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies, Universiti Malaya. Main image: Unsplash
The Star
2 hours ago
- The Star
As megacities slow, China's smaller counties lead as new consumer hotspots
As widespread economic gloom in China's megacities sees high-end restaurants close their doors one after another, Starbucks is accelerating its expansion into the country's far-flung counties, where a growing number of residents are embracing a petit-bourgeois lifestyle. While county shopping centres might not stock Dyson vacuum cleaners and hairdryers, they have already become part of daily life in households in urban counties thanks to China's ubiquitous e-commerce networks. Driving Teslas and eating expensive cherries imported from South America, the expanding middle class in smaller cities and towns is fuelling China's next wave of consumption. As the world's second-largest economy grows more slowly, residents of major cities have reined in their spending. But the consumption upgrade in China's more numerous lower-tier markets is far from complete, experts said. With lighter economic burdens, faster income growth and greater confidence in the future, consumers in such areas have stronger purchasing power and a greater willingness to spend, becoming a new engine for consumption growth as China seeks to shift its economy towards a consumption-driven model and away from one relying on exports and investment. 'Lower-tier cities have been overlooked in the past, with their consumption potential untapped, while the disposable consumption capacity of first-tier city residents is more affected by the slowing economy,' said Professor Liu Xuexin, who heads a consumer data research institute at Capital University of Economics and Business in Beijing. In China's governance hierarchy, county-level cities sit below prefecture-level ones, covering smaller urban and rural areas, including townships and villages, and serving as regional hubs for commerce, education, healthcare and local government. Classified by their economic strength and population, such cities are usually – and informally – referred to as being third-tier or lower, lacking the scale and influence of first- or second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and the provincial capitals. A typical third-tier city is Yiwu, in east China's Zhejiang province, which is known for its globally focused wholesale markets. According to the 2020 census, about 509 million people lived in China's first- and second-tier cities, meaning around 903 million lived outside them. A nationwide survey conducted by management consultancy McKinsey & Company at the end of last year found that nearly 80 per cent of Chinese consumers in third- and fourth-tier cities expressed optimism about the economy, compared with 70 per cent in second-tier cities and 67 per cent in first-tier ones. However, the rates for all were down compared with 2023, it said in a report released in May. In terms of retail sales, about 97 per cent of the 171 non-first-tier cities across China that publish such data reported positive year-on-year growth last year, with third- and fourth-tier cities outperforming, according to statistics compiled by Chinese news app in March. Yuxi, a fourth-tier city in Yunnan province, reported the highest growth rate at 8.8 per cent. In contrast, official figures showed that Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods fell 3.1 per cent last year, while those in Beijing declined 2.7 per cent. Lily Huang, a housewife who moved from Beijing to Haiyan, a county-level city in Zhejiang, several years ago with her family, said she now buys the same kinds of products she used to buy in Beijing, despite the bad macroeconomic environment in recent years and its effects on incomes. 'We don't feel a lot of pressure, most probably because we don't have a large loan to repay since home prices are much cheaper here,' she said. A lower housing price-to-income ratio than in high-tier cities is one reason lower-tier cities are experiencing faster consumption growth, according to a research note issued by China International Capital Corporation in June. Higher proportions of handed-down properties, greater family financial support for home purchases and lower overall debt burdens have also contributed, it said. Besides, market penetration rates in many consumer sectors in high-tier cities have nearly reached saturation point, leaving little room for further expansion. Using ready-to-drink coffee as an example, the frequency of consumption among consumers in China's first- and second-tier cities is approaching that of Japan, South Korea and Western countries, analysts from Puyin International said in a note issued in June. However, the overall penetration rate in China remained significantly lower than in high-tier cities, they said. Consumers in higher-tier cities, who are generally wealthier, are less sensitive to policy stimuli Well aware of this trend, Starbucks entered 166 new county-level markets in China in the 2024 financial year. In its second-quarter business update this year, Starbucks China said there were Starbucks stores in more than 1,000 county-level markets. A series of government policies has also boosted consumption confidence in such regions, according to the Puyin International note. 'In contrast, consumers in higher-tier cities, who are generally wealthier, are less sensitive to policy stimuli, and meanwhile they face greater employment pressures, more severe asset depreciation due to falling housing prices, and a higher potential impact from tariff wars,' it said. A nationwide consumer goods trade-in programme has been in place in China since March last year as the authorities work to drive spending and boost the economy. Fu Longcheng, vice-president of the China General Chamber of Commerce, told a news conference in January that the consumption structure in county-level markets is being optimised and upgraded, with increased spending on developmental and experiential consumption, as well as service-oriented consumption, and clear trends towards more consumption for personal gratification. 'Entertainment formats such as cinemas, along with new tea drinks, fast fashion and maternity chains are continuously entering county markets, while new consumption models like live-streaming e-commerce and instant retail are rapidly integrating, boosting the momentum for quality enhancement and expansion of county-level consumption,' Fu said. Products in hot demand not only include trendy milk tea and artisanal baked goods, once exclusively found in first- and second-tier cities, but also Boston lobsters and Sam's Club speciality products on dining tables and tickets for music festivals and concerts. More spending by affluent rural residents is also contributing as the country's top leadership pushes forward with an urbanisation drive, reiterating its determination over the past few years to make it easier for farmers to settle in urban areas. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics said that rural retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.3 per cent last year, outpacing urban growth by 0.9 of a percentage point. In line with that, the McKinsey survey found that the proportion of rural consumers who were optimistic rose by 6 percentage points last year to 73 per cent. Members of Gen Z – those born between 1996 and 2010 – from high-income families in rural areas stood out as the most confident, with 88 per cent having an optimistic outlook, 11 percentage points higher than in 2023. Meanwhile, county tourism is emerging as a vital contributor to efforts to increase consumption's role in the Chinese economy, attracting young people from first-tier cities seeking cost-effective, experiential getaways and at the same time fostering sustainable growth in lower-tier regions. Reports from several travel platforms have highlighted it as a hot trend this year, with posts on RedNote, China's leading lifestyle app, touting the middle-class appeal and affordability of horse riding and tennis lessons in county-level cities. The ITB China Travel Trends Report 2024/25 noted that rural counties are increasingly popular destinations among younger travellers drawn to authentic experiences such as ecotourism and cultural festivals. Huang said she had welcomed several batches of friends from Beijing who had visited Haiyan for sightseeing in the past couple of years. 'They really enjoyed the stay here as it is cheap and relaxing,' she said. In a plan aimed at revitalising rural areas during the period from 2024 to 2027, the State Council, China's cabinet, outlined measures to 'fully promote rural consumption', including the development of county-level commercial systems, providing a key focus for unleashing rural consumption potential. But researchers remain cautious about whether the rise of consumption in lower-tier markets is sufficient to revitalise overall consumer activity. Liu, the Beijing professor, noted that compared to big cities, lower-tier cities lag behind in infrastructure and the overall consumption environment, including consumer rights protection, limiting their consumption potential. 'Whether the consumption boom in these regions can sustain China's shift to a consumption-driven economy is hard to answer, but it is undoubtedly a crucial supplement,' he said. Fudan University economist Shi Lei said that while growth is evident, county-level consumption still faces constraints, primarily due to insufficient local financial resources, with many areas, including regions mainly populated by ethnic minorities, relying on fiscal transfer payments from higher-level governments to sustain development. 'In the long term, the potential arising from underdevelopment should be recognised,' he said. 'But short-term performance should not be overestimated.' -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
The Sun
2 hours ago
- The Sun
Malaysians use AI in shopping at rate that outpaces global average: Adyen
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