What militant's arrest means for Rohingyas' future
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The arrest by Bangladeshi police of Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, the leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, on the outskirts of Dhaka last week marks a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict in Myanmar. Ataullah's capture raises critical questions about the future of Rohingya militancy, the shifting dynamics in Rakhine State and the prospects for stability in the region.
Ataullah emerged in 2016-17 as the face of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, a militant group that claimed to defend the Rohingya people against the brutal persecution they faced at the hands of the Myanmar military. While he framed the group as a resistance movement, its activities often exacerbated the suffering of the Rohingya. His rhetoric and actions gained him support from disenfranchised youth seeking protection, while others viewed him as reckless and his actions as counterproductive.
Ataullah's radicalization was influenced by the systemic discrimination and violence suffered by the Rohingya. He presented himself as a defender of the stateless minority, leveraging grievances to gain followers. However, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army's lack of sophisticated weaponry and training made it more symbolic than strategic in its operations. Despite its stated goals of protecting the Rohingya, its actions often invited disproportionate and devastating retaliation from the Myanmar military.
Ataullah was captured in Bangladesh, where his group had been increasingly active in refugee camps. His arrest was the culmination of a long-standing crackdown on criminal networks and extremist groups operating in the camps. Bangladeshi authorities, facing mounting pressure to restore order, collaborated with intelligence agencies to apprehend him. While the details of his capture remain undisclosed, it is believed that Ataullah had been attempting to evade arrest by moving between various safe houses.
This development has been welcomed by many who blamed the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army for sowing insecurity within the Rohingya community. Incidents of extortion, targeted killings and forced recruitment attributed to the group have destabilized the refugee camps in Cox's Bazar. The arrest may lead to the dismantling of its operational network in Bangladesh, though ideological support for the group may persist.
Its attacks on Myanmar border posts in 2016 and 2017 served as a pretext for the military's genocidal campaign against the Rohingya. The Tatmadaw, Myanmar's armed forces, unleashed a scorched-earth assault that forced over 700,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh. While the military framed its actions as a counterterrorism response, the overwhelming evidence of mass killings, sexual violence and village burnings revealed the true genocidal intent.
Only through genuine political will and coordinated diplomatic efforts can the cycle of violence and persecution be broken.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
Human rights organizations and investigative bodies have consistently debunked the narrative that the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army posed a significant security threat. However, the group's attacks, though limited in scope, were manipulated to justify the ethnic cleansing campaign. Ataullah's decision to launch these attacks proved catastrophic for his own people, resulting in one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history.
Ataullah's leadership polarized the Rohingya. Some saw him as a defender of their community, standing up against Myanmar's systematic persecution when no one else did. For others, particularly the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, his actions brought further suffering and retribution. Reports of its involvement in criminal activities, including extortion and targeted assassinations, further tarnished its reputation.
While the group initially gained support among desperate Rohingya youths, its tactics soon alienated many. Community leaders accused it of undermining efforts for peaceful repatriation and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Ataullah's rigid leadership style and reluctance to engage in broader political advocacy also limited its influence.
With Ataullah's arrest, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army's operational capacity is expected to diminish. However, the root causes of Rohingya militancy remain unresolved. The lack of citizenship, restricted movement and systemic discrimination continue to fuel resentment. Without a comprehensive political solution, the emergence of new militant factions cannot be ruled out.
The Rohingya diaspora and the younger generation growing up in refugee camps have bleak prospects. Limited educational and economic opportunities, coupled with the trauma of genocide, create fertile ground for radicalization. Regional actors and international stakeholders must address these underlying grievances to prevent the resurgence of militant activity.
Complicating the landscape further is the growing influence of the Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine insurgent group that now controls much of Rakhine State. Unlike the Tatmadaw, the Arakan Army has expressed some willingness to negotiate with Rohingya communities. However, its ban on the use of the term 'Rohingya' underscores the ongoing challenges in achieving recognition and justice.
The Arakan Army's territorial gains have reshaped the power dynamics in Rakhine State. With the Myanmar military weakened and distracted by conflicts elsewhere, it has consolidated control over key regions. The group's pragmatic approach to governance presents a potential opportunity for dialogue, but its long-term commitment to inclusive governance remains uncertain.
The arrest of Ataullah offers an opportunity for regional and international actors to press for a more inclusive and sustainable resolution. Bangladesh, Myanmar's national unity government and the Arakan Army must engage in meaningful dialogue with Rohingya representatives to address grievances and ensure the safe, voluntary and dignified return of refugees.
International organizations must also expand their support for development initiatives within Rakhine State, creating alternative pathways for disenfranchised young people. Programs focusing on education, vocational training and reconciliation can mitigate the appeal of militancy and contribute to long-term stability.
Ultimately, the fall of one militant leader does not resolve the deep-seated issues facing the Rohingya. Only through genuine political will and coordinated diplomatic efforts can the cycle of violence and persecution be broken, paving the way for a just and lasting peace in Myanmar.
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Arab News
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Arab News
25-05-2025
- Arab News
Rohingya refugees at the mercy of climate change
The Rohingya, a persecuted Muslim minority from Myanmar, face an escalating crisis in Bangladesh's overcrowded refugee camps. More than a million Rohingya have fled genocide and violence in Rakhine State since 2017, seeking refuge in Cox's Bazar, where they live in sprawling, makeshift settlements. These camps, among the most densely populated spaces on earth, are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. Cyclones, floods and earthquakes threaten the region, while rising sea levels shrink Bangladesh's landmass. Without urgent international investment in disaster preparedness, infrastructure and early warning systems — and without successful repatriation — the Rohingya will be among the first and most devastated victims of climate vulnerability. Bangladesh, one of the world's most densely populated countries, is on the front lines of climate change. Its low-lying delta geography makes it acutely susceptible to natural disasters. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of cyclones have increased, with storms like Cyclone Amphan (2020) and Cyclone Mora (2017) causing widespread destruction in Cox's Bazar. Flooding, triggered by monsoon rains and rising sea levels, is a recurring threat. The 2024 monsoon season alone displaced thousands in the camps, with flimsy shelters unable to withstand heavy rains. Adding to the peril, the region lies near tectonic fault lines, with recent earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal signaling growing seismic risks. For the Rohingya, living in bamboo and tarpaulin shelters on steep, deforested hillsides, these hazards are life-threatening. The camps, home to more than 1.2 million people, are a humanitarian catastrophe waiting to worsen. Designed as temporary shelters, they lack the infrastructure to endure extreme weather. Narrow, muddy pathways become impassable during floods. Poor drainage systems exacerbate waterlogging, breeding disease in overcrowded conditions. Landslides, triggered by heavy rains, have already claimed lives. In 2023, a fire exacerbated by dry conditions and strong winds razed parts of Kutupalong camp, displacing thousands. These disasters expose the camps' fragility, where even moderate climate events can cause disproportionate harm. Rising sea levels compound the crisis. Bangladesh loses approximately 1 percent of its landmass annually to erosion and inundation, with coastal areas like Cox's Bazar particularly at risk. By 2050, experts estimate that 17 percent of Bangladesh's land could be submerged, displacing millions, including the Rohingya. For a community already confined to shrinking, flood-prone land, this is a death sentence unless drastic measures are taken. The climate crisis disproportionately harms vulnerable populations like the Rohingya, who contribute negligibly to global emissions. Dr. Azeem Ibrahim Repatriation to Myanmar remains the preferred long-term solution, but prospects are bleak. Myanmar's junta, responsible for the Rohingya's expulsion, shows no willingness to ensure safe returns. Political instability following the 2021 coup has further dimmed hopes. Two failed repatriation attempts in 2018 and 2019, boycotted by the Rohingya due to fears of continued persecution, underscore the challenge. Without a viable path to return, the Rohingya remain trapped in camps ill-equipped for the climate realities of the 21st century. Bangladesh, despite its generosity in hosting the Rohingya, cannot address this crisis alone. The country faces its own climate adaptation challenges, with a gross domestic product per capita of just $2,800 and a population of 170 million. Resources are stretched thin. The government has invested in some camp improvements, such as concrete drainage channels and cyclone shelters, but these are insufficient for the scale of the threat. With 30,000 children born in the camps annually, the Rohingya population continues to grow. By 2030, the camps could house 1.5 million people, making the need for robust infrastructure urgent. International support has been inadequate. In 2024, the UN's Joint Response Plan for the Rohingya was only 37 percent funded, leaving critical gaps in food, healthcare and shelter. Disaster preparedness receives even less attention. Early warning systems, which could save lives by alerting residents to impending cyclones or floods, are rudimentary. Many Rohingya lack access to mobile networks or radios, while language barriers hinder communication. Infrastructure upgrades — elevated shelters, reinforced roads and reforestation to prevent landslides — require billions of dollars, far beyond Bangladesh's capacity. The international community must act swiftly. First, funding must prioritize climate-resilient infrastructure. Elevated, durable shelters can withstand floods and winds. Improved drainage and sanitation systems can mitigate disease outbreaks. Reforestation efforts can stabilize hillsides against landslides. Second, early warning systems must be expanded. Solar-powered radios, multilingual alerts and community-based disaster training can empower Rohingya to respond to threats. Third, renewable energy solutions, like solar microgrids, can reduce reliance on firewood, curbing deforestation and fire risks. These measures, while costly, are far cheaper than the human and economic toll of inaction. Global powers, particularly wealthy nations with high carbon emissions, bear a moral responsibility. The climate crisis disproportionately harms vulnerable populations like the Rohingya, who contribute negligibly to global emissions. The US, EU and other G20 nations must lead funding efforts, not only through humanitarian aid but also through climate adaptation grants. Regional players, including India and China, should support diplomatic efforts to pressure Myanmar for safe repatriation while contributing to camp resilience. The Rohingya crisis is a litmus test for global solidarity. If the world fails to act, the camps will become death traps, with cyclones, floods and earthquakes claiming countless lives. The Rohingya, already victims of genocide, will face a second injustice as climate refugees in a land not their own. But with concerted international action — combining repatriation advocacy with massive investment in disaster preparedness — their suffering can be mitigated. The clock is ticking. The world must decide whether to let the Rohingya become climate change's first high-profile casualty or to act with the urgency the situation demands.
