Utah narrowly missed its driest July on record. Can this week break its dry stretch?

Yahoo

2 days ago

July is typically one of Utah's driest months, but last month narrowly missed a 125-year-old record that explains how drought conditions have worsened as quickly as they have statewide.
Utah collected an average of 0.25 inches of precipitation last month, well short of the nearly inch of rain it averaged during the 20th century, according to data released by the National Centers for Environmental Information. It also ended up the second-driest July since statewide data was first collected in 1895 — just 0.05 inches above the record-low collected in July 1900.
Last month was also 2.7 degrees above the average, but not as hot as the last few years. Its average of 74.2 degrees Fahrenheit tied for 17th warmest July on record, while the previous three years remain among the 10 hottest on record.
Utah's meteorological summer — the combination of June, July and August — could ultimately break a record that was also set in 1900.
Paired with June, which was the state's 34th driest on record, this summer is on track for its fifth-driest on record. The state needs to collect more than a third of an inch overall statewide by the end of August to avoid the 125-year-old record low of 0.88 inches statewide.
The numbers reflect a predominant pattern that has kept Utah warm, dry and windy so far this summer. The traditional pattern that often brings oceanic moisture to Utah — typically from mid-July through August — has mostly set up farther south and east than it normally does, meaning that more storms have ended up in areas south and east of Utah, Sam Webber, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told KSL.com last week.
A series of low-pressure patterns also set up over the Pacific Northwest, but none of those ended up in Utah. As such, many Utah cities have experienced long periods without rain.
Salt Lake City hasn't received measurable rain since July 4. Even southern Utah communities more likely to receive monsoonal rains in the summer — like Monticello and Cedar City — have not received measurable rain in over three weeks.
All of this has shown up on the drought map. About 70% of Utah was in drought at the end of May, including 46% in severe or extreme drought. The whole state is now in drought, including 66% in severe or extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Utah's reservoir system also dropped from 86% capacity in June to 70% by the start of this week, per state data.
Monsoonal return?
Monsoonal rain is back in Utah's forecast this week, which could break up some of the state's dry streaks, but it's unclear yet how beneficial the storms will be.
A high-pressure system coming into Utah via the Pacific Coast will first create more hot and dry conditions for the first half of this week. It will then help bring in monsoonal moisture as it continues moving east, crossing the Four Corners during the second half of the week, said KSL meteorologist Devan Masciulli.
The way the system is forecast to move is expected to create a more traditional monsoonal setup, possibly creating isolated showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Many parts of the state have a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation on Thursday and Friday, as it's difficult to project where monsoonal showers will set up or how much a storm will deliver.
The only problem is that weather forecast models aren't overly optimistic about Utah's precipitation totals. Northeast Utah and parts of south-central Utah could end up with the highest totals by the end of the week, projected to be closer to 0.5 inches, according to the National Weather Service. That could bring decent moisture over the Monroe Canyon and Beulah fires burning in those two regions.
But with less moisture in the models, Masciulli points out that storms could lead to more microbursts and dry thunderstorms — two elements that can spark new fires and spread existing ones. It's something that meteorologists and firefighters will both track this week.
Full seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online, at the KSL Weather Center.
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