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Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Yahoo
Is Erin coming to Tallahassee area or Florida? Tracking what may become a Cat. 3 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erin continues to move quickly to the west and is expected to begin strengthening today, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters are now encouraging residents in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands to closely monitor Erin, which is expected to begin strengthening today. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast Erin is expected to become a hurricane late Thursday, Aug. 14 or early Friday, Aug. 15 and strengthen into a major hurricane within the next 96 hours. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. While a curve back out to sea is widely expected and forecast in models, the full impact Erin could have on Florida and the U.S. remains uncertain as of Wednesday morning but officials also encourage residents to monitor the storm. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the National Hurricane Center. As for the Gulf Coast of North Florida, the National Weather Service in Tallahassee said "it's too early to determine what, if any, impacts to the Tri-State region." "As the Hurricane Season peak approaches, ensure you're prepared for any threats," they wrote on X. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also weighed in: "Models for Hurricane Erin currently have it turning north and staying far away from Florida. We continue to monitor for any shifts." Forecasters reminded everyone that the forecast cone has an average error of 150 to 215 statute miles in the days 4 and 5 forecast. It's also important to remember that the cone represents where the center of the storm could be. The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22. The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11, and the first major hurricane typically does not occur until Sept. 1, according to AccuWeather. Tropical Storm Erin update, path Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Location: 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph Movement: west at 20 mph Pressure: 1,004 mb Next advisory: 11 a.m. ET When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane? The National Hurricane Center predicted Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday Aug. 14 or early Friday. Erin is expected to continue strengthening, becoming a major hurricane with winds estimated at 115 mph by early Sunday morning. Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin. Where is the storm going? Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin Is there a hurricane coming to Florida? No tropical storm — or hurricane — watches or warnings have been issued for Florida or the United States, and it's too early to tell whether Erin will impact the U.S., according to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and Florida Division of Emergency Management. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the Hurricane Center said. How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where could it go? See the scenarios The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Erin is expected to begin strengthening today, Aug. 13 and become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday and a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday, Aug. 17 as it moves out of an area with dry area and "marginal" sea surface temperatures. Erin is expected to continue moving west across the Atlantic but is expected to turn to the west-northwest as it encounters a weakness in a "ridge" to its north. Exactly where that turn takes place remains uncertain. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week," the National Hurricane Center said. "Users are reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of 150-215 statute miles at days four and five, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible." "At the very least, building seas will pose threats for small craft and larger ocean-going vessels over the western Atlantic. Increasing surf and rip currents will pose dangers for swimmers over much of the U.S. Atlantic coast and Bermuda," AccuWeather forecasters said. "The amount of wind and rain that occurs over the northeastern Caribbean islands and the Bahamas will depend on Erin's size, intensity and its ability to pull moisture northward from the Caribbean." "Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda High over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "It is the shape of that oceanic high, as well as the approach of a cool front and dip in the jet stream near the Atlantic Coast, that will determine the exact track of the projected major hurricane as it approaches the Atlantic Coast of the United States next week." The scenarios, according to AccuWeather are: "If the Bermuda High remains fairly round or yields to the approaching cool front and jet stream dip, Erin is likely to turn to the north before reaching the U.S. "If the Bermuda High extends well to the west, it could block the potential major hurricane's northward path. The result would be a potential track very close to or onshore in the U.S., probably somewhere from the Carolinas north." Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. Erin is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. NHC track forecasts have an average error of 120-180 nautical miles (150-215 statute miles) at days four and five, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible. Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Erin get? At 5 a.m.: 45 mph 12 hours: 50 mph 24 hours: 60 mph 36 hours: 65 mph 48 hours: 75 mph 60 hours: 85 mph 72 hours: 100 mph 96 hours: 115 mph 120 hours: 115 mph Will Tropical Storm Erin impact Florida? What other areas could be affected? It's still early to tell yet what impacts Tropical Storm Erin could have on Florida or the United States, although forecasters said rough surf and dangerous rip currents are possible along the east coast as Erin approaches. Officials warn residents should be prepared and closely monitor the storm that's expected to become a major hurricane by Sunday. "There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in ... the east coast of the United States ... next week," the National Hurricane Center said at 5 a.m. Aug. 13. ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions." Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past? Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Is Erin coming to Tallahassee, Florida area? Cat. 3 hurricane forecast
E&E News
12 hours ago
- E&E News
Tropical Storm Erin expected to become major hurricane by Sunday
Tropical Storm Erin is likely to strengthen into the first major Atlantic hurricane of 2025, with potential wind and storm surge impacts for the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands before shifting to a more northward path toward the Atlantic coast, forecasters said Wednesday. Forecasters say the likelihood of a landfall on the U.S. East Coast remains low, but cautioned residents of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and East Coast states to make sure preparation plans are in order. In its latest update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm 'continues to have a ragged overall appearance,' but expectations are for significant intensification by the end of the week, reaching hurricane status by Friday and major hurricane status by Sunday with winds between 111 and 129 miles per hour. Advertisement The storm is not expected to impact the northern Gulf of Mexico, which President Donald Trump renamed the Gulf of America.
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin path shifts, but still forecast to grow into major hurricane, NHC says
ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Erin on Wednesday continued to push west through the Atlantic with it forecast to become the season's first hurricane, growing to major hurricane strength by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of the NHC's 11 a.m. Eastern time update, the center of Erin was located about 1,300 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 60 miles. 'On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend,' said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. 'Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.' The cone of uncertainty shifted back to the north slightly since Tuesday with the northwest Caribbean islands less likely in the storm's direct path. While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC advised the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to monitor Erin's progress. Swells from the storm will begin to hit the islands by the weekend with dangerous rip current conditions. 'Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past couple of days, likely due to marginal sea surface temperatures, and a relatively dry mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass,' Pasch said. 'However, it is expected that the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for intensification over the next 48 hours.' The forecast from the NHC has Erin intensifying into what would be the season's first hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds by early Thursday, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts of 140 mph by Sunday morning with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic that is just north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Winds could potentially be felt in the islands beginning Friday. 'Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands,' the NHC stated in its key messages for the storm. 'However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.' The impacts on the U.S., Bahamas and Bermuda also remain uncertain. As of 8 a.m., the NHC also was tracking a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms that could develop after it emerges from the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, forecasters said. 'This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph,' forecasters said. The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven. After Erin, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand. A second system that NHC had been tracking in the northwestern Atlantic off the coast of Nova Scotia had its chances for development dropped to 0%. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30. -----------
