The E.U. Is Still Ramping Up Sanctions on Russia. Here's How.

New York Times

20-05-2025

European Union defense and foreign ministers approved a new package of sanctions on Russia on Tuesday, targeting covert oil exports, days after the top E.U. official announced plans for a further set of even tougher restrictions.
The point is to intensify Russia's economic pain — and by doing so, to prod President Vladimir V. Putin toward peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. The push comes as questions mount about how the United States will approach future sanctions.
After a call between President Trump and Mr. Putin on Monday, the White House backed off its demand that Russia declare an immediate cease-fire. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said at a news conference that it was unclear whether the United States would join with Europe in stepping up sanctions.
E.U. nations have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The ones they approved on Tuesday are the 17th set. These take aim at Russia's so-called shadow fleet — old tanker ships that Moscow uses to covertly transport and sell its oil around the world.
Officials are already discussing an 18th package. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the E.U. executive arm, said last week that officials could go after gas pipelines, hit banks and push to further crimp Russia's global energy sales.
'It takes two to want peace, and it takes only one to want war,' Kaja Kallas, the European Union's top diplomat, said on Tuesday. 'In order to make Russia want peace, also, we need to put more pressure on Russia.'
But questions abound about how well sanctions are working — and whether E.U. pressure can force Mr. Putin to change policy.
Here's what European Union sanctions on Russia look like, and what's next.
Sanctions already target individuals and companies.
The measures approved on Tuesday target 189 ships in Russia's shadow fleet, bringing the total of vessels listed to 342. They add to a wide-ranging set of measures that the European Union has patched together since 2022, hoping to squeeze the Russian economy harder with each package.
Overall, the E.U. sanctions target more than 2,400 individuals with restrictions including bank account freezes and travel bans. European officials have already frozen more than 200 billion euros, or about $225 billion, of Russian central bank assets. Russia cannot import European luxury goods and is barred from exporting key products like steel and pig iron to the bloc.
Sales of oil and gas — vital to Russia — have been sharply limited, too. The European Union laid out a plan this month to end Russian gas imports by 2027.
These efforts have been part of an international push. Major world powers, including in Europe, have agreed to prevent Russia from selling oil into global markets for more than $60 per barrel. The hope is to keep markets supplied with enough fuel to avert shortages and price spikes while curbing Russian revenues.
Now, Ms. von der Leyen has suggested the European Union could push to lower that price cap as part of the next set of sanctions.
Yet there are big questions about efficacy.
The sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia have inflicted pain — but only up to a point.
Russia's economy contracted sharply in 2022, but has rebounded, and analysts expect growth continue slowly this year. One reason is heavy military spending.
Another is that Russia has turned to new markets. Customs data suggests that its commerce with China has reached a record high.
Russian companies have also evaded oil and gas sanctions by investing in the shadow fleet. Estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics late last year suggested that about 70 percent of Russia's seaborne oil exports traveled on these vessels.
But sanctions have had genuine, lasting consequences. Russia's revenues from fossil fuel exports have dropped sharply, trackers suggest. Inflation has risen amid product and labor shortages, prodding the central bank to push interest rates much higher.
'Russia's dependence on military spending, low-tech exports and high inflation may lead to economic stagnation,' Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a think tank, wrote in an analysis this year.
The European Union is especially important for Russia: Before the war, it was a major trading partner, and it has pulled back sharply. U.S. trade mattered less; only 0.4 percent of America's exports in 2021 went to Russia.
The next set of sanctions could intensify the damage.
The next European sanctions could future-proof efforts to cut off Russian gas supplies. The pipelines they would target, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, are not operational: One was blown up and the second never went into use. But blocking business with them could prevent investments and future contracts.
'The idea is to dissuade any interest, and notably interest from investors,' Paula Pinho, chief spokesperson for the European Commission, said last week.
That could scupper the idea that Europe might return to Russian energy as part of a peace deal. Russia has spoken of reviving Nord Stream in its discussions with the Trump administration, according to its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.
Brussels seems committed to choking off Russian fuel.
A lower oil price cap — which would require support from the Group of 7 industrialized nations, including non-E.U. states — could further dent Russian revenues.
'We are ready to do more to bring President Putin to the negotiation table,' Ms. Von der Leyen said last week. 'This war has to end.'