March Madness bubble watch tracker: Final look at who's in, out of 2025 NCAA bracket

USA Today

16-03-2025

March Madness bubble watch tracker: Final look at who's in, out of 2025 NCAA bracket
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By the end of the day Sunday, a 68-team bracket will be revealed and the madness of March will officially be underway.
Until then, the dreams of a coveted spot in the marquee event in men's college basketball continue to live on for several teams.
For weeks and even months, the NCAA Tournament bubble has been a source of constant discussion, with various programs' postseason fates debated. What can feel overwhelming at times — with heated conversations about NET rankings, strength of schedule and Quad One wins — boils down to a couple of relatively simple questions: Who should get into the Big Dance? And what teams should be left out?
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Over the past week, mid- and low-major teams from across the country have secured spots into the field by winning their conference tournaments. By winning or losing critical games, teams from the sport's power conferences have added some clarity to their NCAA Tournament outlook, with some taking important steps to crashing the party while others have seen their flickering postseason hopes fade, if not disappear entirely.
Where do some of college basketball's various NCAA Tournament hopefuls sit in the hours leading up to Selection Sunday? Who's a lock to make the field? Who's likely in? And who is sweating out Sunday night's bracket reveal?
Here's an updated and final look at the NCAA Tournament bubble:
NCAA bubble watch tracker
Tracker based on games through Saturday, March 15
NCAA Tournament automatic bids
The following teams have already secured automatic berths to the NCAA Tournament by virtue of winning their respective conference tournaments:
Bryant (America East)
Duke (ACC)
Lipscomb (ASUN)
Houston (Big 12)
St. John's (Big East)
Montana (Big Sky)
High Point (Big South)
UC San Diego (Big West)
UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Liberty (Conference USA)
Robert Morris (Horizon)
Mount St. Mary's (MAAC)
Akron (MAC)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
Drake (Missouri Valley)
Colorado State (Mountain West)
Saint Francis (Northeast)
SIU Edwardsville (Ohio Valley)
American (Patriot)
Wofford (Southern)
McNeese (Southland)
Alabama State (SWAC)
Omaha (Summit)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Gonzaga (West Coast)
Grand Canyon (WAC)
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NCAA Tournament locks
This category does not include teams that have already notched automatic bids.
ACC (2) : Louisville and Clemson
: Louisville and Clemson Big Ten (8) : Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Oregon, UCLA and Illinois
: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Oregon, UCLA and Illinois Big 12 (5) : Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas and BYU
: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas and BYU Big East (3) : Marquette, Creighton and UConn
: Marquette, Creighton and UConn SEC (9) : Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri and Ole Miss
: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri and Ole Miss Other (2): Saint Mary's and New Mexico
Every team under this umbrella has done enough to this point to make the NCAA Tournament, with many squads having been in this position for weeks.
The SEC's nine locks put the league in position to set a record for the most NCAA Tournament teams from a single conference in a single year, which would break the Big East's 11 teams from 2011.
NCAA Tournament likely in
ACC : None
: None Big Ten : None
: None Big 12 (1) : West Virginia
: West Virginia Big East: None
None SEC (3) : Georgia, Arkansas and Oklahoma
: Georgia, Arkansas and Oklahoma Others (2): VCU and Utah State
An injury-plagued West Virginia team has been a presumptive NCAA Tournament team for weeks in its first season under coach Darian DeVries, but the Mountaineers made their postseason outlook unnecessarily murky by losing their first game of the Big 12 Tournament to last-place Colorado. Still, they've likely done enough to hear their name called.
The trio of SEC teams — Georgia, Arkansas and Oklahoma — had been on the bubble or out of the tournament picture as recently as two weeks ago, but all three have notched enough wins in the best conference in the sport to feel confident about their NCAA Tournament chances.
If VCU's able to knock off George Mason in the Atlantic 10 title game, the Rams will remove any doubt about their postseason future, but if they fall, they should still get in the field. Utah State lost to Colorado State in the Mountain West semifinals Friday, but is a top-40 team in the NET rankings.
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
ACC (1) : North Carolina
: North Carolina Big Ten (2): Ohio State and Indiana
Ohio State and Indiana Big 12 : None
: None Big East (1) : Xavier
: Xavier SEC (2) : Vanderbilt and Texas
: Vanderbilt and Texas Others (3): San Diego State, Boise State, UC Irvine
Even facing a Duke team without Cooper Flagg, North Carolina was unable to beat the Blue Devils in the ACC semifinals on Friday, dropping its record to a ghastly 1-12 in Quad One games this season. Hubert Davis' team remains very much a toss-up to make the tournament.
For a fleeting few days, Indiana seemed like it had worked its way into the tournament, but the Hoosiers' loss to Oregon in their opening game of the Big Ten Tournament thrust them right back into being one of the most-debated teams on the bubble. Ohio State's late-season slide, with a 4-7 record in their past 11 games, has potentially knocked it out of the tournament, with a 17-15 overall record.
Xavier, left for dead in early February, won its final seven regular-season games, but it has a lack of marquee victories, with a loss to Marquette in its Big East Tournament opener dropping it to 1-9 in Quad One games.
Perhaps no team heads into Selection Sunday with more uncertainty than Texas. The Longhorns have had an up-and-down 2024-25 season, starting 11-2 before embarking on a disappointing 6-12 run through SEC play. Wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament, however, revived their at-large candidacy. Vanderbilt's loss to Texas knocked the Commodores from the 'likely in' ranks.
After an 18-6 start, San Diego State has gone 3-3, a rut that has placed it squarely on the bubble. Boise State fell to Colorado State in the Mountain West championship game, depriving it of an automatic bid and making its Selection Sunday experience much more anxiety-inducing. UC Irvine hung tough with UC San Diego, owners of the longest winning streak in the sport, in the Big West championship game after coming into the day No. 60 in the NET.
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When does March Madness begin?
Men's NCAA Tournament start date: Tuesday, March 18 (First Four)
For all the pageantry and intrigue that Selection Sunday brings, the NCAA Tournament doesn't officially begin until Tuesday, March 18 with the First Four, a set of four games in Dayton, Ohio that features the four final at-large teams and the four lowest-rated No. 16 seeds.
Here's the full schedule for the 2025 NCAA Tournament: