Consumer confidence in Louisville bucks trend

Business Journals

22-04-2025

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Here we dig into how Louisville fared in the inaugural Metropolitan Consumer Sentiment Index, an exclusive quarterly measure of consumer confidence in major metro areas.
Story Highlights Louisville's consumer confidence rose to 101.1, bucking national trend.
New Metropolitan Consumer Sentiment Index tracks 46 major U.S. metros.
Sun Belt markets dominated top index scores in first quarter.
Consumer confidence in the Louisville metro ticked up in the first quarter this year, bucking a national trend.
That's according to the inaugural Metropolitan Consumer Sentiment Index, a new quarterly data set that will offer exclusive visibility into consumer confidence in Louisville and 45 other major U.S. metro areas.
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American City Business Journals, parent company of Louisville Business First, is partnering with global decision intelligence company Morning Consult on the MCSI.
Morning Consult's survey engine conducts more than 5,000 daily interviews nationwide and uses a stratified sampling model to ensure representation across key demographics within each metropolitan statistical area. That data will power the new index.
Each metro is assigned a score in the index based on responses to Morning Consult's surveys. There are five questions for assessing consumers' perceptions of their current and future personal finances, 12-month and five-year expectations for business conditions, and current buying conditions for major household purchases. Scores above 100 indicate positive consumer sentiments.
For the Louisville/Jefferson County MSA, the index gives a score of 101.1 at the end of the first quarter. That's up from 98.6 on Dec. 31 and from 87.4 at this time last year.
By comparison, the national score as of March 31 was 96 — down from 101.2 at the start of the year.
However, when digging into local responses to the survey, the picture is more complicated. More than 40% said they expect periods of widespread unemployment or depression in the next five years, with about 37% expecting continuous good times and 23% saying they don't know or don't have an opinion. In the nearer term, 33% expect good times for business in the next 12 months while 30% expect bad times.
Nationally, Sun Belt markets dominated the top of the index.
Metros with the highest MCSI scores in the first quarter were: Birmingham, Alabama (108.8); Houston (108.8); Atlanta (108.7); Miami (108.6); and Nashville, Tennessee (108.3).
At the other end of the spectrum, these metros had the lowest scores for the quarter: Portland, Oregon (83.9); Providence, Rhode Island (92.3); Albuquerque, New Mexico (92.4); Boston (92.8); and Wichita, Kansas, (93.9).
The national picture
The Morning Consult data showed a paradox in consumer sentiment at the national level as well.
More people are beginning to feel their personal finances are better off now than they were 12 months ago. About 22% of respondents said in April they felt their financial position had improved over that period, up from 17.7% in October.
That would typically indicate consumers feel their finances are on an upward trajectory, but there's also a growing sentiment among the surveyed group that they will be worse off, not better, in 12 months. Just under 22% of respondents expressed that sentiment in April, up from 15.8% at the start of the fourth quarter.
'That's a really odd disconnect — generally, they're positively correlated with each other,' said John Leer, chief economist with Morning Consult. 'But it captures what's going on right now.'
Inflation was low in the first quarter, and the job market in 2025 has so far proved resilient. But at the same time, consumers are awash with uncertainty around economic policy — tariffs in particular — emanating from Washington, D.C.
'There's no world out there where that disconnect can continue indefinitely,' Leer said. 'We'll have to monitor it to see which vision of this story wins out.'
Over a longer-term horizon, the expectation that the economy is getting worse becomes more stark.
About 40% of respondents at the start of the fourth quarter said they expected periods of widespread unemployment or depression in the next five years, according to Morning Consult. By the time of the tariff turmoil of early April, that share had risen to 45.9%.
Uncertainty erases gains
Whatever happens with tariffs, the whiplash consumers have experienced in the first few months of President Trump's administration will have a lasting impact.
Consumers have learned how quickly things can change, they've seen their retirement portfolios shed value in a single day as the stock market plunged only to begin climbing the next, and uncertainty is weighing heavily on them, Leer said.
Broadly, Morning Consult's national Index of Consumer Sentiment has fallen below where it sat in November, when Trump was elected, erasing an increase that followed the election.
The five-day moving average of Morning Consult's Index of Consumer Sentiment reached 98.8 the week of Nov. 4. It peaked at 103.3 on Jan. 20 — the date of Trump's inauguration and the highest it's been since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic — but has since plunged to 94.2.
Broad economic uncertainty also has had an effect beyond sentiment. John Scannapieco, partner at law firm Womble Bond Dickinson, said he has had international clients who were planning direct investment in the U.S. step back from those plans. He shared those insights during an April 10 panel by The Business Journals on tactics for business owners to navigate tariffs.
'They've paused over not just the tariffs, but also general policy instability. They're really concerned about that,' Scannapieco said. 'It's been one project out of the Middle East and two out of Asia that have put the brakes on.'