Analysis reveals Cambodia as primary escalator in Thai border conflict
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst examined data from February to July, identifying 33 Cambodian escalatory events versus 14 Thai actions. His timeline, based on observable military developments, shows Cambodia systematically fortified border positions months before clashes that killed 12 people on Thursday.
Mr Ruser clarified that the identification of military equipment and units moving towards the Cambodian border came from official situation reports, not from satellite imagery.
Early fortification evidence
Satellite imagery detected the first Cambodian tactical improvements between Feb 23 and 28, when troops cleared and upgraded a frontline road at Sam Yaek Lao junction in Chong Bok. This marked the beginning of sustained military preparations visible from space.
By mid-March, imagery showed Cambodian forces constructing access roads to the strategic Phnom Prasitthi hilltop, directly opposite Thai positions. Between March 18 and 23, satellite data revealed heavy fortification of this strategic base.
Further fortified positions appeared on satellite imagery throughout March, including a substantial outpost at Hill-641 within 300 metres of the border by March 25. Aerial photography later confirmed the extensive nature of these fortifications.
Escalating military deployment
Following a May 28 firefight that killed a Cambodian warrant officer, satellite tracking detected massive troop movements. Within 24 hours, imagery showed Cambodia deploying about 800 to 1,000 troops, including elite forces, rocket artillery and armoured units, to border areas.
By May 30, satellite data confirmed deployment of approximately 12 SH-1 155mm self-propelled artillery vehicles from Preah Vihear command to frontline positions – nine to Ta Muen Thom sector, three to Chong Bok.
Satellite imagery from June 5 revealed around 30 T-55 tanks positioned near Preah Vihear temple, stationed at the intersection between the temple and Phnom Prasitthi outpost.
Landmine deployment detected
Satellite analysis identified systematic explosive device placement beginning July 1. Imagery showed Cambodian Engineering Battalion 392 planting over 120 PMN-2 landmines on Hill 570's eastern slopes, expanding to over 300 mines by July 3.
Additional satellite data detected another 100 landmines planted in the Emerald Triangle area by July 10. These weapons later caused casualties among Thai forces, with two separate incidents resulting in soldier amputations.
Weapons positioning evidence
June satellite imagery confirmed deployment of short-range air defence vehicles to Chong Bok sector on July 4. Earlier imagery from June 14 supported Thai military claims that Cambodia had positioned long-range artillery targeting the Thai town of Kantharalak.
The final escalation occurred on Thursday when widespread artillery attacks in the Ta Muen Thom temple area killed 11 Thai civilians and one soldier, with Ruser's heatmap showing concentrated Cambodian military activity throughout the day.
Timeline verification
Ruser's satellite-based analysis covers the complete escalation period, beginning with the Feb 13 temple incident through the July 24 clashes. The imagery evidence supports his assessment that Cambodia conducted systematic military preparations whilst diplomatic efforts proceeded.
Key satellite-verified developments include road construction, hilltop fortifications, artillery positioning, tank deployments, and explosive device placement – all observable through overhead imagery analysis.
The satellite expert, whose work on conflict zones including Ukraine and Myanmar has gained international media recognition, concluded that observable military evidence clearly shows Cambodia as the primary escalator in the border dispute.
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