New anti-Paetongtarn group draws scrutiny
Its future remains uncertain following a large protest at Bangkok's Victory Monument on Saturday, which exceeded expectations in turnout.
The peaceful demonstration demanded Ms Paetongtarn's resignation amid growing dissatisfaction with her leadership, prompting speculation about whether further protests will follow.
The rally took place amid rising political tensions, with the ruling coalition facing internal rifts and a decline in public confidence.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political and security analyst, said the protest was notable for uniting figures from former rival groups, including red shirts, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), aka yellow shirts, and the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), as well as academics and some senators.
"It was the largest such convergence in years," he said, particularly surprising given the red shirts' traditional alignment with the ruling party.
However, Mr Panitan noted the protest's unity was superficial, as only a few prominent figures from each group took part, and ideological divisions remained.
He estimated around 10,000 attendees, a significant number given the lack of political party backing. Opposition parties have so far kept their distance.
Mr Panitan stressed the importance of monitoring unaffiliated citizens and online platforms, which have played a major role in spreading the protest's message. He also pointed to the potential influence of upcoming judicial rulings on the PM's status, expected after July 1, in shaping public sentiment.
The political and security analyst advised Ms Paetongtarn to engage more actively with undecided citizens rather than relying on vague affirmations of protest rights.
"Acknowledging the right to protest isn't a strategy. It doesn't address the causes of dissatisfaction," Mr Panitan said.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, said the rally's scale surprised the government, police, and ruling Pheu Thai Party. Authorities had expected fewer than 3,000 attendees.
He attributed the protest's momentum to widespread discontent over the cabinet formation process, legal double standards, especially Thaksin Shinawatra's treatment while detained, and a lack of transparency in public institutions. The audio clip of a conversation between Ms Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, as well as the border dispute and illegal casinos, added to the outrage.
Mr Olarn criticised some of the protest's main stands for appearing to seek personal political redemption, mistaking the crowd's presence as support for them.
He pointed to PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul's on-stage remarks suggesting a coup as especially damaging.
"Such rhetoric risks alienating the crowd and discrediting the protest," he warned, adding that many participants are wary of any move that could justify military intervention.
Mr Sondhi's comments, Mr Olarn argued, created a vulnerability the government could exploit.
By invoking the possibility of a coup, Mr Sondhi inadvertently positioned Pheu Thai as a defender of constitutional governance. Even groups critical of the government may back it temporarily to prevent another military takeover.
"It was a strategic error," Mr Olarn concluded.
Another legal scholar, Komsan Pohkong, emphasised that the demonstration reflected informed civic engagement.
"This wasn't mob rule. These participants were concerned, largely middle-class citizens expressing political dissatisfaction in an organised way."
He warned against dismissing their concerns, particularly around national sovereignty.
"People may tolerate poor governance, but not perceived concessions on sovereignty."
Mr Komsan said the rally's scale resembles early stages of past movements, like the PDRC and 2010 red-shirt protests, suggesting the potential for further escalation.
"If ignored, this could become a much larger movement."
He also noted the lingering controversy over the Shinawatra family's influence.
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However, the joint press briefing by the Thai military and Foreign Ministry during a visit by military attachés to the conflict zone on Friday marked one of the most coherent and assertive efforts to communicate the facts on the ground. One of the key lessons from this border conflict is the critical importance of proactive diplomacy and strategic communication with the international community. This responsibility lies squarely with the government, national leadership, and the Foreign Ministry. Yet, Cambodia has consistently outpaced Thailand in projecting its narrative, winning sympathy abroad, even as facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Evidence clearly shows that c ivilian areas, including schools, hospitals, and entire communities, have suffered indiscriminate attacks by Cambodian forces and Thailand did not open fires. Even after a ceasefire was agreed, Cambodia reportedly violated the terms with continued shelling. Still, Thailand has failed to turn these facts into international awareness and support. Comments by Sean O'Neill, the nominee for U.S. ambassador to Thailand, underscored the perception gap Thailand faces internationally. During his Senate confirmation hearing, O'Neill criticised the border conflict as harmful and counterproductive, saying it neither benefits the Thai people nor strengthens the US-Thailand alliance, but instead results in unnecessary loss and hardship. That message did not reflect an understanding of Thailand's defensive position or the complexities of the situation. Similarly, statements from China have not helped improve Thailand's standing in the eyes of the global community. The underlying problem is Thailand's passive diplomatic posture. The government has spent each day fending off Cambodian accusations, many of which are distorted or false, without clearly asserting Thailand's own narrative. The leadership has remained largely absent from global discourse. In the resulting vacuum, Thai netizens and social media influencers have stepped in to share the truth with the world. Domestically, the government faces a crisis of confidence. A recent leak of an audio clip featuring Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen has deepened public mistrust. A poll conducted by Rangsit University shows that over 60% of Thais have no confidence in the prime minister's ability to manage the Thai-Cambodian conflict, while only 1% expressed strong confidence. Similarly, a survey by the Institute of Future Studies for Development found that 85.59% of respondents had little or no trust in the current government. In contrast, a poll by the Asia Vision Institute in Phnom Penh found that 93.6% of Cambodians were satisfied with their government's handling of the situation. The Friday briefing to foreign military attachés was a rare moment when Thailand presented its side with clarity and conviction. It was direct, well-documented, and addressed Cambodia's allegations point by point. Unfortunately, it came late. The global narrative had already taken shape, influenced by early and sustained Cambodian messaging. Thailand must learn from this experience. In a world where communication moves at the speed of social media and perception often overrides fact, even the truth needs a strategy. No matter how justified Thailand's actions may be, if the world remains unaware, Thailand will continue to lose ground in international diplomacy, especially in conflicts with smaller, seemingly less powerful nations like Cambodia. A new era of proactive, strategic diplomacy must begin now.
