False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season
Happy hurricane season!
Clearly, many of you left several gallons of distilled water and a 96-pack of Kirkland Signature AAA batteries out in a windowless interior room on Hurricane Season Eve to appease the Cyclone Imp, because the 2025 hurricane season is off to an auspicious start.
Call it Christmas in June: Internet rumors to the contrary, not a tropical depression will be stirring in the Gulf and Caribbean for another week or more.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The minimal activity in the Tropics today is actually beneficial. On the fifth day of hurricane season, the typical gift is disorganized moisture from the south (or for those observing the traditional bird-based gift calendar, five awkward teenage geese), and that's just what we are seeing out there now.
An upper-level low over the eastern Gulf has been interacting with an old, stalled-out frontal boundary this week, enhancing rainfall over the Florida peninsula. As of Wednesday afternoon, rainfall totals have been two to four inches in South Florida and half an inch to an inch in Central Florida.
With much of the southern half of the state in moderate to extreme drought, this precipitation is a helpful kick-start to the wet season.
For the next day or two, Florida will continue to be wreathed in above-normal thunderstorm coverage as the old front drifts north. Rain chances diminish on Thursday in South Florida and Friday in North Florida as a weak area of low pressure develops in the Carolinas.
If the low were to form over water, it would have a fighting chance of tropical or subtropical development, but given the trend towards more inland formation, don't expect a named or numbered system out of this one.
The coastal Carolinas will dry out by late Friday as the low scoots northeast and out-to-sea. Otherwise, the rest of the Tropical Atlantic is devoid of thunderstorm activity, nestled beneath a thick, festive layer of African dust.
In the first half of June, the Ghosts of Hurricane Seasons Past tell us that the most common locations for tropical storm development are the northwestern Caribbean and eastern Gulf, with something forming between June 1-15 once every three years or so.
This year, upper-level winds are likely to remain more favorable for tropical development on the Eastern Pacific side of Central America rather in the Gulf or Caribbean, for at least the next 10 days.
Thus, none of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month.
Except the GFS. The American model is adamant that a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward.
While some runs have shown an alarmingly strong hurricane, there is no chance of that happening for numerous reasons. First, only three June major hurricanes have occurred in the last 125 years, and projections of very rare outcomes should be viewed skeptically. Second, this purported hurricane hangs out in model La-La Land around two weeks away, never getting closer to fruition.
Finally, the GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year.
All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded. To make a broader point, anybody that presents GFS fantasy hurricanes as a realistic possibility is not a reputable source of weather information.
Hurricane season has gotten too commercial, and there are many bad actors out there trying to profit from scaring people — if something is free, the product is you. My philosophy is that reality is plenty frightening, which is why I don't talk about extreme, unrealistic scenarios like what the GFS has been showing.
Bottom line, don't be naughty and share the day 15 GFS on social media, or the Cyclone Imp will target your house with an eyewall mesovortex.
Like the holidays, hurricane season tends to surface the same tired debates: Should Category 6 be added to the Saffir-Simpson Scale? Is Die Hard a hurricane season movie? Should there be a Die Hard 6?
Beyond the noise, all I want for hurricane season is you to be prepared to react when the serious threats inevitably roll in. That means not sweating the small stuff, and a big part of my job is to help you avoid doing just that.
Christmas may last but twelve days, but hurricane season is a hefty 183: that means whether engaging in bird gifting or assessing hurricane risks, you need to pace yourself or you'll have a real mess on your hands.
So trim your trees, and keep watching the skies.
Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. For more information, visit weathertiger.com or get in touch at ryan@weathertiger.com.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida hurricane season forecast: Rain, Saharan dust, false alarms
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
False alarms, beneficial rain and a dusty start to Florida storm season
Happy hurricane season! Clearly, many of you left several gallons of distilled water and a 96-pack of Kirkland Signature AAA batteries out in a windowless interior room on Hurricane Season Eve to appease the Cyclone Imp, because the 2025 hurricane season is off to an auspicious start. Call it Christmas in June: Internet rumors to the contrary, not a tropical depression will be stirring in the Gulf and Caribbean for another week or more. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The minimal activity in the Tropics today is actually beneficial. On the fifth day of hurricane season, the typical gift is disorganized moisture from the south (or for those observing the traditional bird-based gift calendar, five awkward teenage geese), and that's just what we are seeing out there now. An upper-level low over the eastern Gulf has been interacting with an old, stalled-out frontal boundary this week, enhancing rainfall over the Florida peninsula. As of Wednesday afternoon, rainfall totals have been two to four inches in South Florida and half an inch to an inch in Central Florida. With much of the southern half of the state in moderate to extreme drought, this precipitation is a helpful kick-start to the wet season. For the next day or two, Florida will continue to be wreathed in above-normal thunderstorm coverage as the old front drifts north. Rain chances diminish on Thursday in South Florida and Friday in North Florida as a weak area of low pressure develops in the Carolinas. If the low were to form over water, it would have a fighting chance of tropical or subtropical development, but given the trend towards more inland formation, don't expect a named or numbered system out of this one. The coastal Carolinas will dry out by late Friday as the low scoots northeast and out-to-sea. Otherwise, the rest of the Tropical Atlantic is devoid of thunderstorm activity, nestled beneath a thick, festive layer of African dust. In the first half of June, the Ghosts of Hurricane Seasons Past tell us that the most common locations for tropical storm development are the northwestern Caribbean and eastern Gulf, with something forming between June 1-15 once every three years or so. This year, upper-level winds are likely to remain more favorable for tropical development on the Eastern Pacific side of Central America rather in the Gulf or Caribbean, for at least the next 10 days. Thus, none of the reputable forecast models are showing a realistic chance of anything tropical forming on the Atlantic side of Central America through mid-month. Except the GFS. The American model is adamant that a Caribbean tropical storm will spin up in 10 to 12 days, then move generally northward. While some runs have shown an alarmingly strong hurricane, there is no chance of that happening for numerous reasons. First, only three June major hurricanes have occurred in the last 125 years, and projections of very rare outcomes should be viewed skeptically. Second, this purported hurricane hangs out in model La-La Land around two weeks away, never getting closer to fruition. Finally, the GFS has a persistent and well-known bias for incorrectly predicting development in the Caribbean at this specific time of year. All told, while something could eventually spin up in two or three weeks, the GFS' frequent false alarms should be disregarded. To make a broader point, anybody that presents GFS fantasy hurricanes as a realistic possibility is not a reputable source of weather information. Hurricane season has gotten too commercial, and there are many bad actors out there trying to profit from scaring people — if something is free, the product is you. My philosophy is that reality is plenty frightening, which is why I don't talk about extreme, unrealistic scenarios like what the GFS has been showing. Bottom line, don't be naughty and share the day 15 GFS on social media, or the Cyclone Imp will target your house with an eyewall mesovortex. Like the holidays, hurricane season tends to surface the same tired debates: Should Category 6 be added to the Saffir-Simpson Scale? Is Die Hard a hurricane season movie? Should there be a Die Hard 6? Beyond the noise, all I want for hurricane season is you to be prepared to react when the serious threats inevitably roll in. That means not sweating the small stuff, and a big part of my job is to help you avoid doing just that. Christmas may last but twelve days, but hurricane season is a hefty 183: that means whether engaging in bird gifting or assessing hurricane risks, you need to pace yourself or you'll have a real mess on your hands. So trim your trees, and keep watching the skies. Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. For more information, visit or get in touch at ryan@ This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida hurricane season forecast: Rain, Saharan dust, false alarms
New York Post
2 days ago
- New York Post
Florida residents warned ‘dirty rain' could fall as large Saharan dust plume is making its way to area
MIAMI – A large wave of Saharan dust making its way across the Atlantic Basin is forecast to arrive in the U.S. later this week, impacting the Southeast with hazy skies and 'dirty rain.' NOAA estimates that more than 180 million tons of dust leave the African continent every year, and the extremely dry air reduces thunderstorm activity and tropical cyclone formation. Saharan dust has taken over nearly the entire Atlantic Basin, according to NOAA satellites. One of the larger waves of concentrated dust approached the Caribbean on Monday. By Thursday, this thick plume is forecast to enter the Gulf of America, over the Florida Keys and cover much of the Sunshine State. Another round of dust will move in along the northern Gulf Coast by Friday and head into the Southeast. According to the FOX Forecast Center, the primary impacts will be a hazy sky and reduced visibility. Dust has also been known to reduce air quality, but that is not expected this week. NOAA satellites are tracking the Saharan Dust Layer as it wafts across the Atlantic Basin. The plume is forecast to arrive in Florida, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Thursday with effects lasting into the weekend. FOX Weather Silhouetted people on Fort Myers Beach at sunset under a large rain cloud. tunedin – However, there is also a positive aspect to dust plumes. As the larger dust particles scatter visible light, longer wavelengths like red, orange and pink will make for vibrant sunrises and sunsets. The Southeast will likely see these until the dust is swept north and disperses. With rain forecast across the Gulf Coast this weekend, the FOX Forecast Center is also tracking how the dust interacts with the moisture. If the timing lines up, 'dirty rain' could include dust particles leaving a layer of dust on surfaces once the rain dries.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
Daily Weather Update from FOX Weather: Potential tropical trouble brews as heavy rain lashes Southeast coast
Welcome to the Daily Weather Update from FOX Weather. It's Wednesday, June 4, 2025. Start your day with everything you need to know about today's weather. You can also get a quick briefing of national, regional and local weather whenever you like with the FOX Weather Update podcast. A low-pressure system is brewing off the Southeast coast, threatening heavy rain and flash flooding in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on the system for a low chance of tropical development. This system, which already dumped over 6 inches of rain on Miami earlier this week, is expected to track northward along the southeastern U.s. coastline starting Wednesday afternoon. The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring its path, noting that its proximity to land will influence the likelihood of it developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Strong to severe thunderstorms swept through central Kansas on Tuesday, triggering life-threatening flooding in and around eastern Wichita. The National Weather Service office that covers the Wichita area issued a Flash Flood Emergency – the highest level of flood alert – for more than 200,000 residents after rainfall rates reached between 1-3 inches per hour. Within the Flash Flood Emergency zone, storm totals reached nearly 7 inches of rainfall, which overwhelmed drainage systems and transformed roadways into rivers. The heaviest rainfall occurred east of Interstate 135, where multiple water rescues were reported throughout the afternoon. A large wave of Saharan dust making its way across the Atlantic Basin is forecast to arrive in the U.S. later this week, impacting the Southeast with hazy skies and "dirty rain." Noaa estimates that more than 180 million tons of dust leave the African continent every year, and the extremely dry air reduces thunderstorm activity and tropical cyclone formation. Saharan dust has taken over nearly the entire Atlantic Basin, according to NOAA satellites. One of the larger waves of concentrated dust approached the Caribbean on Monday. By Thursday, this thick plume is forecast to enter the Gulf of America, over the Florida Keys and cover much of the Sunshine State. Another round of dust will move in along the northern Gulf Coast by Friday and head into the Southeast. Sharks aren't the only thing beachgoers need to be on the lookout for in Florida this summer. A black bear was spotted taking a dip in the Gulf waters off Naples. A mother and son saw the unexpected creature emerging from the sea last Friday. Video taken by Kylie Nelson shows the bear swimming up to the beach and then taking a stroll. "Mom, run!" Nelson's son said as the bear approached the shoreline. Here are a few more stories you might find interesting. Record-breaking sargassum invasion in Atlantic, Caribbean threatens to foul beach resorts Air quality craters in Minneapolis as Canadian wildfire smoke blankets large swath of US Runaway zebra still on the loose after shutting down Tennessee interstate Need more weather? Check your local forecast plus 3D radar in the FOX Weather app. You can also watch FOX Weather wherever you go using the FOX Weather app, at or on your favorite streaming service. It's easy to share your weather photos and videos with us. Email them to weather@ or add the hashtag #FOXWeather to your post on your favorite social media article source: Daily Weather Update from FOX Weather: Potential tropical trouble brews as heavy rain lashes Southeast coast
