The unseen health impact of climate on India's superpower aspirations

Time of India

23-04-2025

Sanjay Rajagopalan, MD, MBA, is a US-based physician-scientist who has been engaged in research on the health impacts of pollution and climate change for over two decades. He is also actively involved in health policy related to environmental pollution and has a recent track record of publications in both environmental health and climate change. Dr Arnab Ghosh, a health economist from Cornell University, is an expert in climate change and its intersection with health and economic policy. LESS ... MORE
As India positions itself as a global superpower, it must address a critical blind spot: the health impacts of climate change and their far-reaching economic consequences. Current assessments of India's economic trajectory often focus on infrastructure, innovation, and geopolitical strategy, while overlooking the growing burden of climate-related health outcomes on India's greatest asset: its human capital. This obvious omission underestimates the financial impact of the direct and indirect health-related effects of climate change and threatens India's legitimate progression to superpower status.
India faces a unique confluence of climate health vulnerabilities: rapid urbanization, high population density, significant climate variability and vulnerable urban provisioning systems. These factors may exponentially increase climate-related health impacts, such as pollution-related chronic diseases, heat stress, vector-borne illnesses, and waterborne infections. The financial toll of these health impact is far from trivial. According to one estimate from the Lancet Countdown 2022, India lost an estimated 160 billion hours of labor due to heat exposure in 2021, translating to a productivity loss of approximately 5.4% of GDP. The economic impact of health-related effects of air pollution alone are staggering. A study published in Nature Communications (2022) estimated that air pollution contributes to 1.67 million deaths annually in India and costs the economy $36 billion in healthcare expenses and lost labor. Yet, these figures likely underestimates the overall impact now and into the future as environmental health impacts cascade through the economy, reducing workforce efficiency, increasing public health expenditures, and impacting the health and well-being of younger, economically productive people.
Rising temperatures and heatwaves directly affect outdoor labor, particularly in agriculture and construction, which together employ over 50% of India's workforce. Projections from the International Labor Organization (ILO) suggest that India could lose up to 34 million full-time jobs annually by 2030 due to heat stress. The World Bank's 2023 report, Striking Balance, highlighted that pollution costs India 2% of GDP annually in health-related productivity losses. Increasingly frequent extreme weather events such as floods, exacerbate waterborne diseases like diarrhea, cholera, and typhoid as well as disrupting access to health care for many with acute health conditions. The Global Burden of Disease Study estimated that waterborne diseases cost India approximately $600 million annually in lost productivity and treatment costs. Managing vector-borne diseases costs the healthcare system over $1 billion annually, a figure expected to rise with climate change according to data from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Housing displacement due to climate events, and associated social stressors compound mental health challenges. The indirect costs of untreated mental health conditions, including reduced productivity and higher care burdens, are estimated to exceed $90 billion annually, according to a recent report from the National Mental Health Survey (2022).
These health challenges are compounded by the broader economic impacts of climate volatility. During the recent COP29 summit, India's delegation highlighted the inadequacy of global climate funding, emphasizing the combustible mix of demographic vulnerability and environmental stress facing the nation. While India is projected to remain the world's fastest-growing large economy, with the World Bank increasing its growth forecast to 7% for the fiscal year, these projections often fail to account for climate-related disruptions. Several leading Indian companies have already begun to account for climate related financial impacts. Zomato attributed lower than expected Q1 earnings to heat stress, while Larsen & Toubro adjusted working hours, to cope with extreme temperatures. These shifts are a harbinger of broader corporate shifts in incorporating climate related cost, into the operational costs of doing business – all linked to the expected climate-related impacts on health.
The Asian Development Bank warned in October 2023 that climate change could reduce India's GDP by as much as 25% by 2070. This projection is grounded in the reality that a third of India's GDP is linked to nature-related sectors, including agriculture and water resources. Droughts and profound shifts in soil microbial and nutritional content are increasingly threatening crop yields; while extreme water table depletion are leading to water scarcity in many cities. A massive increase in electricity demand owing to a burgeoning middles class utilizing air conditioners are also straining the electricity grid, creating a cascading effect on power outages, extreme heat islands in India's cities and compounding diminished industrial and household productivity.
Accurate assessment of climate-related health impacts and their incorporation into the economic analysis must be integral to planning. Policymakers need robust frameworks to quantify direct and indirect health costs and incorporate them into macro- and microeconomic estimates, particularly over 20 to 30-year time horizons. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare should collaborate with the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change to quantify and address climate-related health impacts. Infrastructure investments should prioritize climate resilience and adaptation measures, including climate-resilient housing, urban cooling solutions, and healthcare systems equipped to manage climate emergencies. Leveraging private sector innovation for health interventions and mitigation strategies can accelerate progress while reducing public financial burdens. India should lead efforts to integrate climate-health considerations into international climate agreements, such as the G20's global sustainability initiatives.
India's pathway to superpower status is inextricably linked to the health and well-being of its population. By not addressing the economic impact of climate-related health impacts, the country risks undermining its economic growth and global competitiveness. A healthy population is the foundation of a resilient economy and acknowledging this reality will ensure that India's superpower aspirations are fulfilled.
REFERENCES
1. Watts N, et al. "The 2022 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change."
The Lancet, 2022.
2. Chakraborty T, et al. "India's Burden of Climate Change: Labor Loss and Economic
Productivity." Nature Communications, 2022.
3. World Bank. "Striking Balance: Air Pollution in India." 2023.
4. Global Burden of Disease Study (India-Specific Estimates), 2022.
5. ICMR. "Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in India," 2023.
6. National Mental Health Survey. "Economic Costs of Mental Health in India," 2022.
7. Financial Times Editorial. "The Overlooked Role of Climate in India's Economic Growth,"
November 2023.
8. Asian Development Bank. "Climate Change and its Economic Impacts in South Asia," 2023.
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Views expressed above are the author's own.