What Nestlé India's Sensex exit means
Nestlé India is moving out of Sensex. Can it stay in investors' mind? Nestlé India has remained flat for the last one year. It has even underperformed the Nifty FMCG Index in the last five years. The shifting of the stock from Sensex 30 to Sensex Next 30 does capture some of the woes faced by the company and the sector. And an overall revival seems like a long-term story. ONGC squandered its future once. Can it be different this time? When India
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Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Week Ahead: Inflation data, US tariffs, FII flow, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market
The Indian stock market consolidated for the third consecutive week, but also snapped a two-week losing streak, driven by favourable domestic cues, instilling fresh confidence among D-Street investors. This, despite the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations. Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the second week of June. India's retail inflation, global tariff announcements, foreign capital flow, macroeconomic data, and global market cues will dictate the market direction. Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 were range-bound for most of the week, but surged on Friday to settle near the week's high. Supportive domestic developments helped limit the downside, with the highlight being the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary policy, which took the market by surprise. The RBI cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.50 per cent—double the market expectation—and reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points to three per cent, the lowest level since April 2021, further boosting market sentiment. This liquidity boost is expected to lower the cost of funding for banks and spur credit growth, powering rate-sensitive stocks. On Friday, the Nifty 50 logged its best day in three weeks and rose 252 points, reclaiming the psychologically crucial 25,000-mark after investors rallied behind the RBI's bumper policy measures. Sensex added 738 points to end at 82,189, while both indices gained one per cent for the week. The Bank Nifty outperformed, rising 1.5 per cent to settle at 56,578.40 after hitting a fresh all-time high of 56,695, extending its winning streak to four consecutive weeks. In the broader markets, both midcap and smallcap indices outperformed the benchmarks, reflecting a risk-on sentiment among investors, with gains ranging between 2.8 per cent and four per cent. In the coming week, the primary market will witness more action, with some new initial public offerings (IPO) and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and sector-specfic outcomes. Going forward, market participants will focus on key macroeconomic data for further cues. High-frequency indicators such as the consumer price index (CPI) inflation data and the index of industrial production (IIP) will be closely tracked to gauge demand trends and the central bank's next steps. Additionally, the progress of the monsoon and sowing patterns will be monitored due to their implications for rural consumption. "By front-loading easing measures, the RBI has underscored its commitment to reviving domestic growth amid global uncertainties. While such a bold approach was expected to unfold gradually, this decisive action reinforces confidence in its intent to support economic recovery while managing inflation risks," said Ajit Mishra, – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. One mainboard IPO, Oswal Pumps IPO, will open for subscription this week, while three new SME issues will also open for bidding in the next five days. Among listings, no new IPO-concluded companies are scheduled to be debut on the stock exchanges in the coming week. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading ₹ 3,565 crore in equities. However, strong domestic institutional flows offset the pressure, as domestic institutional investors (DIIs) infused ₹ 25,513 crore into the cash segment, providing solid support to the broader market. According to Ionic Wealth by domestic brokerage Angel One, FIIs hold 18.8 per cent of Indian equities, compared to 30 per cent in other emerging markets (EMs), offering 'significant room for capital infusion'. Chemicals, telecom, and financials are the sectors attracting FIIs, driven by strong structural themes like the China+1 strategy. India's unique mix of consumption-led growth, robust capex cycles, and high-return-on-equity companies makes it a strong investment case. On the global front, developments in trade negotiations and movements in US bond yields will continue to influence investor sentiment. Global uncertainties and tariff-related risks could keep markets on edge and add to market volatility. According to market analysts, profit booking was visible last week due to the ongoing global uncertainty. Mid- and small caps outperformed large caps, driven by better earnings and valuations. A mildly positive bias emerged from strong US job data and expectations of easing US-China trade tensions. "Benchmark indices attempted recovery after FIIs turned net buyers, encouraged by strong domestic economic indicators amidst a weakening dollar and US bond yields, fostering a 'buy-on-dip' strategy," said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments. "While China's rare earth restrictions pose long-term risks and investors await the inflation print in the US, the aggressive RBI rate cut, backed by cooling inflation and a steady GDP outlook, is likely to support investor confidence amidst the ongoing global uncertainties," added Nair. Shares of Adani Ports & SEZ, Asian Paints, Adani Enterprises, Ambuja Cements, Adani Total Gas, Piramal Enterprises, among several others, will trade ex-dividend next week starting from Monday, June 2. Shares of some stocks will also trade ex-bonus and ex-split. Check full list here Technically, Nifty 50 has approached the upper band of its prevailing consolidation range of 24,500–25,100. 'A decisive breakout above 25,200 would mark the beginning of a fresh uptrend, with potential to gradually move toward the 25,600–25,800 zone,' said Ajit Mishra of Religare. On the downside, the 24,400–24,600 range is expected to act as a strong support zone during any corrective phase. Bank Nifty has broken above the key 56,000 mark after trading in a tight range for over a month. Mishra now expects it to move towards 58,000, making this segment crucial for broader market direction. In case of a dip, the 55,350–56,000 range is likely to provide strong support. For the market's trading strategy, Mishra maintains a positive outlook and suggests 'buy on dips' unless Nifty 50 decisively breaks below 24,600. However, he clarified that investors should remain selective and focus on fundamentally strong stocks in sectors such as banking, auto, and real estate, which are poised to benefit from lower interest rates. Other sectors may contribute on a rotational basis. Caution is warranted in areas facing margin pressures or global headwinds, such as FMCG and IT. Traders should remain agile and well-informed, especially in light of the macroeconomic data and persistent global uncertainties. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.
Economic Times
17 hours ago
- Economic Times
RBI surprise to boost earnings, support India's market outperformance: Mayuresh Joshi
(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
Economic Times
17 hours ago
- Economic Times
June series shows positive bias for Nifty, Bank Nifty over 18-year trend: Sudeep Shah
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads So how is the market mood like? What are you reading in the market right now after the MPC outcome? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Let's talk about the banking sector. How does it look with the RBI's stance and 50 bps repo rate cut and a 100 bps CRR cut? Any banking stocks in focus after this? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Does history indicate anything about how the June series has typically performed? What's your take on the FIIs now? Does it look like they have any motivation to come back to India in full swing? What's your say on the realty sector after a sharp surge post RBI MPC outcome? And preferred stocks? Your take on Bajaj Finserv after the block deal. Stock absorbed it pretty well, and in fact, it closed over 2% higher. What do the charts say? Let's have your take on a few stocks near their all-time high- MCX, Bharti Airtel, IndiGo, SRF Any breakout stocks on your radar? Any sector you feel that is set to outperform? Markets consolidated for the third consecutive week but managed to end higher by nearly a percent, buoyed by favorable domestic cues. After remaining range-bound for most of the week, benchmark indices surged sharply on Friday and settled near the week's high, with the Nifty closing at 25,003 and the Sensex at 82, mixed global cues—such as ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations—kept investor sentiment subdued. However, supportive domestic developments helped limit the downside. The highlight of the week was the RBI's policy announcement, which took the market by surprise. The central bank implemented a sharper-than-expected 50 bps repo rate cut and a 100 bps CRR reduction, signaling a strong pro-growth stance. Notably, the policy stance was also shifted from 'accommodative' to 'neutral'—a move that came sooner than this setup in place, analyst Sudeep Shah , Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:"The best trades often come wrapped in surprise announcements and clean technical setups." That's exactly what played out this week, as the Reserve Bank of India delivered a 50-basis points rate cut — a move that not only surprised the Street but also acted as a powerful technical trigger across the market. Bank Nifty, which had been moving in a narrow consolidation band (Stage-2 Cup pattern) for over 31 sessions, broke out with conviction, backed by strong momentum. This was not surprising for us, as we had been consistently highlighting that Bank Nifty was gearing up for a breakout. Nifty, too, rebounded from the lower end of its consolidation range and is now on the verge of a decisive breakout, indicating a potential shift in market further fuel to the bullish sentiment, the volatility index India VIX ended on a negative note for the second consecutive week. This week alone, it tumbled by 9%, signaling cooling market nerves and growing risk appetite among participants. Historically, a falling VIX, combined with price and volume breakouts, reinforces the sustainability of an uptrend — precisely the kind of technical environment we're witnessing Nifty closed the week near the psychological 25000 mark. On the weekly chart, it formed a bullish candle with a noticeable lower shadow — a classic sign of buying interest at lower levels. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with all key moving average setups aligning in favor of the bulls. Most notably, the daily RSI has surged past the 60 mark and continues to rise, further affirming bullish ahead, we believe the index is well poised to test 25200, followed by 25500 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 24750–24700 is likely to act as a strong support in case of any immediate Banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has given a stage-2 cup pattern breakout on the daily scale. Further, it has formed a sizeable bullish candle on the breakout, which adds strength to the breakout. Also, it has marked the fresh all-time all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators suggest strong bullish momentum in the index. The daily RSI is quoting at 67.45, and it is in rising trajectory, which suggests strong bullish per the measured rule of cup pattern, the upside target is placed at 58700 level. While on the downside, the zone of 55700-55600 is likely to provide the cushion in case of any immediate the RBI's policy boost, several banking stocks have come into focus with strong technical setups. HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IDFC First Bank, and AU Small Finance Bank are all showing promising bullish these stocks are trading above key moving averages, with momentum indicators like RSI supporting the ongoing strength. Most of them are either approaching breakout levels or have recently broken out of consolidation zones, suggesting continued upside potential in the near seasonality, over the past 18 years, the June month has often exhibited a positive trend for Nifty. On 11 occasions, the index has concluded on a positive note with an average gain of 4.19%, while on 7 occasions, it has ended on a negative note with an average loss of 3.80%. The average return for Nifty in the June series has been 1.09%. Over the past 18 years, June has consistently shown an average volatility of 7.80 percent for the Nifty Bank Nifty has also shown a positive trend in June over the past 18 years. Out of these, it closed positively 11 times, with an average gain of 4.52%, while ending negatively 7 times, with an average loss of 5.63%. The average return for Bank Nifty in the June series has been 0.58%. However, Bank Nifty has demonstrated an average volatility of approximately 9.30 percent for the past 18 activity is currently showing mixed signals. While they were net buyers in equities during March, April, and May, they have turned net sellers so far in June. This indicates some hesitation or profit-booking amid global uncertainties or in the derivatives segment, the FII long-short ratio stands at just 20.87%, reflecting a heavy short bias. This suggests that much of the selling may already be priced in, leaving limited room for additional aggressive shorting. If the market continues its upward momentum, it could trigger short-covering by FIIs, potentially leading to fresh buying and renewed participation. So, while they may not be back in full swing yet, the setup is such that any sustained rally could act as a catalyst for a stronger FII realty sector has extended its bullish momentum, posting gains for the fourth consecutive week and sharply outperforming the frontline indices. The ratio chart of Nifty Realty vs. Nifty is at a 20-week high, clearly reflecting sustained the index is trading well above its short and long-term moving averages, all of which are sloping upward—a sign of strong trend strength. The daily RSI is in the super bullish zone and continues to rise, suggesting the momentum is intact and further upside is likely in the coming stocks, DLF, Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, Arkade Developers, and Sobha Developers are showing strong technical setups and remain the preferred picks from the stock of Bajaj Finserv has taken support near its 100-day EMA level and thereafter witnessed a smart rebound. However, despite this bounce, the stock continues to trade within a broader sideways range, and strong directional momentum is yet to emerge. The daily RSI has remained in a sideways trajectory for the past 27 trading sessions, as per RSI range shift rules, reflecting a lack of sustained trend now, a decisive breakout above the upper end of the consolidation range is needed to confirm a trend reversal and attract follow-through buying. Until then, the stock may continue to move in a range-bound manner with a slightly positive The stock has witnessed a strong bullish momentum in the last couple of trading sessions. On a daily scale, it has formed a Record Session Count candlestick pattern, which suggests stock is in an overbought zone. Hence, we believe it is likely to slid into the period of stock is in sideways stock is oscillating in the zone of 5665-5230 stock has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale. It is likely to continue its northward DLF, IDFC First Bank, HDFC Bank, Manappuram, Shriram Finance, Poonawalla Fincorp, Aditya Birla Capital, Nam-India, Bajaj Finance and Arkade Developers are looking Bank, Nifty Private Bank, and Nifty Financial Services have registered a clear consolidation breakout on the daily chart, indicating a resumption of the bullish trend. These indices are well-positioned to extend their northward journey in the coming Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal are showing strong bullish momentum. Their current chart structures reflect sustained strength, and both are likely to witness further upside in the short the other hand, Nifty Auto, Nifty CPSE, and Nifty PSE have bounced back smartly from their respective support zones. This rebound is technically encouraging and points towards the continuation of bullish momentum in the near term.
