RBI surprise to boost earnings, support India's market outperformance: Mayuresh Joshi
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Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Week Ahead: Inflation data, US tariffs, FII flow, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market
The Indian stock market consolidated for the third consecutive week, but also snapped a two-week losing streak, driven by favourable domestic cues, instilling fresh confidence among D-Street investors. This, despite the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations. Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the second week of June. India's retail inflation, global tariff announcements, foreign capital flow, macroeconomic data, and global market cues will dictate the market direction. Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 were range-bound for most of the week, but surged on Friday to settle near the week's high. Supportive domestic developments helped limit the downside, with the highlight being the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary policy, which took the market by surprise. The RBI cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.50 per cent—double the market expectation—and reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points to three per cent, the lowest level since April 2021, further boosting market sentiment. This liquidity boost is expected to lower the cost of funding for banks and spur credit growth, powering rate-sensitive stocks. On Friday, the Nifty 50 logged its best day in three weeks and rose 252 points, reclaiming the psychologically crucial 25,000-mark after investors rallied behind the RBI's bumper policy measures. Sensex added 738 points to end at 82,189, while both indices gained one per cent for the week. The Bank Nifty outperformed, rising 1.5 per cent to settle at 56,578.40 after hitting a fresh all-time high of 56,695, extending its winning streak to four consecutive weeks. In the broader markets, both midcap and smallcap indices outperformed the benchmarks, reflecting a risk-on sentiment among investors, with gains ranging between 2.8 per cent and four per cent. In the coming week, the primary market will witness more action, with some new initial public offerings (IPO) and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and sector-specfic outcomes. Going forward, market participants will focus on key macroeconomic data for further cues. High-frequency indicators such as the consumer price index (CPI) inflation data and the index of industrial production (IIP) will be closely tracked to gauge demand trends and the central bank's next steps. Additionally, the progress of the monsoon and sowing patterns will be monitored due to their implications for rural consumption. "By front-loading easing measures, the RBI has underscored its commitment to reviving domestic growth amid global uncertainties. While such a bold approach was expected to unfold gradually, this decisive action reinforces confidence in its intent to support economic recovery while managing inflation risks," said Ajit Mishra, – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. One mainboard IPO, Oswal Pumps IPO, will open for subscription this week, while three new SME issues will also open for bidding in the next five days. Among listings, no new IPO-concluded companies are scheduled to be debut on the stock exchanges in the coming week. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading ₹ 3,565 crore in equities. However, strong domestic institutional flows offset the pressure, as domestic institutional investors (DIIs) infused ₹ 25,513 crore into the cash segment, providing solid support to the broader market. According to Ionic Wealth by domestic brokerage Angel One, FIIs hold 18.8 per cent of Indian equities, compared to 30 per cent in other emerging markets (EMs), offering 'significant room for capital infusion'. Chemicals, telecom, and financials are the sectors attracting FIIs, driven by strong structural themes like the China+1 strategy. India's unique mix of consumption-led growth, robust capex cycles, and high-return-on-equity companies makes it a strong investment case. On the global front, developments in trade negotiations and movements in US bond yields will continue to influence investor sentiment. Global uncertainties and tariff-related risks could keep markets on edge and add to market volatility. According to market analysts, profit booking was visible last week due to the ongoing global uncertainty. Mid- and small caps outperformed large caps, driven by better earnings and valuations. A mildly positive bias emerged from strong US job data and expectations of easing US-China trade tensions. "Benchmark indices attempted recovery after FIIs turned net buyers, encouraged by strong domestic economic indicators amidst a weakening dollar and US bond yields, fostering a 'buy-on-dip' strategy," said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments. "While China's rare earth restrictions pose long-term risks and investors await the inflation print in the US, the aggressive RBI rate cut, backed by cooling inflation and a steady GDP outlook, is likely to support investor confidence amidst the ongoing global uncertainties," added Nair. Shares of Adani Ports & SEZ, Asian Paints, Adani Enterprises, Ambuja Cements, Adani Total Gas, Piramal Enterprises, among several others, will trade ex-dividend next week starting from Monday, June 2. Shares of some stocks will also trade ex-bonus and ex-split. Check full list here Technically, Nifty 50 has approached the upper band of its prevailing consolidation range of 24,500–25,100. 'A decisive breakout above 25,200 would mark the beginning of a fresh uptrend, with potential to gradually move toward the 25,600–25,800 zone,' said Ajit Mishra of Religare. On the downside, the 24,400–24,600 range is expected to act as a strong support zone during any corrective phase. Bank Nifty has broken above the key 56,000 mark after trading in a tight range for over a month. Mishra now expects it to move towards 58,000, making this segment crucial for broader market direction. In case of a dip, the 55,350–56,000 range is likely to provide strong support. For the market's trading strategy, Mishra maintains a positive outlook and suggests 'buy on dips' unless Nifty 50 decisively breaks below 24,600. However, he clarified that investors should remain selective and focus on fundamentally strong stocks in sectors such as banking, auto, and real estate, which are poised to benefit from lower interest rates. Other sectors may contribute on a rotational basis. Caution is warranted in areas facing margin pressures or global headwinds, such as FMCG and IT. Traders should remain agile and well-informed, especially in light of the macroeconomic data and persistent global uncertainties. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.
Economic Times
8 hours ago
- Economic Times
SC allows direct expulsion of illegals: Sarma
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Time of India
16 hours ago
- Time of India
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Nifty near breakout as resistance seen at 25,100; PSU banks, energy lead sectoral momentum
After consolidating for two weeks, the Nifty finally appeared to be flexing its muscles for a potential move higher. Over the past five sessions, the Nifty traded with an underlying positive bias and ended near the week's high point while also attempting to move past a crucial pattern of resistance. The past week saw the Index oscillating in the 527-point range, which was in line with the previous weeks. The volatility also cooled off; the India VIX came off by 9% to 14.63 on a weekly basis. While staying largely in a range trading with a positive bias, the headline Index closed with a net weekly gain of 252.35 points (+1.02%). Over the past couple of weeks, the Nifty has traded in a well-defined range created between 24,500-25,100 levels. This would mean that the markets would remain devoid of directional bias unless they take out 25,100 on the higher side or violate the 24,500 level. Despite visibly strong undercurrents, staying reactive to the markets rather than getting predictive would be prudent. Although there are heightened possibilities of the Nifty taking out the 25,100 level, we must consider it as resistance until it is taken out convincingly. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villa For Sale in Dubai Might Surprise You Villas in Dubai | Search ads Learn More Undo The coming week is set to see a stable start; the levels of 25150 and 25400 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports come in at 24,800 and 24500. The trading range is expected to get wider than usual. The weekly RSI is 60.94; it continues to remain neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A strong white candle emerged; this shows the bullish trend that the markets had during the week. Live Events A pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty resisted the upward rising trendline that began from the low of 21,350 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. The Nifty has attempted to penetrate it after resisting it for a couple of weeks. Overall, the coming week may see the markets trading with an underlying bullish bias. However, for this to culminate in a good trending move, the Index will have to take out the 25,100-25,150 zone convincingly on the upside. Until this happens, the markets may continue to consolidate in a broad trading range. Unless there is a strong move that surpasses the 25,100-25,150 zone, one must consider this level as an immediate resistance point. Some pockets have run up too hard over the past few days; one must also focus on protecting gains at current levels rather than chasing the up moves. Fresh purchases must be kept limited in stocks with strong technical setups and the presence of relative strength. A cautiously positive approach is advised for the coming week. In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index continues to build on its relative momentum while staying inside the leading quadrant. It may continue outperforming the markets relatively. The Infrastructure, Consumption, and PSE Index are also inside the leading quadrant but are seen giving up on their relative momentum. The Nifty Bank Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Services Sector, Financial Services, and Commodity Indice are also inside the weakening quadrant. Individual performance of components from these groups may be seen, but overall relative performance may slow down over the coming weeks. The Nifty FMCG Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty Metal and Pharma Indice are languishing in this quadrant. The Nifty IT index is also inside the lagging quadrant, but is seen in a strong bottoming-out process while improving its relative momentum. The Nifty Energy, Media, Realty, and Auto Indices are inside the improving quadrant and may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets. Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals. Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at
