UK could see temperatures of 46C or more in the future, Met Office says
The UK has a 50:50 chance of seeing temperatures of 40C or more again in the next 12 years, the Met Office said.
And temperatures of 45C or more "may be possible" as the risk of extreme heat continues to rise with climate change, experts warned in a new study.
Temperatures first hit 40C in the UK during a record-breaking heatwave in 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on 19 July. The previous top temperature was 38.7C in Cambridge, recorded in 2019.
The extreme heat caused dozens of fires, which ripped through houses, schools, churches and farmland, with fire brigades in London, Leicestershire and South Yorkshire declaring major incidents at the time.
There was also widespread disruption to transport and power systems.
More than 3,000 heat-related deaths were recorded in England over summer 2022, including more than 1,000 excess deaths among older people around the four-day peak of the heatwave.
The risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing, according to analysis by the Met Office using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions.
The chance of temperatures hitting 40C is now 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and the odds have almost tripled since 2000.
Temperatures soaring to a maximum of 46.6C is also considered "plausible".
There is a 50:50 chance of temperatures hitting 40C again in the next 12 years as climate change pushes up temperatures, the Met Office said in the study published in Weather Journal.
"Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance [of exceeding 40C] to keep rising," Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, and lead author of the study, said.
Heatwaves could also go on for a month or more in the future, with a climate model showing up to two-thirds of summer days could be above the heatwave threshold of 28C.
Twelve consecutive days above 35C is also possible, according to the study.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said the findings showed the UK needed to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures to "better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat".
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mail
39 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
10m Americans told to stay indoors TODAY as dangerous conditions spark urgent health warning
More than 10 million Americans across Arizona and Nevada are under an extreme heat warning, as dangerous temperatures climb to life-threatening levels. The National Weather Service (NWS) issued the alert on Wednesday, extending it through Friday in some regions, with temperatures forecasted to climb as high as 120°F in the hottest areas. Officials warn that prolonged exposure to such extreme heat significantly increases the risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations, including young children, the elderly, outdoor workers, and those without access to air conditioning. 'Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors,' the NWS emphasized. In Phoenix and its surrounding metro areas, temperatures are expected to hit 116°F, while Lake Havasu City, the Las Vegas Valley and parts of the Mojave and Colorado River deserts could see highs up to 115°F. Grand Canyon National Park, below 4,000 feet, is forecasted to reach 114°F, posing a serious risk to hikers and park visitors, and temperatures in Death Valley will exceed 120°F. The NWS added that overnight low temperatures may remain unusually warm, offering little to no relief and increasing the likelihood of heat exhaustion and dehydration. ' Heat-related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat events,' the agency noted, urging residents to stay indoors, stay hydrated, and avoid strenuous outdoor activity during peak afternoon hours. Arizona is no stranger to extreme heat, as the warmest temperature ever recorded was 128°F in Lake Havasu City in 1994. Tucson is experiencing dry and hot conditions with the hottest temperatures of the year, potentially breaking or nearing daily records. Grand Canyon Country, the cities of North Rim, Grand Canyon Village and Supai will have 'dangerously hot conditions.' 'This warning is reserved for only the hottest days of the year and is issued when temperatures are expected to rise to dangerous levels,' said the NWS. The agency warned people living in the Phoenix area face a major heat risk, and 'overexposure can cause heat cramps and heat exhaustion to develop and, without intervention, can lead to heat stroke.' Nearly all of northern Nevada is under the warning, which is in effect until midnight. These regions include Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Lake Havasu and Fort Mohave, Northwest Deserts, Death Valley National Park, Western Mojave Desert, Eastern Mojave Desert, San Bernardino County-Upper Colorado River Valley, Western Clark and Southern Nye County and Las Vegas Valley. 'Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening,' the NWS said. 'Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.' Health officials have also warned people living in Nevada and Arizona to avoid drinking coffee due to 'dangerously hot conditions.' They said it is due to the caffeine, even iced coffee is a diuretic, meaning it tells the body to produce and pass more urine. Energy drinks and soda are also a risk. Increased urination causes the body to lose fluids, and if those fluids can't be replaced, the body becomes dehydrated. Without enough fluids, blood volume in the body diminishes, damaging the kidneys, heart, brain and other vital organs. The agency also cautioned against eating meals high in protein, as they naturally raise body temperature because the body needs to expend more energy to digest them. The NWS shared a list of 'don'ts' on a graphic, warning: 'alcohol and caffeine can speed up dehydration.' Diuretic drinks like these tell the kidneys to release more water and produce more urine, which helps the body get rid of excess fluid. But in hot temperatures, the body is already losing fluid due to sweating, so diuretics could drain the body of fluids faster than they can be replaced. In response, blood volume decreases, which means not enough of it can flow to vital organs. This makes sweating, which cools the body down, less effective and makes the body's internal temperature increase. This leads to heat stroke, which causes nausea, vomiting, a rapid pulse, loss of consciousness and organ failure. The NWS also warned against meals high in protein. Compared to carbohydrates and fats, protein takes more energy to digest into amino acid, meaning the body burns more calories. This generates heat. Body temperature increases as a result, a process called diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT). This could explain why eating protein-rich foods might cause 'meat sweats.' Instead of drinking coffee, NWS encouraged people in hot areas to 'drink plenty of water or sports drinks. Health authorities also suggest skipping steak and chicken and instead opting for foods with high water content like watermelon, berries, melons and cucumbers.
The Independent
2 hours ago
- The Independent
Heat dome will blanket much of the US, with worrisome temperatures in Midwest
Summer will make a dramatic entrance in the U.S. this week with a heat dome that will bring stifling temperatures and uncomfortable humidity to millions. The heat will be particularly worrisome this weekend across wide stretches of Nebraska, Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa, where forecasters are warning of extreme temperature impacts. This will be the first stretch of true summertime weather for many from Midwest to the East Coast, said Tom Kines, a meteorologist at the private weather company AccuWeather. 'A lot of those folks have been saying, where's summer? Well, buckle up, because it's coming,' said Kines. The humid conditions will make places that exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) feel as much as 20 degrees hotter, said Kines. Heat dome forming A heat dome occurs when a large area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere acts as a reservoir that traps heat and humidity, said Ricky Castro, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Illinois. According to the NWS Weather Prediction Center, daytime temperatures will be in the 90s Fahrenheit (30s Celsius) and overnight temperatures will only drop to the mid-70s Fahrenheit (mid-20s Celsius) from the Great Lakes to the East Coast during the heat wave that's expected to last into next week. Moisture blown northward from the Gulf of Mexico is fueling the muggy weather, said Jacob Asherman, a Weather Prediction Center meteorologist. This influx of Gulf moisture is fairly typical during late spring and summer, he said. The heat will be widespread into next week. On Friday, Denver could reach 100°F (38°C), according to the weather service. Chicago temperatures could reach 96 degrees (36°C) on Sunday. On Tuesday, Washington, D.C., could see a high of 99°F (37°C) and New York Central Park could reach 96°F (36°C). Several states in the Midwest could see dangerous temperature impacts over the weekend, according to a weather service measure. Parts of Nebraska and Kansas will be in the highest of four categories on the scale on Saturday, meaning that anyone without effective cooling or sufficient hydration could face health risks. On Sunday, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois also see a category 4 rating. High humidity makes it hard to cool down Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air, and the heat index is what the temperature feels like when the humidity outside is factored in, according to the weather service. When humans sweat, it cools the body down because it absorbs and removes heat as it evaporates off the skin. The air is saturated with water on humid days, which makes it harder for sweat to evaporate. Hot and humid days can be dangerous when the body is unable to cool itself off and can exacerbate pre-existing health conditions and even lead to heat stroke. Minimizing direct sun exposure, wearing loose and light-colored clothing, staying hydrated and spending time in air-conditioned spaces are ways to cool down during extreme heat, according to the NWS. Some parts of the U.S., such as Phoenix, Arizona, are famously hot without the mugginess. Phoenix and nearby desert regions experience this so-called 'dry heat' due to being located far away from large water bodies, mountains that block moist air masses and weather patterns that bring scarce precipitation. Sweat evaporates faster in dry climates compared to humid ones. This can be dangerous because it is easy to underestimate how dehydrated you are, according to Johns Hopkins University and Johns Hopkins Health System. Even the crops "sweat" In places such as Iowa, crops can affect the humidity in summer months. Plants feel the effects of hot weather and some people in the Midwest are familiar with ' corn sweat,' which is when crops move water to their leaves and other surfaces so it can evaporate, according to the Ohio State University. Madison County, Iowa, farmer Ryan Marquardt said corn sweat is 'not as bad as a sauna, but it definitely would have a sauna effect. It's humid in there (the cornfield), so you're gonna sweat.' Cornfield contributions to the overall humidity are much lower compared to the humidity winds carry from the Gulf of Mexico, according to OSU. ___ Associated Press writer Jack Dura in Bismarck, North Dakota, contributed to this report. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Will the heatwave set to hit parts of UK reach Scotland?
And yellow heat-health alerts have been issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) for most of England which are in force until 6pm on Sunday. The alerts, which means there could be an increased use of healthcare services by vulnerable people, cover Yorkshire and the Humber, the East Midlands, West Midlands, east of England, London, the South East and South West. READ MORE: Millions of midges could hatch early in Scotland due to warm weather A heatwave is defined as three consecutive days where temperatures meet or exceed a specific threshold - 25C in Scotland. The Met Office said that by Saturday, many areas, particularly in Wales, the West Midlands, and Somerset, are likely to meet the criteria. By Sunday, central and eastern England, and even parts of eastern Scotland, could also qualify. Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Dan Holley said: 'Saturday is expected to be the peak of this hot spell, with temperatures fairly widely reaching into the low 30 Celsius across parts of England, with high 20s likely as far north as northern and eastern Scotland. It will also be very warm at night over the weekend, with the potential for a few places to experience a 'tropical night', when temperatures do not drop below 20C.' Some thundery showers could be seen in northern and western areas on Friday and into the weekend, before fresher conditions arrive later in the weekend and into next week, resulting in temperatures falling and potentially more unsettled weather, the forecaster added.
