As Trump prepares for a Middle East visit...
WITH the exception of a short trip to the Vatican to attend Pope Francis' funeral, US president Donald Trump has stayed stateside during the first three months of his second term. That will change this Tuesday, May 13, when the president begins a three-day visit to the Middle East to attend a series of meetings with Gulf Arab leaders and possibly drop in on a Gulf Cooperation Council summit.
While we still don't know what Trump's agenda is or what he seeks to accomplish, one could make a reasonable guess that the administration will try to finalise some 'big, beautiful' deals with the Gulf Arab states in the form of investments in certain US sectors. This should include the usual US defence exports past presidents have been so fond of inking.
The latter is already underway. The State Department recently notified Congress of a US$3.5bil (RM15bil) deal that would sell 1,000 air-to-air missiles to Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration is reportedly trying to wrap up a gigantic US$100bil (RM428bil) arms package to the Saudis as well. If this sounds familiar, that's because it is – during his first term, Trump proposed a US$110bil arms deal to Riyadh, parts of which stalled after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was found responsible for the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
Other than that, however, it's hard to envision Trump achieving anything major during his trip. Much of what is occurring in the Middle East is beyond Washington's capacity to control, and the issues the United States has some ability to influence – such as the war in Gaza – have been written off as lost causes.
To be blunt, the Trump administration's record on the Middle East is inadequate so far. The results simply aren't there. And while some will argue that passing judgment after three months is unfair, it's important to note that Trump himself has set the bar high.
On Gaza, it appears the US has lost interest in what is happening. This wasn't always the case. Even before Trump was inaugurated, he dispatched his trusted envoy, Steve Witkoff, to help President Joe Biden's outgoing administration solidify a three-stage ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Trump's involvement proved to be instrumental. Wary of landing on Trump's bad side right out of the gate, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to sign onto a ceasefire he had resisted for months. The war was paused for more than six weeks, Israel received nearly three dozen Israeli hostages and humanitarian organisations used the truce to expedite aid into Gaza.
Yet nothing lasts in the Middle East for long. The Israeli government refused to enter Phase 2, which mandated a negotiation to end the war permanently. Instead, Netanyahu is now preparing to flood Gaza with Israeli troops and keep them there indefinitely. Trump doesn't appear to mind any of this, even though Netanyahu's actions violate the very peace plan he helped push across the finish line.
Speaking of wars, the Trump administration has broadened one in Yemen against the Houthis. Since the war in Gaza erupted in October 2023, the Yemeni militia has fired drones and ballistic missiles into the Red Sea ostensibly to pressure Israel to stop the war in Gaza.
Trump has escalated the Biden administration's air campaign to force the Houthis to rethink their strategy. More than 1,000 Houthi targets have been destroyed since the Trump administration's air campaign began in mid-March, and the Pentagon has made a show on its social media feeds of US fighter aircraft taking off for bombing runs.
The Houthis, though, haven't been deterred. This past weekend, a Houthi ballistic missile evaded Israeli air defences and slammed into Ben Gurion Airport, causing a temporary shutdown. On Wednesday, Israel carried out retaliatory attacks on the airport in Yemen's capital city of Sanaa. Trump had essentially backed himself into an endless tit-for-tat with an anti-American militia, but hours after Israel's Yemeni airport strike, the US president told the press that he had reached an agreement with the Houthi rebel group to end US strikes on Yemen.
More promising is the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran. The country is still reeling from Trump's 2018 withdrawal of the US from a nuclear deal that lifted onerous US and European sanctions on the Iranian economy in exchange for strict, verifiable limitations on the Iranian nuclear programme. Trump now has ordered new negotiations with the Iranians, to put Tehran's nuclear work back into a box and to avoid a war whose costs would heavily outweigh the benefits.
Three rounds of talks have taken place so far, with a fourth still to be scheduled. Depending on how flexible Trump is and whether Iran is confident enough in US assurances, Trump can either walk away from the process with a tangible diplomatic win or leave empty-handed.
It's still early in Trump's term, so it wouldn't be fair to categorise his tenure on foreign policy matters as an unmitigated disaster. But as he prepares for his trip to the Middle East, the president is running headfirst into the reality of international diplomacy.
It's taxing work, and talking about success is hardly sufficient. — Chicago Tribune/TNS
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities.
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