Opinion - Trump's tariff rollercoaster could tank his presidency
You've got a better chance of predicting when an earthquake will hit California than you have predicting what President Trump is going to do tomorrow — regardless of what he says today.
First, he tells us tariffs are on. Then tariffs are off, sort of — and, who knows, he may change his mind again before he sits down for lunch.
Stocks are down, then they're up and by the time you read this they may be down again. Who knows?
Trump isn't happy unless he's unleashing some kind of chaos on the world. And yesterday, when the president suddenly announced that he would back down on his 'reciprocal' tariffs for 90 days, the S&P 500 took off, rising almost 10 percent in just one day.
When he was running for president in 2024, Trump made a promise to the American people — a promise that played as well in diners in Ohio as it did in boardrooms in Manhattan: that he would lower prices and build a booming economy unlike anything we'd seen under President Joe Biden.
The pitch was simple. Elect a businessman, not a politician. Elect someone who knows the art of the deal, not the art of government red tape. Prices will drop, jobs will come back and America will be great again.
Fast forward — President Trump is back in the White House, and last week he announced what he called 'Liberation Day,' which turned out to be 'Obliteration Day' as the stock markets crashed, with the Dow falling almost 1,700 points.
Liberation Day was when he announced a whole array of steep tariffs on friends and foes alike. But you just knew Trump wasn't going to let the markets continue to slide. If that happened, he'd be seen as the villain who drained 401(k) retirement accounts from senior citizens, who just happen to vote in big numbers.
Hence, the reprieve he announced yesterday. But his decisions on tariffs have already caused damage — to more than the financial markets.
After a few days of devastating loses, Gerry Baker wrote in his Wall Street Journal column that Trump is trashing America's reputation around the and doing 'irreversible damage to the greatest geopolitical brand ever created.'
'Allies — staunchly pro-American friends from Canada to Denmark to Poland — are sullen, angry and scared,' Baker writes. 'Adversaries who have long envied our power and tried unsuccessfully to undermine it, are hugging themselves with joy.'
And tariffs are taxes by another name. They don't just punish China, Mexico or Vietnam. They punish Americans who buy things — which, last I checked, is just about everyone, which explains why he's now having second thoughts about his 'beautiful' tariffs.
If Trump didn't change course, prices weren't going to come down as he promised; they'd go up. The economy wouldn't get stronger but would likely slide into recession,
And here's the political reality: When the economy tanks, presidents pay — and so does their party. It doesn't matter how much they talk about bringing jobs home. Americans may love the idea of long-term strategy, but they vote based on short-term pain.
Trump has said that over time tariffs would help bring back manufacturing. That they'd create millions of good-paying jobs here at home. Maybe that would be true. Maybe it's wishful thinking.
But people don't live in the long run — they live in the right now. And if the Trump tariffs ultimately wind up staying in place, groceries will cost more — same with appliances, cars and a whole bunch of other things. That's not a winning message.
Americans will head to the polls for the midterms in 18 months. And if prices are high and the economy is wobbly, don't be surprised if the Democrats take back the House. The Senate is a steeper climb, but not impossible. And if they pull it off, Trump's second-term agenda will be finished.
The big gains in the markets yesterday may be the beginning of more gains, or it could just be what they call 'a bear market bounce' — a short uptick in stocks coming after several devastating down days.
So who knows how this will turn out. But Trump's brand has always been tied to the idea that he's a businessman who knows how to make deals. If that narrative collapses, then not only does he lose the political clout that comes with his presidency, his party could be dragged down with him.
And if that happens, no amount of spin, no amount of 'rosy scenarios' from the Trump White House would change the facts on the ground. As James Carville once famously said: 'It's the economy, stupid.' Always has been. Always will be.
One more thing: When Trump declared that tariff 'is the most beautiful word in the dictionary,' did anyone in his inner circle have the courage — or the common sense — to say, 'Mr. President, this is not a good idea, not the way you're going about it. The way you're doing it will create turmoil in markets around the world and turn our friends into enemies?'
Knowing Trump's penchant for surrounding himself with 'yes men' and 'yes women,' the short answer is: not likely.
Too bad. Because if somebody had the guts to speak truth to Trump's power, he — and all of us — could have avoided a lot of the needless chaos that he single-handedly created.
Bernard Goldberg is an Emmy and an Alfred I. duPont-Columbia University award-winning writer and journalist. He is the author of five books and publishes exclusive weekly columns, audio commentaries and Q&As on his Substack page. Follow him @BernardGoldberg.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Politico
23 minutes ago
- Politico
Kweisi Mfume is pitching an old-school approach to one of House Democrats' highest-profile jobs
Frustrated by Democrats' seniority system, Kweisi Mfume fled the House three decades ago, saying he could do more to advance civil rights from the outside. Now he's back and trying to reap the benefits of seniority at a moment when many in his party are starting to openly question it. The Baltimore native last month surprised many House colleagues by entering the wide-open race to lead Democrats on the high-profile Oversight Committee, seeking to fill the spot vacated by the sudden death of Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly. Into the void jumped a pair of young, ambitious members — Jasmine Crockett of Texas and Robert Garcia of California — as well as a close Connolly ally, Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts. And then there's Mfume, who at 76 is making no bones about this being the capstone of a long career that included stints leading the Congressional Black Caucus and the NAACP — jobs he took back in the 1990s. 'I started a long time ago when dinosaurs roamed the earth,' Mfume joked in an interview, before describing his old-school approach to legislative relations: 'The first thing you learn is how to count votes, which has never failed me yet,' he said, adding that he would be careful not to alienate colleagues 'by doing something that causes problems for them in their district.' Rather than detail a point-by-point agenda for taking on President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans, Mfume said if elected he'd convene the committee's Democrats to decide a course of action. The party, he said, can only move forward with a 'consensus.' That style stands in sharp contrast to a Democratic base that's itching for more aggressive leadership and a more visible fight with Trump — something the other candidates are clearly heeding: Garcia has tangled with the Justice Department over his criticism of Elon Musk; Crockett has broached the prospect of a Trump impeachment inquiry; and Lynch, as the panel's interim top Democrat, attempted last week to subpoena Musk during a panel hearing. The race also threatens to become a proxy fight for broader questions about age and seniority inside the Democratic Party. House Democrats ousted several aging committee leaders at the end of last Congress as they girded for a fight with the Trump administration — and many in the base were disappointed when Connolly triumphed over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. The winner is poised to lead efforts to investigate and thwart the Trump administration if Democrats can retake the House majority next year — and ride herd on a chaotic panel that in recent months has featured intense personal attacks between lawmakers and the display of nude photos. 'It's a street fight every day,' said Rep. Lateefah Simon of California when asked about the panel and what it takes to lead it. 'It's every single day being able to expose the hypocrisy of this administration and to tell the truth.' There was a time when Mfume would have been a natural choice for such a moment. First elected to Baltimore's City Council at the age of 30, he quickly butted heads with legendary Mayor William Donald Schaefer. After longtime Rep. Parren Mitchell retired, Mfume easily won the seat in 1986 and within a few years become a national figure due to his chairmanship of the CBC. Ascending to that role just as Bill Clinton was elected to the presidency, he became an important power broker, forcing key concessions in Clinton's 1993 budget and pushing the White House to restore ousted Haitian president Jean-Bertrand Aristide to power. He also clashed with Clinton at times, including over his decision to pull the nomination of prominent Black legal scholar Lani Guinier to a top Justice Department post. But after Democrats lost their House majority in 1994 — and Mfume lost a quixotic bid to enter the party leadership — he decided two years later to forgo a long climb up the seniority ladder. He instead took the helm at the Baltimore-based NAACP, a job thought to better harness his skills at organizing and oratory. Former Maryland state Sen. Jill Carter said Mfume has long had the 'it factor' and 'charisma' that matters in politics. When Carter ran against Mfume in his 2020 House comeback bid, she got a reminder of how well her rival was known in the district and beyond: 'When some of my people did exit polling, they got the response, 'Oh, we love Jill but, come on, this is Kweisi.'' What's less clear is whether Mfume's reputation in Baltimore, burnished over 45 years in the public eye, makes him the man for the moment as far as his contemporary House colleagues are concerned. He's not known as a partisan brawler, and he said in the interview he doesn't intend to become one. 'There are always going to be fights and disagreements,' he said. 'It's kind of escalated in the last few years to a level that we haven't seen before. I think the main thing is to moderate and to manage the disagreements, because you're not going to cause any of them to go away. How you manage them and how they are perceived by the overall public is what makes a difference.' Mfume is leaning heavily, in fact, on the style and reputation of the man who filled the 7th District seat for the 24 years in between his House stints — the late Rep. Elijah Cummings, who served as top Democrat and then chair of Oversight during Trump's first term and is still spoken of in reverent terms inside the caucus. Mfume concedes that Cummings might have been the better communicator — he 'had a little more preacher in him than I do' — but said they share a similar lofty approach to politics. Like Cummings, he suggested prescription drug prices might be a committee priority. What Mfume is unlikely to have is the official support of the Congressional Black Caucus, a powerful force in intracaucus politics. With two members in the race — Crockett also belongs — Mfume said he does not expect a formal CBC endorsement after an interview process Wednesday. But he still expected to draw support from the bloc — especially its more senior members. Other factors complicate Mfume's candidacy. One is age: He is a year older than Connolly was when he was elected to lead Oversight Democrats last year. For those who prize seniority, Lynch has actually spent more time on the panel. And his 2004 departure from the NAACP was marred by controversy: The Baltimore Sun reported the executive committee of the group voted not to extend his contract under threat of a sexual harassment lawsuit; the NAACP later paid the woman who complained a $100,000 settlement. Mfume strenuously denied any wrongdoing, but while the episode has not emerged as a major issue in the Oversight race, some Democrats have privately expressed reservations about elevating a leader with personal baggage to potentially lead investigations of Trump. 'There's never been one person to corroborate that one allegation — not one,' Mfume said. About the payment, he said, 'I found out about it, quite frankly, after it happened.' Much of the Democratic Caucus remains undecided ahead of the June 24 secret-ballot vote. Candidates will first go before Democrats' Steering and Policy Committee, which will make a recommendation to the full caucus. 'I think that you have a situation where Mfume and Steve Lynch are getting support from folks who put seniority at top, and maybe the other two candidates would probably lean toward members who are newer, and then you got a whole host of folks that's in the middle. And I think that's where the battle is to see where they fall,' said Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.). One younger member said he was swayed by Mfume's experience. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who is 48 and had weighed his own bid, said that while other candidates were compelling, the Baltimorean had a 'leg up.' 'Kweisi shows me pictures of him with Nelson Mandela,' he said. 'I was like, I'm not going to run against Nelson Mandela's best friend.'
New York Times
23 minutes ago
- New York Times
Texas Governor Will Deploy National Guard to Immigration Protests
Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas said late Tuesday that he would deploy National Guard troops across the state, making him the first governor to do so as protests against the Trump administration's immigration crackdown spread across the United States. Mr. Abbott, a Republican and a vocal supporter of President Trump's immigration agenda, said on social media that he would not tolerate violence as protests are planned in San Antonio on Wednesday. The protests that began in Los Angeles last Friday against federal immigration raids have spread to more than a dozen U.S. cities, including Dallas, Austin, Houston and San Antonio. While many of the protests have been peaceful, police have clashed with demonstrators at some of them. Mr. Trump has threatened to override governors who don't want to send National Guard troops to stop protests, like the president did in California, where he sent nearly 5,000 National Guard troops and Marines over the strong objections of state leaders. That has made California ground zero for Mr. Trump's immigration agenda, which includes ramping up deportations of undocumented immigrants with the help of local law enforcement agencies and, in a rare action, active-duty military forces. Mr. Abbott's announcement said that the Texas National Guard will 'use every tool & strategy to help law enforcement maintain order.' 'Peaceful protest is legal,' he added. 'Harming a person or property is illegal & will lead to arrest.' The announcement did not specify where and when the troops will be deployed. Mr. Abbott's office, the San Antonio Police Department, the Texas National Guard and U.S. Northern Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment. On Monday night, more than a dozen protesters were arrested in Austin during a demonstration at the Texas Capitol in Austin, Mr. Abbott had said. Law enforcement officials used tear gas and pepper ball projectiles, the Texas Department of Public Safety said.
Time Magazine
24 minutes ago
- Time Magazine
‘Went Too Far': Elon Musk Says He Regrets Some Posts About Trump
'I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week,' Elon Musk posted on his social media platform X early Wednesday. 'They went too far.' Musk and Trump, who were once almost inseparable allies, were engaged in a public and vitriolic war of words last week. But the fierce hostilities between the man with the most money in the world and the man with the mightiest military appear to be cooling. The statement of remorse by Musk, who spent more than $250 million to help elect Trump in 2024, comes as observers have noticed another shift in his tone on social media toward the Administration. In retweets and replies, Musk signaled support for Trump's approach toward the protests in Los Angeles, including sharing multiple of the President's recent posts from Truth Social. He also responded with a heart emoji to a video of Trump telling reporters on Monday that he wished Musk well and that they had a 'good relationship.' It's a sharp contrast to how the two powerful men discussed each other last week, after Musk left his official government role and ramped up his criticisms of Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' massive tax-and-spending legislative package that is stumbling through Congress. 'Elon and I had a great relationship. I don't know if we will anymore,' Trump told reporters at the White House on June 5. 'I'm very disappointed in Elon. I've helped Elon a lot.' On Truth Social, Trump said at the time that Musk ' went CRAZY!' and threatened that the 'easiest way to save money' would be 'to terminate Elon's Governmental Subsidies and Contracts.' In turn, Musk alleged that the Administration was holding back the public release of so-called Epstein Files because Trump is implicated in them, and he endorsed a message that suggested 'Trump should be impeached' and Vance 'should replace him.' Those posts have since been deleted.
