China Market Update: Substantial Progress, Tariffs Reduced To 10% For 90 Days
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Asian equities cheered the initial positive comments concerning the US-China trade meeting over the weekend and the India-Pakistan truce, as the Renminbi appreciated nearly +0.5% versus the US dollar. Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore were closed for Vesak Day, celebrating the birth, Enlightenment, and death of the Buddha.
After Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Mainland China's Shanghai and Shenzhen markets closed today, Hong Kong stocks went vertical once the 3 pm local time press conference from Treasury Secretary Bessent and US Trade Representative Greer revealed the larger than expected 90-day drop in US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 10%, though it appears a 20% additional levy could remain pending progress on curbing fentanyl precursor imports, and China's tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. Bessent said that 'substantial progress' had been made, though Vice Premier He Lifeng, China's Minister of Commerce, did not elaborate beyond the joint statement. With Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on supply chain independence in 'strategic industries,' we can assume that this includes steel, aluminum, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
The Hang Seng, Hang Seng Tech, Shanghai, and Shenzhen indexes all closed above, i.e. 'filled the gap', from their pre-Liberation Day levels. Hong Kong-listed Healthcare stocks constituted the only negative sector, after President Trump's Executive Order on lowering drug costs. Wuxi AppTec, with its US facilities, was a rare healthcare gainer. All things growth, consumer, and capital markets were on fire, including electric vehicles, hybrids, E-Commerce, household appliances, semiconductors, brokerages, and beverages were all higher.
Hong Kong-listed growth stocks ripped higher on volume that increased +99% from Friday to 172% of the 1-year average, led by the most heavily traded stocks by value Alibaba, which gained +6.15%, Tencent, which gained +4.63%, Xiaomi, which fell -1.46%, Meituan, which gained +2.48%, BYD, which gained +7.39%, and Hong Kong Exchanges, which gained +3.38%. Mainland investors sold a net -$2.38 billion worth of Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs today. Despite closing prior to the press conferences from Bessent, Greer, and the Ministry of Commerce.
Mainland China had a good day, led by growth stocks, especially electronic equipment makers. Battery giant CATL gained +3.52% in advance of their Hong Kong relisting. JD.com reports tomorrow after the close in Hong Kong.
China's delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, stated, 'The high-level talks between China and the United States were frank, in-depth and constructive, reached an important consensus and made substantial progress. Both sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. China and the United States will finalize the relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement reached in the talks on May 12.' Today's positive announcement is a small step toward better US-China political relations, while dampening the geopolitical headwind that has kept many US investors from owning Chinese equities. I suspect US ownership of Chinese equities is at or near all-time lows, though an improving relationship could bring investors off the sidelines.
Congress's view of China is abysmal, which raises the positive knock-on effects of President Trump's effort, as numerous former Republican politicians failed to support his agenda. This won't happen overnight, obviously, but it is an underestimated detour in the re-rating of China's stocks.
The Wall Street Journal had a worthwhile read titled 'How Tariffs Are Crushing Small Businesses: 'Nobody in Power Seems to Care''. The article provides examples of small businesses reliant on Chinese goods or inputs, while lacking lobbyist support in Washington, DC. I stumbled upon a Buzzfeed article titled 'Tariff Sticker Shock: Real Receipts From Americans' that looked at receipts from individuals and small businesses that show the additional tariff costs from Twitter and other social media. From Mother Day's flowers to business suits to MAGA hats, the tariffs on goods from numerous countries left readers shocked, based on their comments.
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