‘Elbows up': Canadian public opinion of the U.S. hits a new low after Donald Trump's election

Toronto Star

12 hours ago

Canadian public sentiment towards the United States has plummeted to new depths, a new report suggests, revealing how decades of Canadian goodwill toward its southern neighbour have reversed mere months after President Donald Trump took office.
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The survey, conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research, also found the vast majority of respondents were strongly opposed to Canada becoming the 51st state.
'It's really the worst collective opinions of the U.S. that we have recorded' in the more than 40 years the institute has been keeping track, said Keith Neuman, a senior associate at the Environics Institute for Survey Research. 'By more than a two-to-one margin, Canadians' opinions are negative rather than positive.'
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It's the result of what some experts call a 'visceral reaction' toward Trump's tariffs and annexation threats.
'The unfavourable feelings are much stronger this time, and much more intense,' said Adam Chapnick, a Canadian foreign policy analyst and professor of defence studies at the Royal Military College of Canada.
'It's being reflected in Canadians not travelling to the United States, not purchasing products that are made in the United States and becoming more serious about making hard decisions domestically to improve our productivity and competitiveness in the world.'
Canadian public perception of the U.S. hits new low
The survey, conducted in mid-May, found 65 per cent of respondents held an 'unfavourable' opinion of the U.S., while just 29 per cent had a 'favourable' opinion.
That's a dramatic shift from last fall, when public sentiment toward the U.S. was divided roughly 50-50.
The closest Canadians have come to a similar unfavourability rating was in 2020, during the tail end of Trump's first administration. At the time, 63 per cent of Canadians felt unfavourable to the U.S.
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'In Trump's first term, it took several years for Canadian public opinion to deteriorate to the same point,' Neuman noted. 'The impact on Canadian public opinion has been much quicker this time ... there's not only the history, but he's been much more aggressive and assertive with policies much quicker this time around.'
A majority of Conservative voters — 57 per cent — still viewed the U.S. favourably, down six points from last fall. In contrast, more than 80 per cent of Liberal, Bloc Quebecois and NDP voters had an unfavourable opinion of the States.
Overall, 78 per cent of Canadians disapproved of Trump's handling of the U.S. presidency, a figure that matched 2018. Trump was most popular among Conservative voters, 30 per cent of whom approved of his performance.
Canadians can still recover their positive relationship with the States 'if we can turn things around in a reasonable period of time,' Chapnick said, referencing Trump's tariffs and threats against Canadian sovereignty.
'I think that the long-term positive relationship is quite resilient,' he said. 'Geography makes us more resilient. Family ties add to that. I think that, should things get back to some sort of new normal, there should be an ability for us to bounce back to a reasonable degree.'
Large majority of Canadians strongly against becoming the 51st state
Canadians have taken an 'elbows up' response to Trump's threats against Canadian sovereignty, Neuman said.
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Eighty-three per cent of respondents said they 'strongly disagree' that Canada and the U.S. should unite into one country, while just seven per cent said a merger should happen.
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That's a stronger sentiment than when the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) — the precursor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) — was negotiated in 1986, stoking fears of an economic and cultural merger between the two nations. Back then, just 63 per cent of Canadians were strongly against Canada and the U.S. uniting.
Shortly after the CUSFTA was implemented in the late-1980s, an Environics poll found 30 per cent of Canadians felt it was 'very likely' that Canada will remain independent from the U.S. over the next decade. Today, that figure has jumped to 70 per cent.
'That, in some ways, is maybe the most surprising or notable finding,' Neuman said. 'It's not evident that we should be seeing that strong a level of confidence right now, given the uncertainty with tariffs and the uncertainty about Trump ... We have not been threatened as a country like this since before we became a country.'
But Chapnick wasn't surprised, noting that Canadians grew more confident in their nation's sovereignty after worries of annexation during CUSFTA negotiations didn't come to pass.
Canadians changing plans to visit the U.S.
According to Chapnick, Canadians' plummeting support of the States will have little significance on the 'strategic level.' The real impact will be felt by our pocketbooks, in our trade relations and tourism, he said.
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The Environics poll found 35 per cent of respondents have already changed plans to visit the U.S. this year — more than double those who made the same decision during Trump's first term in 2017. Thirty-two per cent say they'll carry on with their U.S. trips, seven per cent are thinking of changing plans and 24 per cent said they never had any plans for a U.S. visit.
The results reflect that trips from Canada to the States have cratered as polls show more than half of Canadians believe it's no longer safe for all Canadians to travel to the U.S.
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'There's an economic impact for certain,' Chapnick said. 'But I'm not convinced yet that individual Canadians dislike individual Americans any more than they would have before.'
The Environics Institute for Survey Research conducted telephone interviews with a representative sample of 2,000 Canadians between May 5 and 18, 2025. A sample of this size produces results accurate within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points in 19 out of 20 samples.