Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 107

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3 days ago

The post Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 107 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
The UFC returns to The Apex in Las Vegas as we're set to kick off another Fight Night card, beginning in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. Fresh prospects will meet as Brazil's Rayanne dos Santos will take on Alice Ardelean of Romania. Check the UFC odds series for our dos Santos-Ardelean prediction and pick.
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Rayanne dos Santos (14-8) is still searching for her first win on the UFC stage with an 0-2 record. Both losses came by split decision against Talita Alencar and Puja Tomar, so she's hoping for a much more definitive result as the moderate betting favorite in this one. Dos Santos stands 5-foot-2 with a 62-inch reach.
Alice Ardelean (9-7) will also search for her first UFC win with an 0-2 record throughout 2024. She lost a razor-thin split decision to Shauna Bannon during her debut and lost a following unanimous decision against Melissa Martinez. She'll look to surprise as the underdog here. Ardelean stands 5-foot-3 with a 62-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 107 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 107 Odds: Rayanne dos Santos-Alice Ardelean Odds
Rayanne dos Santos: -265
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Alice Ardelean: +215
Over 2.5 rounds: -475
Under 2.5 rounds: +325
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Why Rayanne dos Santos Will Win
Last Fight: (L) Puja Tomar – S DEC
Last 5: 3-2
Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Rayanne dos Santos came extremely close in both of her losses in the UFC and could easily be fighting with an opposite 2-0 record had she done just a few things differently. She's very skilled on the ground and is constantly improving her skills by entering in grappling competitions. With eight wins by submission, seven of them have come by way of armbar as she'll be a major threat to finish this fight from her back.
Rayanne dos Santos will be looking for more striking output during this fight as she fell behind on the numbers in her previous two bouts. She's landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute but absorbing 5.2, so she'll need to be a bit more defensive and pick her shots carefully.
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Finally, dos Santos will have to greatly improve her takedowns if she wants to have success on the ground. She's logging just 12% accuracy on her takedown attempts through her first two fights, so she'll need to work on wrestling transitions in order to get the fight where it needs to be. Still, look for an improved version with a greater sense of urgency during this fight.
Why Alice Ardelean Will Win
Last Fight: (L) Melissa Martinez – U DEC
Last 5: 3-2
Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Alice Ardelean has had a similar journey through her first two UFC appearances, coming up just short in the striking numbers and failing to create significant moments during the bouts. She rode a seven-fight winning streak prior to entering the UFC, so she's certainly confident in her skills against a wide array of competition. Getting over the UFC hump will be her biggest focus as no fight will be an easy one from here on out.
Alice Ardelean is much more accurate and active with her striking than dos Santos, able to find her rhythm quickly and settle into a groove. Once she finds the range, she stays consistent with her lead jab, and with a 100% takedown defense thus far, she won't be at too much risk of getting taken down during this fight. Two of her pro losses have come by submission, however, and she'll have to be much more diligent in protecting herself there throughout this one.
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While Alice Ardelean is listed as the betting underdog, this fight is certainly up for grabs if she's able to get out ahead in the striking numbers. From there, she should be able to control the pace of this fight and log damage slowly but surely.
Final Rayanne dos Santos-Alice Ardelean Prediction & Pick
Both women are searching for their first UFC win and have a ton of potential if they're able to bring their skills together in a seamless manner. Rayanne dos Santos is much more dangerous on the ground, but is still struggling to get opponents down with her wrestling. Alice Ardelean has shown flashes of a solid base, but she'll need to do a better job of asserting herself as the aggressor during this one.
Ultimately, the betting odds should be much closer as both fighters have left a lot to be desired from their previous performances. Still, I expect dos Santos to make the greater improvements and have more ways to win this fight, but it's just a matter of her finding success within her offense.
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For our final betting prediction, we'll roll with the favorite in Rayanne dos Santos to win this fight by decision. She's been the more consistent prospect through her initial action, and we'll take a chance on her despite the juiced betting odds.
Final Rayanne dos Santos-Alice Ardelean Prediction & Pick: Rayanne dos Santos (-265)