Elon Musk predicts robots will outsmart human surgeons in 5 years: Is it true?

India Today

30-04-2025

Elon Musk has sparked a debate online saying that robots could become better than even the world's best surgeons in the next five years.The Tesla and SpaceX CEO made this prediction while replying to a post on X by influencer Mario Nawfal.The post highlighted the progress of robotic surgery, including the American-Irish medical device company Medtronic's Hugo robot, which recently showed a high success rate in surgeries for prostate, kidney, and bladder problems.advertisement
The Hugo robot mentioned in Nawfal's post was tested in 137 real-life surgeries and had a 98.5% success rate, well above the expected 85%, according to a report.Musk pointed to his company, Neuralink, which uses a robot to perform extremely precise brain surgeries, procedures he said are too complex and delicate for human hands alone."Robots will surpass good human surgeons within a few years and the best human surgeons within [approximately] 5 year," Musk wrote.
He said Neuralink's robot had to be used because the work was too fast and precise for a human surgeon.CAN IT REALLY HAPPEN IN FIVE YEARS?advertisementRobotic surgery is a type of surgery where doctors use special machines with robotic arms to help perform operations. The doctor, while sitting behind a console, controls the robot using a computer.This helps make very small, careful movements, which can lead to less pain, smaller cuts, and faster healing for the patient.
A doctor carrying out a robotic surgery. ()
Dr Sankar Adusumilli, a US-based senior surgeon who has done over 2,400 robot-assisted surgeries, replied on Musk's post calling his prediction "misleading."He explained that robotic systems are still tools, not independent doctors."The robot doesn't do the surgery on its own. The surgeon is in control, using a console to guide the robot. Every move the robot makes comes from the surgeon. I cannot let Robot to make intricate decisions- since Every patient is different,' he said.He added that since no two patients are the same, it takes a human to make the right decision during complex surgeries."Even the best autopilot needs a skilled human pilot - same applies to surgery," Dr Adusumilli wrote.
According to Dr Sudhir Srivastava, founder of India's first indigenous surgical robot, SSI Mantra, while Musk's statement sparks an important conversation, the prediction requires nuance.He said that even though robotic systems are becoming indispensable tools in surgery, the statement, however, overlooks a fundamental truth that surgery is not solely about precision."It is equally about real-time decision-making, adaptability, and patient-specific judgment," Dr. Srivastava told India Today Digital."At present, and for the foreseeable future, robots remain tools that enhance the capabilities of skilled surgeons. They do not make clinical decisions or adapt to the wide anatomical and physiological variations present in every patient. Having personally performed and overseen thousands of robotic surgeries, I can attest that a surgeon's intuition, expertise, and adaptability are irreplaceable," he said.
First Indian surgical robot. (Photo: SSI Mantra)
advertisementAnother US-based doctor, who goes by the name 'mckalip' according to their bio, stated that robots cannot perform surgeries alone without human help."This is false. As a neurosurgeon, I promise you that no 'robot' surgeon can ever autonomously perform brain and spine surgery or likely any surgeries effectively, appropriately or safely. Too many variables require critical thinking," the user said.
An orthopaedic surgeon Dr Steven Denyer, in the comments section, said that while robots are the future, older technology will still exist. "Robots are here to stay. But we still use fax machines and whiteboards, and we can't see X-rays done at another hospital in the same city in real time," Denyer wrote.
Dr Francisco Cardoso from Brazil added that the Tesla CEO's prediction holds true but only in part, stating that unexpected things happen during surgery and robots won't be able to make spontaneous decisions.advertisement"...the surgeon needs to use creativity to solve problems, and that is what separates the best from the average. A robot is still far from having this mastery of something that it was not programmed to do," Cardoso wrote.
A Musk supporter chimed in and said, "Think of the lives that could be saved with mass-produced, high-quality robotic surgeons. It could reduce healthcare costs and help in places where doctors are few."Adding to this, Dr Srivastava agreed that while surgeons do bring sound judgement, robot-assisted surgeries can transform rural healthcare, especially telesurgery, where doctors cannot reach remote places.As technology keeps advancing, robotic surgery is becoming more common in hospitals. But experts say we're still far from a future where robots work on their own - without the help of skilled human hands.