Megabill heads toward a Senate buzzsaw

Politico

23-05-2025

Presented by
Programming note: We'll be off this Monday but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.
IN TODAY'S EDITION:— GOP senators eye 'big, beautiful' changes— MAGA economist: Megabill a total bust— Last-minute move to rein in REINS Act
Speaker Mike Johnson struck a series of delicate deals to get the GOP's 'big, beautiful bill' through the House. Now, Senate Republicans are threatening to tear them apart.
Despite behind-the-scenes efforts to smooth versions of the bill between chambers and pleas from Johnson to avoid significant changes, the megabill could be in for a major rewrite across the Capitol, our Jordain Carney and Benjamin Guggenheim report.
'The Senate will have its imprint on it,' Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. 'They've got to do what they can get 218 for, and we've got to do what we can get 51 for.'
Here are some of the early fault lines:
MEDICAID FINANCING — There's a battle brewing between Senate Republicans over the House's push to freeze the provider tax, which Sen. Josh Hawley warned 'is a real risk to rural hospitals.'
Who to watch: Sens. Hawley, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, who have all drawn red lines on Medicaid benefit cuts.
CLEAN-ENERGY CREDITS — House Republicans' move to speed up sunset dates for several clean-energy tax credits in Democrats' 2022 climate law is stoking Senate GOP fears that it could have a 'chilling effect' on future investments, Sen. Thom Tillis told Lisa on Thursday.
Who to watch: Sens. Tillis, Murkowski, John Curtis and Jerry Moran, who recently sent a letter to GOP leadership warning against gutting the credits.
SPENDING CUTS — Some GOP senators openly derided House hard-liners for not securing steeper spending cuts in their version of the megabill (House fiscal hawks mocked them back for thinking they could get more). Thune said he's aiming for closer to $2 trillion in reductions, above the $1.5 trillion the House passed.
Who to watch: Sen. Ron Johnson, who's pushing for a return to pre-pandemic spending levels (a roughly $6 trillion cut). He believes he has the votes to tank the bill if it doesn't go far enough, pointing to Sens. Mike Lee, Rick Scott and Rand Paul as allies.
SNAP COST-SHARING — One of the most controversial House provisions is causing plenty of heartburn in the Senate: requiring states to cover a portion of federal food assistance costs for the first time.
Who to watch: Murkowski and fellow Alaskan Dan Sullivan, plus Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott. Agriculture Chair John Boozman hinted Republicans could face backlash from governors over 'how much of an unfunded mandate' the change could create. This comes as a new Congressional Budget Office analysis says increased Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program work requirements could kick 3.2 million people out of the program.
Other recommended reading on the biggest vote of the 119th Congress so far:
— How Johnson doused a GOP dumpster fire, from our Meredith Lee Hill
— How a Freedom Caucus revolt ended in the White House, from our Rachael Bade
— A preview of Trump's Senate megabill strategy, from our Megan Messerly and Adam Cancryn
TGIF. And we've never meant it more. Follow our live coverage at the Inside Congress blog at politico.com/congress and email your Inside Congress scribes at [e-mail], [e-mail] and [e-mail].
THE SKED
The House is out.
The Senate is out.
Next week: The House and Senate will both be on recess. The Senate will come back on June 2. The House will come back on June 3.
THE LEADERSHIP SUITE
Senators nixed three California emission standard waivers after Thune and his members effectively skirted guidance from the Government Accountability Office — backed by the chamber's parliamentarian — that the Biden-era action did not qualify for reversal using the Congressional Review Act process.
Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin joined with Republicans on one of the three disapproval resolutions, while the other two passed along party lines, our Jordain Carney and Alex Guillén report. The votes followed a late-night showdown on the Senate floor and weeks of efforts by Thune and Whip John Barrasso to pitch members wary of directly overruling the parliamentarian to move forward. In the end, Republicans avoided a direct vote against the parliamentarian by effectively kicking the question about what qualifies under a CRA back to the Senate. But Democrats were furious and have threatened short- and long-term payback. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has vowed to sue.
Schumer plots Senate Dems' megabill pushback
Top Senate Democrats will be looking to exploit GOP concerns with Republicans' megabill, even as they acknowledge they're all but powerless to stop the party-line push that needs only a simple majority to clear the chamber.
'We know that a lot of Republicans on the Senate side are squirmy,' Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on a Thursday call organized by nonprofit Families Over Billionaires. 'We're going to fight this tooth and nail.'
One thing Schumer isn't fighting: House Republicans' plan to lift the cap on the state-and-local-tax deduction to $40,000 from $10,000. 'That's better than it was before,' Schumer said.
POLICY RUNDOWN
CASS HAMMERS MEGABILL — The MAGA movement's top economic guru was not happy about the GOP's megabill passed by the House early Thursday. Oren Cass, the chief economist of the right-leaning think tank American Compass and a leading proponent of conservative economic populism among Trump allies, told our Ian Ward that he likens the bill 'to a death march through a series of choices that nobody really wanted to be making.'
Meanwhile, House Republicans' tax package would provide only a modest boost to economic growth, our Brian Faler writes of a new government analysis that's sure to disappoint GOP lawmakers.
NO SASC MEGABILL MARKUP — Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker on Thursday cast doubt on the likelihood his committee would meet to vote on the defense spending portion of the Republican megabill, our Connor O'Brien reports. The potential move to bypass an Armed Services vote signals that the Senate may pursue a more informal committee process for the bill than the House, as Republican leaders attempt to get the bill to Trump's desk by July 4.
REINING IN REINS — House Republicans' last-minute move to strip a version of the REINS Act from their party-line package was designed to give GOP senators more flexibility to work the chamber's strict rules about what can be included in reconciliation, our Amelia Davidson reports.
The House GOP's initial language would have given Congress final approval over any 'major rule that increases revenue' and expanded mechanisms for undoing existing rules. It was replaced with a new provision that would set aside money for the White House budget office to 'pay expenses associated with improving regulatory processes and analyzing and reviewing rules issued by a covered agency.'
Utah Sen. Lee, a REINS Act sponsor, told Amelia he plans to 'fight like heck' to make sure pieces of the federal regulatory overhaul end up in the final megabill.
MUSK MAKES ANOTHER HILLGRIMAGE — Department of Government Efficiency leader Elon Musk made his second visit to Capitol Hill in two days to continue discussing energy needs, artificial intelligence development and competition with China, Ben and our Anthony Adragna report.
'It's a national security issue, and we're going to fix it — and we're going to have to find a way to work bipartisan,' said House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie after Musk huddled with the panel's Republicans on Thursday. Musk met with Senate Commerce Republicans on Wednesday.
GAO RULES ON TRUMP'S EV FREEZE — The Government Accountability Office found Thursday that the Trump administration violated a 51-year-old law that blocks presidents from withholding congressionally approved funding during an electric-vehicle funding freeze, our James Bikales and Jennifer Scholtes report.
The congressional watchdog ruled the Transportation Department illegally withheld funds by suspending new obligations under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program, the $5 billion initiative from the bipartisan infrastructure law to build charging stations across the country.
COMER CALLS ON BIDEN STAFF — House Oversight Chair James Comer is demanding interviews with Joe Biden's physician and former White House officials as part of his investigation into the former president's mental decline, our Hailey Fuchs reports. The requests, dated Thursday, were sent to Biden's physician, Kevin O'Connor; former Domestic Policy Council Director Neera Tanden; former senior adviser to the first lady Anthony Bernal; former deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini; and former deputy director of Oval Office operations Ashley Williams.
Best of POLITICO Pro and E&E:
TUNNEL TALK
FALLING ASLEEP ON THE JOB — Rep. Andrew Garbarino is hardly the first person in the Capitol to take a snooze during a long night on the Hill (we certainly have, too). But he is the only lawmaker who appears to have missed the megabill vote because of it. Johnson said Garbarino 'fell asleep in the back' during Thursday's early morning vote and joked 'I'm just going to strangle him.' Still, Johnson and other Republicans are giving Garbarino kudos for his efforts to raise the SALT cap.
Also missing in action was Rep. David Schweikert, who arrived after the vote gaveled to a close. Johnson can barely afford absences like these given how narrow his margin is.
CAPITOL HILL ADVANTAGE — Retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky's comms director, Alex Moore, is the latest D.C. denizen to end up as a castaway on 'Survivor.' Moore thinks he's got a good shot at outlasting the competition: 'I work on Capitol Hill and I think that has prepared me for Survivor because one of my favorite pastimes is kissing butt,' he said in the show's new promo.
PLAN YOUR OUTFITS NOW — Seersucker Day is June 12, and it doesn't stop there: The Senate is declaring every Thursday from June 12 through the end of August as seersucker days.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Primary challengers circle Thomas Massie after Trump-defying vote, from Alex Isenstadt at Axios
'It pisses me off' — Colorado's Congressional delegation still waiting for answers on air traffic control outage, from Caitlyn Kim at Colorado Public Radio
JOB BOARD
Jett Thompson is now director of government relations at Metrea. He previously was deputy chief of staff for Rep. Stephanie Bice, and is a Sam Johnson and Mike Bishop alum.
David Sours is now a director of federal government affairs at Philip Morris International. He previously was with Rep. Buddy Carter's office and is a Phil Gingrey, Jody Hice and Drew Ferguson alum.
Levi Lall is now counsel at the DOJ's office of legal policy. He previously was counsel for Rep. Darrell Issa and the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, Artificial Intelligence and the Internet.
Atlas Crossing is adding Holly Lay as director of operations. She previously was director of operations for Rep. Diana Harshbarger.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Rep. Dina Titus … former AG Bill Barr … William Minor of DLA Piper … Daisy Martinez … Shekar Narasimhan … PhRMA's Sarah Sutton Ryan … Rachel MacKnight … Tom Heinemann … Nicholas Uehlecke … Megan McKinley … Jorge Martínez … former Interior Secretary Donald Hodel (9-0) … Dan Horning … Arianna Miskin
TRIVIA
THURSDAY'S ANSWER: Anthony Iafrate correctly answered that presidential candidate Eugene Debs received more than 900,000 votes in the 1920 election while serving a federal prison sentence for criticizing American involvement in World War I.
TODAY'S QUESTION, from Mia: Name the senator who in the 1990s brought back the Senate's Seersucker Day tradition.
The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to [e-mail].