Reinstatement of maximum pressure: What does that mean for Iran?

Al Arabiya

13-02-2025

Less than a month into President Donald Trump's second term, he reintroduced the 'Maximum Pressure' policy against Iran, aiming to increase economic and political pressure to curtail the country's nuclear ambitions and regional influence. This was a strategy that Trump implemented during his first term, and the renewed version could have even more devastating consequences for a country already facing significant challenges.
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Before Donald Trump took office, Iran was increasingly worried about the possibility of renewed US sanctions under the incoming administration. In anticipation of such actions, the Iranian government took proactive measures, including initiating nuclear talks with the EU-3 (Germany, France, and the United Kingdom) and showing an unexpected willingness to engage in diplomacy. In fact, Iran signaled openness to negotiating a new deal.
This gesture was widely seen as a tactical move on the part of the Iranian government. While it appeared as if Iran was ready for diplomacy, analysts believed this overture was primarily aimed at avoiding the economic pressure that had plagued the country during the first years of Trump's presidency. Moreover, many skeptics argued that Iran's diplomatic offer was more about buying time and weakening the potential international coalition against them, rather than a genuine willingness to resolve longstanding issues. Despite these moves, the Trump administration remained steadfast in its commitment to the 'maximum pressure' policy.
It was clear that Iran's attempt at engaging diplomatically would not deter the Trump administration. Trump and his allies, particularly within the Republican Party, are opposed to any form of negotiations with the Iranian regime. The Republican stance is rooted in the belief that Iran could not be trusted to comply with any agreement, citing violations of previous deals and the Islamic Republic's continued destabilizing behavior in the region. Thus, diplomatic efforts were sidelined, and the 'maximum pressure' campaign would move forward full force, with the promise of severe sanctions targeting all aspects of Iran's economy.
When the campaign was first implemented during Trump's first term, Iran felt the brunt of a multifaceted sanctions strategy that aimed to cut off its oil exports, freeze its access to international banking systems, and severely limit its economic transactions with the outside world. The consequences of these measures were profound, affecting the Iranian economy, the political landscape, and the social fabric of the country.
The most immediate effect of the reimposed sanctions was on Iran's economy. As the sanctions cut off Iranian oil exports, which had long been a key source of government revenue, the country's economic growth came to a screeching halt. Iran's GDP contracted significantly, and unemployment surged as businesses shuttered due to the lack of raw materials, the collapse of credit, and the shrinking pool of consumers with purchasing power. Inflation reached alarming levels, with the Iranian rial losing more than 90 percent of its value against the US dollar. This devaluation made basic goods and services, from food to medicine, significantly more expensive, leading to widespread poverty and social instability.
Politically, the sanctions not only crippled the economy but also fueled internal dissent. The Iranian government faced increasing pressure from both the public and opposition groups, who blamed the government for mismanaging the country's resources and failing to address the economic downturn. Protests broke out in major cities, with citizens taking to the streets to demand better living conditions and an end to government corruption. In some instances, the unrest took on a political nature, with demands for regime change and calls for greater freedoms. Despite heavy crackdowns on demonstrators, the unrest continued, showcasing the political fragility of the Iranian regime in the face of economic collapse.
Now, in 2025, the reimposition of the 'maximum pressure' policy finds Iran in a significantly weaker position than it was when the campaign was first launched. Several factors contribute to this vulnerability, each of which will likely exacerbate the impact of the renewed sanctions.
One of the most significant blows to Iran's regional influence came with the loss of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime, once a staunch partner in Iran's regional ambitions, was recently toppled. Syria was crucial for Iran, allowing it to establish a foothold in the Levant, supply Hezbollah in Lebanon, and exert influence in the broader Middle East. With al-Assad's fall, Iran's presence in Syria was eradicated, and the new Syrian government made it clear that it would not maintain the same alliance with Iran. This loss of an important strategic partner has stripped Iran of much of its influence in the region. On the global stage, Russia, already bogged down in its own military conflict with Ukraine, has limited capacity to assist Iran in mitigating the effects of US sanctions.
As the 'maximum pressure' policy kicks in once again, it is clear that Iran will face a far harsher set of consequences than during the first implementation of the strategy. Several factors suggest that the Iranian economy will experience even deeper declines than before, and the social and political ramifications could lead to an even more volatile situation.
The rial will likely depreciate further, and inflation could spiral out of control, making basic goods unaffordable for most of the population. Sanctions will continue to isolate Iran from the global financial system, cutting off critical revenue streams and hindering the government's ability to function effectively. The already fragile Iranian political system could be pushed to the brink of collapse. The economic downturn, coupled with the failure of the government to address the demands of the population, could spark widespread protests and calls for regime change. Political instability could grow as factions within the government jockey for power and public trust in the leadership continues to erode.
The social impact of the sanctions could be catastrophic. The public's frustration will likely reach a boiling point. The Iranian people, who have already endured years of hardship, may no longer tolerate the government's inability to provide for their basic needs. The potential for large-scale social unrest and uprisings is high, as the population reacts to both the economic pressures and the perceived failure of the government to secure the nation's future.
In conclusion, while Iran has made some attempts to change tactics and offer diplomacy in a last-ditch effort to avoid further sanctions, the 'maximum pressure' campaign has been fully reimplemented. Given Iran's weakened position due to regional losses, military strain, and global isolation, this renewed pressure is expected to have far more severe consequences than before. The Iranian government is in a much weaker position to withstand the pressure, and the likelihood of economic, political, and social crises is significantly higher. The coming months will likely see escalating tensions, with Iran facing a precarious future as it grapples with the renewed pressure from the United States.