The US fertility rate reached a new low in 2024, CDC data shows

Hamilton Spectator

4 days ago

NEW YORK (AP) — The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped to an all-time low in 2024 with less than 1.6 kids per woman, new federal data released Thursday shows.
The U.S. was once among only a few developed countries with a rate that ensured each generation had enough children to replace itself — about 2.1 kids per woman. But it has been sliding in America for close to two decades as more women are waiting longer to have children or never taking that step at all.
The new statistic is on par with fertility rates in western European countries, according to
World Bank data
.
Alarmed by recent drops, the Trump administration has taken steps to increase falling birth rates, like issuing an
executive order
meant to expand access to and reduce costs of in vitro fertilization and backing the idea of
'baby bonuses'
that might encourage more couples to have kids.
But there's no reason to be alarmed, according to Leslie Root, a University of Colorado Boulder researcher focused on fertility and population policy.
'We're seeing this as part of an ongoing process of fertility delay. We know that the U.S. population is still growing, and we still have a natural increase — more births than deaths,' she said.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the statistic for the total fertility rate with
updated birth data
for 2024.
In the early 1960s, the U.S. total fertility rate was around 3.5, but plummeted to 1.7 by 1976 after the Baby Boom ended. It gradually rose to 2.1 in 2007 before falling again, aside from a 2014 uptick. The rate in 2023 was 1.621, and inched down in 2024 to 1.599, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.
Birth rates are generally declining for women in most age groups — and that doesn't seem likely to change in the near future, said Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina.
People are marrying later and also worried about their ability to have the money, health insurance and other resources needed to raise children in a stable environment.
'Worry is not a good moment to have kids,' and that's why birth rates in most age groups are not improving, she said.
Asked about birth-promoting measures outlined by the Trump administration, Guzzo said they don't tackle larger needs like parental leave and affordable child care.
'The things that they are doing are really symbolic and not likely to budge things for real Americans,' she said.
Increase in births in new data
The CDC's new report, which is based on a more complete review of birth certificates than
provisional data
released earlier this year, also showed a 1% increase in births — about 33,000 more — last year compared to the prior year.
That brought the yearly national total to just over 3.6 million babies born.
But this is different: The provisional data indicated birth rate increases last year for women in their late 20s and 30s. However, the new report found birth rate declines for women in their 20s and early 30s, and no change for women in their late 30s.
What happened? CDC officials said it was due to recalculations stemming from a change in the U.S. Census population estimates used to compute the birth rate.
That's plausible, Root said. As the total population of women of childbearing age grew due to immigration, it offset small increases in births to women in those age groups, she said.
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