Kerala May Deliver Double-Edged Mandate In Favour Of Congress-Led UDF
According to Vote Vibe survey agency, the 2026 edition of Kerala assembly polls, a strong anti-incumbency wave, a clear desire for change is set to see the downfall of Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF.
But the Congress-UDF faces a leadership challenge. Nonconformist Shashi Tharoor is the most popular choice as Vijayan's successor. Tharoor's popularity ratings are 28.4 per cent while his party rivals for the coveted post trail badly. For instance, AICC general secretary in charge of organisation, K C Venugopal is pegged at a poor 4.2 per cent while others, namely V D Satheeshan and Sunny Joseph, have popularity ratings of 15 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. Other contenders such as Ramesh Chennithala and K Murleedharan have a support of 8.2 and 6 per cent popularity ratings.
Significantly, Vote Vibe has conducted the survey after Operation Sindoor which implies that Tharoor's unconventional stand has not undermined Thiruvananthapuram ratings within and outside the UDF-Congress circles. Tharoor was part of the government delegation that was sent abroad to propagate India's stand against terrorism.
Subsequently, some of the remarks made by Tharoor became a subject of controversy, drawing criticism from the grand old party. Tharoor went on to describe Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a 'national asset' in a write-up in a national daily.
Tharoor's popularity as indicated by Vote Vibe survey is going to pose multiple challenges for AICC Chief Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi. A number of UDF allies namely IUML, KC, RSP, CMP and KDP representatives reportedly favour Tharoor as UDF's chief ministerial face.
Some of the key findings of the survey are:
1. Strong Anti-Incumbency Wave: 47.9%
2. Strong Desire for Change: 62% want to replace their current MLA
3. Party Trust Dynamics: UDF leads with 38.9%
4. Leadership Issue: Shashi Tharoor leads (28.3%), but 27.1% are uncertain. LDF: KK Shailaja tops (24.2%), current CM Pinarayi Vijayan only 17.5%, with a massive 41.5% uncertain among LDF supporters.
5. Electoral Implications: Clear anti-establishment wave; UDF positioned as a change alternative.
In view of Vote Vibe findings, many wonder whether Kharge and Rahul Gandhi would risk their own credibility to push Venugopal to become the chief ministerial face in Kerala simply because most AICC office bearers and party leaders living in Delhi want him out as General Secretary in charge of Organisation or simply because they believe that Congress party's fortune will change once KCV is out from the national party headquarters or as a shadow of Rahul Gandhi?
Vote Vibe has also conducted an in-depth survey for Bengal stating that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee continues to enjoy significant public support, positioning her as a key player in the upcoming electoral contest. Mamata Banerjee remains the most popular choice for Chief Minister, with 41.7% support, the survey has concluded.
The author is a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. A well-known political analyst, he has written several books, including '24 Akbar Road' and 'Sonia: A Biography'. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18's views.
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First Published:
July 08, 2025, 16:57 IST
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