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Texas Flood Disaster - The Case For A Weather Radio Renaissance?

Texas Flood Disaster - The Case For A Weather Radio Renaissance?

Forbesa day ago
A member of the public looks out at flooding caused by a flash flood at the Guadalupe River in ... More Kerrville, Texas, on July 5, 2025. Rescuers were desperately searching for at least 20 girls missing from a riverside summer camp, officials said on July 5, after torrential rains caused a "catastrophic" flash flood that killed at least 24 people as it swept through south-central Texas. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP) (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)
The catastrophic flooding in the hill country of Texas is the latest U.S. extreme weather event to cause significant disruption. At the time of writing, the death toll had surpassed 50, and many people are still missing. As this tragedy unfolds, every stone should be flipped to find ways to prevent such horrific loss of life. Some experts believe the Texas floods make the case for a weather radio renaissance.
The Last Mile
As I wrote in a companion piece this weekend, the National Weather Service issued guidance and warning information in the days to hours leading up to the massive flood event. However, questions exist about whether there were challenges getting the information across what my colleague Bob Henson calls the 'last mile' to the public via emergency management and communication channels. By the way, Henson and his colleague Jeff Masters wrote a great analysis on this flood catastrophe.
Crews work to clear debris from the Cade Loop bridge along the Guadalupe River on Saturday, July 5, ... More 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP Photo/Rodolfo Gonzalez)
Though weather forecasts were within expectations of sound verification, a couple of familiar challenges emerged. First, narratives that say the 'bullseye' in rainfall was off by 20 miles so the forecast was wrong are flawed. Decisions should be made based on current capabilities. If it rains in my subdivision, but not on my tomato garden, it is still a good forecast. We encounter significant challenges conveying to the public and decision-makers that pinpoint rainfall forecasts are an illusion so area-wide probabilistic forecasting has to be employed.
Second, I have seen officials say things like, 'We are used to flooding in this region.' This is a classic case of 'normalcy bias.' I witnessed almost the exact narrative from some officials in Houston after Hurricane Harvey (2017). I co-authored a 2024 National Academy report on compound disasters. One finding was that people have benchmark storms from the past in their minds that may hindered preparation for current or future events that may be more intense, stronger or more frequent.
3 Day Rainfall Totals throught July 6, 2025.
Some early reports point to NWS staff shortages hindering handoff to the EM community, but it may be too early draw these conclusions. Other analyses have questioned the warning or alert infrastructure in what is known as 'Flash Flood Alley.' Why isn't there a more extensive real-time warning or siren system present along those river regions populated by camps and RV parks? Is it time to reconsider the location of facilities along flood-prone rivers in the Texas Hill Country?
After all, this will happen again. The region is situated in hilly terrain, receives a lot of Gulf moisture and remnant tropical systems, and climate change is, on average, boosting the intensity of rain falling from storms. I know, I know. This region had flood events naturally before climate change. It is also true that atmospheric and ocean warming makes more moisture available to storms and increasing rainfall rates. It is not "either/or." It is 'and.' Additionally, more paved surfaces increase runoff and flawed assumptions of stationarity in stormwater engineering amplify floods. But I digress.
I spoke with former NWS meteorologist Bart Hagemeyer who spent 37 years in the nation's forecast agency. Hagemeyer, who retired as the Meteorologist-In-Charge at the NWS Melbourne office, reflected on nocturnal tornado disasters in central Florida that he had been involved with in 1998 and 2007, respectively. Combined, 63 people were killed in those two events. Speaking on the Texas flooding, he told me, 'The warnings and watches were timely and what would be considered state of the art, but many people died, and that's hard. It usually boils down to how or if people got the warnings at what time and what actions did they take if they had time.' Hagemeyer has been a long-time advocate of NOAA Weather Radio. He said, 'Historically the NWS has always stressed having a plan for your family, business or whatever entity needs protecting and having at least two different ways to get warning information at all times, but especially during the night and one of those is the NOAA Weather Radio.'
So Why Weather Radios?
The Texas Tribune reported, 'All NWS flash flood warnings, including the one issued after midnight on Friday, triggered Wireless Emergency Alerts, the emergency push notification sent through cellphone towers to all wireless phones in the emergency area. Bob Fogarty, a NWS meteorologist told reporter Paul Cobler, 'That warning was updated nine times throughout Friday, each of which triggered separate alerts through the Emergency Alert System and the Wireless Emergency Alerts." Did people receive these notices. It was nighttime, so many people likely did not have immediate access to their phones. Texas Hill Country is also complex terrain, which means there are likely pockets of spotty cellular coverage.
Texas as viewed from space by a NASA MODIS instrument.
NOAA weather radios have been a staple for decades to warn people about hazardous weather, particularly at night. Officially known as NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, the NOAA website said, 'NWR is a nationwide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous weather information directly from the nearest National Weather Service office. NWR broadcasts official Weather Service warnings, watches, forecasts and other hazard information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.' I have one in my house, but like many of you, I have grown more reliant on cellphone Wireless Emergence Alerts. The NOAA website went on to say, 'NWR is provided as a public service by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the Department of Commerce…. NWR requires a special radio receiver or scanner capable of picking up the signal." NWR broadcasts on seven frequencies (162.40 to 162.55 MHz range) and up to 40 miles from the transmitter. The current listing of NOAA weather radio stations in Texas indicates that some are out of service, but the ones in Hill Country are active.
Hagemyer told me, 'It sets off a loud alert when a warning is issued for your county and has battery backup so it works whether there is power or not….. We used to put out statements in the evening reminding people to have their weather radios on before they go to bed when we expected overnight tornadoes.' He noted that most of the discussion in the wake of the Texas flooding has focused on cellphone coverage rather than having a backup plan.
Propagation maps for the NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in the Hill Country region.
The Renaissance?
NWR is specifically designed to send out an alert over the airwaves to inexpensive programmable radio receivers within seconds of the NWS meteorologist pushing the enter button on a critical warning. The map above shows the NWR propagation extent for Texas. It appears that affected regions were covered. Hagemeyer also said, "I thought of it immediately as a key tool for campground managers for backup warning receipt to implement their plans." He went on to say, 'I suspect NWR is not very sexy to talk about. When 42 people died overnight in the central Florida tornado disaster of 1998 I was on Good Morning America and CNN the next morning literally holding a NWR and touting its importance, nothing has changed to diminish its utility.'
A NOAA Weather Radio
Dave Jones is a meteorologist and CEO of Stormcenter Communications, Inc and agrees with the NWS veteran. He told me, 'I believe that every camp, camp ground, RV park and outdoor gathering place should have at least a working NOAA weather radio and a policy of passing on warnings to their guests.' He also thinks that procedures for communicating a clear evacuation plan are needed. He closed by saying, 'I've stayed in many campgrounds and they tend to have a speaker system where they make announcements. Why don't these exist everywhere? Safety first should mean SAFETY FIRST.'
KERRVILLE, TEXAS - JULY 05: Flood waters left debris including vehicles and equipment scattered in ... More Louise Hays Park on July 5, 2025 in Kerrville, Texas. Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas with multiple fatalities reported. (Photo by)
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Blame Cast After Texas Floods: Were Warnings Too Late Or Too Weak?
Blame Cast After Texas Floods: Were Warnings Too Late Or Too Weak?

Forbes

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Blame Cast After Texas Floods: Were Warnings Too Late Or Too Weak?

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday fired back at suggestions that staffing shortages at the National Weather Service or problems with emergency alert systems impacted the response to the deadly Texas floods over the July 4 holiday weekend—but Texas state officials and others have questioned their effectiveness after the disaster. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said blaming the Trump administration's cuts for ... More exacerbating the disaster was a 'despicable lie.' Getty Images One high-profile public official in Texas placed early blame on the early NWS forecasts for failing to predict the severity of the storm—'listen, everybody got the forecast from the National Weather Service,' Texas Division of Emergency Management chief W. Nim Kidd said at a press conference Friday, noting 'it did not predict the amount of rain that we saw.' A New York Times report published Saturday then detailed staffing shortages at the NWS offices in San Antonio and San Angelo, but representatives for the NWS employees union told CNN the offices had 'adequate staffing and resources.' The San Antonio office was missing a warning coordination meteorologist, a role that works with officials to send emergency alerts, after the office's 32-year veteran meteorologist took an early retirement offer earlier this year as part of the Trump administration's move to downsize the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, local station KXAN reported. The National Weather Service, however, issued alerts of increasing severity ahead of the flash flood, which included an overnight text alert warning of a "dangerous and life-threatening situation." Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem praised the NWS, but said President Donald Trump wanted to improve the NWS' warning system, telling reporters at a press conference 'we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government for many, many years.' When asked on Sunday, President Donald Trump called the situation the 'Biden setup,' but stopped short of directly blaming his predecessor for the destructive floods: 'I wouldn't blame Biden for it, either, I would just say this is a 100-year catastrophe." 'Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours,' NWS said in a statement to multiple outlets. When Did The First Warnings Go Out? The Texas Division of Emergency Management activated their emergency response resources as early as Wednesday in anticipation of heavy rainfall and potential flash floods. The NWS issued the region's first flood watch on Thursday afternoon, around 1:18 p.m. CDT, then issued a flood warning that evening at 11:42 p.m. CDT. The NWS in San Antonio also sent a text alert to cell phones in the area, warning of a "dangerous and life-threatening situation" around 1:14 a.m. CDT, Reuters reported. The NWS' Weather Prediction Center noted in a 12:26 a.m. CDT discussion that flash flooding was 'likely' over central Texas, with 'significant impacts possible,' predicting up to six inches of rain in the region. Some municipalities in the area ended up recording over 20 inches of rainfall over the course of the holiday weekend, according to data compiled by the NWS. The Guadalupe River rose over 20 feet in just three hours on July 4, according to data from NOAA. In the immediate aftermath of the July 4 floods, state officials said they were caught off guard by the severity of the storm, despite the warnings. 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There's the potential for flash flooding, but there's no expectation of a water wall of almost 30 feet high.' How Has The Trump Administration Responded? Speaking at a briefing Monday afternoon, Leavitt lashed over claims staffing shortages or policy decisions from the Trump administration contributed to the disaster. 'Unfortunately, in the wake of this once in a generation natural disaster, we have seen many falsehoods pushed by Democrats such as Senator Chuck Schumer and some members of the media. Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie, and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,' Leavitt said, praising the NWS' response and disputing reports that they were impacted by staffing shortages. 'The National Weather Service office in New Braunfels, which delivers the forecasts for Austin, San Antonio, and the surrounding area had extra staff on duty during the storm, despite claims of the contrary.' What To Watch For Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., wrote a letter (first published by Politico) to the Commerce Department's acting inspector general, urging him to open an investigation into whether staffing shortages at the NWS offices in San Antonio and San Angelo contributed to 'delays, gaps, or diminished accuracy' in forecasts or weakened weather alerts. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-Texas, also called for an investigation.. 'I don't think it's helpful to have missing key personnel from the National Weather Service not in place to help prevent these tragedies,' he said during an interview with CNN's Dana Bash on Sunday, though he didn't directly blame the tragedy on staffing. 'I don't want to sit here and say conclusively that that was the case, but I do think that it should be investigated.'

Authorities will wait to address questions about Texas floods, as search for the dead goes on
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President Trump said Sunday he has signed a disaster declaration for the recent deadly flooding in Texas. 'I just signed a Major Disaster Declaration for Kerr County, Texas, to ensure that our Brave First Responders immediately have the resources they need,' Trump said in a Truth Social post Sunday morning. 'These families are enduring an unimaginable tragedy, with many lives lost, and many still missing. The Trump Administration continues to work closely with State and Local Leaders.' 'Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem was on the ground yesterday with Governor Greg Abbott, who is working hard to help the people of his Great State,' the president added. 'Our incredible U.S. Coast Guard, together with State First Responders, have saved more than 850 lives. GOD BLESS THE FAMILIES, AND GOD BLESS TEXAS!' According to The Associated Press, at least 67 people have died due to the flooding. A significant portion of central Texas is facing a Flood Watch, Flash Flood Warning or Flood Warning, according to the National Weather Service. Fifty-nine people have died due to the flooding in Kerr County, Texas, the county's sheriff said Sunday, according to an update on the county website. Thirty-eight of those killed were adults and 21 were children, the sheriff also said. In a post to the social platform X Sunday, Abbott thanked Trump in response to his earlier Truth Social post. 'Thank you, @realDonaldTrump, for your dedication to Texas. Collaboration between our state, local, and federal partners is critical to our state's recovery,' Abbott said in his post. 'Thank you to our brave first responders working around the clock to find missing Texans,' he added. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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