Vietnam & Bangladesh to drive cotton trade growth through 2034: Report
Vietnam and Bangladesh will lead the rise in raw cotton imports, with annual growth rates of 2.8 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively. Their fast-growing textile sectors are driving demand for imported fibre, helping to sustain strong global trade flows. China, meanwhile, will remain the world's largest cotton importer, with import levels projected to stay steady at 2.9 million tonnes.
Vietnam and Bangladesh are set to lead global cotton trade growth over the next decade, with rising mill use driving import demand. World cotton trade is projected to reach 12.3 million tonnes by 2034. Brazil and US will dominate exports, each holding around 30 per cent. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 14 per cent, though increasing domestic mill activity may gradually reduce its net export share.
Moreover, export competition will intensify between the United States and Brazil, both expected to account for approximately 30 per cent of global cotton exports by 2034. Brazil has already surpassed the US as the top exporter in the 2023–24 season, buoyed by significant investments in port infrastructure and logistics. Brazilian exports are set to grow by 2.6 per cent annually, reaching 3.6 million tonnes by 2034—on par with the US, the report added.
Sub-Saharan Africa will also remain a major exporter, projected to supply 14 per cent of global cotton exports by 2034. The region's shipments are expected to grow at 1.1 per cent per annum, with over 80 per cent of production destined for export, mainly to South and Southeast Asia.
However, countries like Ethiopia and Benin are seeing rising domestic mill use, supported by foreign direct investment, government backing, and preferential trade access such as the European Union's Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). This may gradually shift the region's role from a raw cotton exporter to a more integrated textile producer in the long term.
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