CBO's New Tax and Tariff Estimates Offer Trump a Tentative Win
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office handed Republicans a major political talking point Wednesday, with projections that showed the possibility for President Donald Trump's tariffs to bring in more federal revenue than will be lost by his giant tax-cut plan.
One notable caveat: the CBO assessment assumes that tariffs remain at very high levels for the next decade — something administration officials have not explicitly said is their intention. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that Trump 'uses tariffs to negotiate.'
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Forbes
13 minutes ago
- Forbes
How Stablecoins Are Changing Global Finance
Stable Coin. Stablecoins Cryptocurrencies Stable Market Price Value Coin Currency. The U.S. Senate has taken a major step toward regulating stablecoins by advancing the GENIUS Act—a bill that could reshape the digital finance landscape. Still under discussion, the legislation proposes strict reserve and transparency rules for issuers and signals growing government interest in crypto oversight. Stablecoins are crypto tokens that are typically pegged to the U.S. dollar. They allow users to transact within blockchain ecosystems without the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies. Today, two clear leaders dominate the market. Yet, while Washington begins drafting policy, stablecoins have already found product-market fit in places far beyond Capitol Hill. The global use of stablecoins is growing steadily, regardless of whether the market is in a bull or bear phase. In Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and among crypto-native startups, they've quietly emerged as a preferred tool for payments, payroll, and preserving value in unstable economies. So what does this bottom-up adoption mean for the future of global finance? Are stablecoins here to stay, or will they be replaced by Central Bank Digital Currencies? And if they are here to stay, how to ride this trend? According to DefiLlama, the current market capitalization of stablecoins is around $250 billion, which is still a small share of the global M2 money supply, approximately 1%. In other words, we're still early. To understand where the growth might come from, it's worth examining what stablecoins are used for—and why they've become so popular. Stablecoins market capitalization. The first is USDT (Tether), the largest stablecoin by market capitalization. Interestingly, Tether has also emerged as one of the most financially efficient companies in the world on a per-employee basis. According to a tweet published by Avichal Garg, co-founder of Electric Capital, the company generated an estimated $85.6 million in profit per employee in 2024: Profit per Employee (USD) vs. Company The second major player is USDC, issued by U.S.-regulated firm Circle. The company went public on June 5, under the ticker CRCL, with its stock surging over 200% on its first day of trading—pushing its market capitalization above $20 billion, according to Barron's. These two companies currently dominate the stablecoin space. Others worth mentioning include: • USDS (formerly DAI), which started as a decentralized stablecoin but has become only partially decentralized due to its large holdings of U.S. Treasuries and USDC. • USD1, a politically charged entrant tied to Donald Trump's network, which has generated some discomfort among Democratic lawmakers. Rep. Maxine Waters (D–Calif.), the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, voiced strong objections during a joint hearing on digital assets, stating: 'I object to this joint hearing because of the corruption of the President of the United States and his ownership of crypto and his oversight of all of the agencies.' Stablecoins are enjoying instant product-market fit: everyone needs access to crypto dollars — a version of the U.S. dollar that can be easily converted back to fiat, yet offers several advantages over traditional USD. While much of the attention on stablecoins focuses on regulation and market cap, their real momentum comes from how they're being used: The most obvious example of stablecoin usage is international payments. Sending U.S. dollars across borders with the traditional banking system typically involves SWIFT. Banks charge between $5 and $50 per transaction, often around $20, regardless of the transfer amount. That means sending $1,000 could cost users up to 2–5% in fees. In addition, the SWIFT transfers can take several business days to settle. Compared to transferring the same amount via stablecoins, even in the worst case, fees might only be a few dollars, and the transaction typically settles within minutes. That's at least 10 times cheaper and potentially 100 times faster. There's also another major benefit: users avoid capital controls, currency conversion hurdles, and heavy compliance bottlenecks, particularly relevant when sending money from or to countries with restrictive financial systems. The second use case — using stablecoins as a means of payment — is less advanced, largely due to regulatory inertia. Governments generally want citizens to transact in their local currencies, and stablecoins challenge that sovereignty. The lack of clarity discourages businesses from accepting them, especially given the lingering memory of Operation Choke Point, when certain industries were unofficially cut off from banking services. Despite the current U.S. administration's relatively crypto-friendly stance, the stablecoin bill GENIUS Act has yet to pass through Congress. This uncertainty keeps most merchants and payment providers on the sidelines. Once clear legislation is enacted, trust in stablecoins like USDT and USDC will likely surge. As for CBDCs, a concept that is often met with skepticism in the cryptocurrency community, the need for a government-backed digital dollar seems increasingly unnecessary. According to U.S. Treasury International Capital data, Tether's treasury holdings alone rival those of sovereign investors like Germany or Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Circle's portfolio is comparable to that of Thailand or Sweden. With such significant exposure to U.S. debt and growing political opposition to CBDCs—including campaign promises from Donald Trump to block their development—stablecoins may have already secured their place as the preferred digital dollar infrastructure in the United States. The third major use case—decentralized finance —is where stablecoins are already thriving. They serve as the foundational currency for DeFi applications, enabling lending, borrowing, swapping, yield farming, and more—all without centralized intermediaries. The functionality mirrors traditional finance but with key advantages: it's global, permissionless, and often more efficient. According to Dune Analytics data in the DeFi Report 2024–2025 , approximately 151 million wallet addresses interacted with DeFi protocols in 2024. While this figure likely includes duplicates, it provides a useful upper bound for estimating user activity. By comparison, World Bank data from 2021 shows that 4.6 to 4.9 billion people used traditional banking services globally. This also underscores the early stage of adoption of DeFi. But, once frameworks are established, DeFi usage could accelerate rapidly. Following these three cases, it's fair to say that stablecoins are here to stay. And this may only be the beginning: as crypto infrastructure intersects with artificial intelligence, stablecoins could enable AI agents to transact autonomously, unlocking programmable, real-time finance. So, how can investors position themselves to benefit from this trend? There are many ways, some of them look obvious, like buying CRCL as it has become a public company, or investing in Coinbase stocks (COIN), a company which is steadily growing its own layer two DeFi ecosystem. Some are more complicated, like finding companies to invest in that adopt stablecoins in their operations — for payments, payroll, or international transfers — and which are likely to scale faster than their peers, thanks to lower costs and global reach. Check Stripe, PayPal, and Deel as examples. On the decentralized side, assuming a favorable regulatory framework materializes, in a next way of adoption, DeFi applications could rapidly pull users away from traditional banks. In that case, there is significant upside in owning tokens or equity in platforms like Uniswap, Aave, or even Hyperliquid — all of which are well-positioned to become foundational players in the next generation of financial infrastructure. Derivative DEX trading volumes. But don't forget the risks to watch. Transformation won't come without resistance. The banking lobby remains one of the most powerful political forces in the world, and it's unlikely to welcome a shift toward 'magic internet money' without a fight. Regulatory headwinds, political gridlock, and coordinated opposition from legacy institutions are all real risks investors should keep in mind. But we know that fortune, at least in markets driven by emerging technologies, often favors the brave.
Politico
14 minutes ago
- Politico
GOP lawmakers stick with Trump in messy Musk breakup
Amid the messy ongoing divorce between the president and the world's richest man, this much is already clear: Donald Trump has sole custody of the House GOP. Republican lawmakers are making clear that, if forced to choose, it's Trump — not Elon Musk — they're sticking by as leaders race to contain the fallout for their 'one big, beautiful bill.' Even Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who helms a House panel inspired by Musk's Department of Government Efficiency initiative, blasted Musk's public attacks on Trump as 'unwarranted' and criticized his 'lashing out on the internet.' 'America voted for Donald Trump on Nov. 4, 2024 — every single vote mattered just as much as the other,' Greene said in a brief interview. 'And whether it was $1 that was donated or hundreds of millions of dollars, the way I see it, everybody's the same.' Like many Americans, GOP members watched Thursday's online exchange with a sense of car-crash-like fascination. Many shared that they hoped Musk and Trump could somehow patch things up. But many — including some of the former DOGE chief's biggest backers on Capitol Hill — were wholly unsurprised to see the billionaire suddenly cut down to size after months of chatter about who was really calling the shots at the White House. 'It's President Trump, not President Musk,' said one lawmaker granted anonymity to speak frankly about prevailing opinions inside the House GOP. Speaker Mike Johnson made no secret of where he stands on the public breakup. He told reporters Friday that he hoped the two men 'reconcile' and that it would be 'good for the party and the country if all this worked out.' But in the nearly same breath, Johnson quickly reaffirmed his allegiance to the president and issued a warning to Musk. 'Do not doubt, do not second-guess and don't ever challenge the president of the United States, Donald Trump,' Johnson said. 'He is the leader of the party. He is the most consequential political figure of this generation and probably the modern era. And he's doing an excellent job for the people.' Other House Republicans concurred with the speaker's assessment Friday, even as they faced the looming threat of Musk targeting them in the upcoming midterms or at least pulling back on his political giving after pouring more than $250 million into the 2024 election on behalf of Trump and the GOP ticket. 'I think it's unfortunate,' said Rep. Tim Moore (R-N.C.) of the breakup. 'But Donald Trump was elected by a majority of the American people.' Rep. Warren Davidson of Ohio, who was one of only two Republicans to oppose Trump's megabill in the House last month, also made clear he stood with the president over Musk. 'He does not have a flight mode — he's fight, fight, fight … and he's been pretty measured,' Davidson said of Trump. 'I think Elon Musk looked a little out of control. And hopefully he gets back and grounded.' GOP leaders who have spent weeks cajoling their members to vote for the sprawling domestic-policy bill hardly hid their feelings as Musk continued to bash the legislation online, even calling on Americans to call their representatives in an effort to tank it. 'Frankly, it's united Republicans even more to go and defend the great things that are in this bill — and once it's passed and signed into law by August, September, you're going to see this economy turning around like nothing we've ever seen,' Majority Leader Steve Scalise said in a brief interview Friday. 'I'll be waiting for all those people who said the opposite to admit that they were wrong,' Scalise added. 'But I'm not expecting that to happen.' A few Republicans are still trying to walk a fine line by embracing both Trump and Musk — especially some fiscal hawks who believe Musk is right about the megabill adding trillions to the national debt. 'I think Elon has some valid points about the bill, concerns that myself and a handful of others were working to address up until the passage of it,' Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas) said in an interview. 'I think that'll make the bill stronger. I think it'll help our standing with the American people.' Both Trump and Musk 'have paid a tremendous price personally for this country,' Cloud added. 'And them working together is certainly far better for the country.' Notably, House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, a key Musk ally on the Hill, declined to engage Thursday when asked about the burgeoning feud. Instead, the Ohio Republican responded by praising the megabill Musk had moved to tank. Democrats, for their part, watched the unfolding and public breakup with surprise and a heavy dose of schadenfreude. 'There are no good guys in a fight like this,' Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). 'You just eat some popcorn and watch the show.'
Fox News
14 minutes ago
- Fox News
WNBA should investigate Brittney Griner video after probing false claims about Fever fans, governor says
In just the first week of the WNBA season, Caitlin Clark found herself in more wars of words. A day after she and the Indiana Fever slaughtered Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky, the WNBA began investigating reports of "hateful comments" toward Reese by Fever fans that were ultimately "not substantiated." When the WNBA announced the claims were not true, U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., called on the WNBA to issue an apology to Fever fans and Indiana residents. It is a sentiment Indiana Gov. Mike Braun agreed with during a recent interview with Fox News Digital. "I'm one that absolutely has zero tolerance for bigotry and bullying and all the stuff that comes along with that whole discussion. When comments are made that don't make sense … when it's out of line, you need to acknowledge it. So, I agree with Sen. Banks there, and I hope that there's not any of that there," Braun said. Although the WNBA investigated reports of verbal attacks against Reese, the WNBA has not investigated a viral video of Brittney Griner in which many people on social media believe she was calling Clark "trash" and a "f---ing white girl." The video of Griner emerged shortly after Griner fouled out against the Fever on a questionable foul during a game in which Clark and Griner, who play two separate positions, were hardly near each other. Others say Griner was actually calling the referee or the call that was made "trash," adding it was a "f---ing whack call." In any case, the video has been a hot topic online, and the WNBA has not acted. Braun said if the WNBA investigated what were determined to be false claims of hateful speech against Reese, it should look into Griner. "I don't think there's any place for it. I think Caitlin has kind of done things for the league itself where it ought to be embraced. I think, if anything, it's showcased the talent across that league. You ought to be grateful for it, not throwing around comments that might indicate otherwise," Braun said. "Yes, I think if there was some look into what Angel Reese did, I think it would be good to put that to rest as well. And I hope that exits the stage, because it's no good regardless of where it's coming from." Braun admitted he "didn't pay quite as much attention" to women's basketball before Clark got to his state, "but I have a lot recently." "She sells out the Gainbridge arena just like the Pacers do, and her team," Braun said. "And the more I watch the games, they're as competitive, in many cases more so, in terms of the scrap and the talent. We're lucky that Caitlin ended up in the basketball state. She has rekindled a lot of that spirit at both the college and high school levels. Caitlin has been a wonderful addition, and she's in the right state. "Maybe that was destiny." Follow Fox News Digital's sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
