John Swinney ‘could be in danger of losing his Holyrood constituency seat' if people vote tactically
SWINNERS & LOSERS John Swinney 'could be in danger of losing his Holyrood constituency seat' if people vote tactically
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JOHN Swinney could be in danger of losing his Holyrood constituency seat if people vote tactically, a top pollster has claimed.
The First Minister is facing a renewed challenge from veteran Tory Murdo Fraser in Perthshire North next year.
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The First Minister could be in danger of losing his Holyrood constituency seat if people vote tactically, a top pollster claims
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Analysis professional Mark Diffley thinks if voters snub Reform UK and Labour and cast ballots for Mr Fraser then Mr Swinney's 4,053 majority could be in jeopardy
Credit: jo hanley 2020
And analysis professional Mark Diffley reckons if voters snub Reform UK and Labour and cast ballots for Mr Fraser then Mr Swinney's 4,053 majority could be in peril.
Mr Diffley, of the Diffley Partnership, said: 'Tactical voting is a possibility but the Labour and Lib Dem vote shares in this seat in 2021 were negligible.
'Reform might expect to do well here and are likely to eat into Tory votes which makes the job easier for the SNP.
'The SNP took almost 50 per cent of the vote in 2021 and polls indicate that their vote share has fallen by around 15 points since, which might bring this seat into play.'
Mr Fraser will be taking on Mr Swinney for a seventh time.
He polled 15,807 votes compared to the First Minister's 19,860 in 2021, while Labour got 2,324.
The Tory challenger said: 'Nigel Farage has already said he isn't worried about giving the SNP another five years in power. That should terrify every supporter of the Union living in John Swinney's backyard.
'If pro-UK voters in Perthshire want to deliver a verdict on the SNP leader being at the heart of 18 years of nationalist failure, then they must vote for me.
'I will be taking that message to local voters who are sick and tired of the SNP's continual focus on fringe issues, rather than delivering on the real priorities of the people.'
Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay has said Mr Fraser has a 'realistic' chance of winning the seat.
In his conference speech last month, he said: 'The SNP will do everything to protect John Swinney but those seats can be in play for us. Wouldn't that be some prize? Swinney paying the price for his abysmal record.'
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But even if Mr Swinney loses the constituency he is still likely to be elected as a regional list MSP.
Mr Diffley said Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar will be hoping his party's 'unexpected' win by new MSP Davy Russell in last month's Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election has boosted their chances of forming a government.
He added: 'The SNP is far less popular than it was at the last Holyrood election and polls show low support for the government's performance across key policy issues.
'But Labour has not capitalised on that and the national polls point, at this stage, to the likelihood of the SNP being re-elected next year.
'Many voters are disillusioned with both the UK and Scottish governments which partly explains the rise of Reform and the likelihood that they will do well next year.'
Reform and Labour confirmed they will be standing in every seat but their candidates for Perthshire North have yet to be announced.
A Scottish Labour spokeswoman said: 'Scotland has been badly failed by both the SNP and the Tories, and Scottish Labour will be fighting to win in every part of the country.
'Only Scottish Labour can get rid of this incompetent SNP government and deliver a new direction.'
The SNP did not respond to our request for comment.
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