Hollywood loves a comeback story: What the 2025 box-office rebound means for summer blockbusters

CNN

4 hours ago

The movie industry hasn't caught many breaks in recent years, even after rebounding from the Covid-19 pandemic. Studios were faced with a writers' strike, blockbusters that fell well below expectations and dilemmas over when to release movies into theaters before having them stream online.
The domestic box office continued a trend of getting the year off to a slow start, as January lacked a strong carryover movie from the holiday season or a surprise audience pleaser, renewing fears the industry faces long-term financial woes.
The box office for January 1 to April 3 was down 13% compared to the same time last year, which in turn was down 7.6% compared with 2023.
'It's not like a hard-and-fast rule that the first three months are typically slow. Sometimes they can be huge if you have a big holdover movie and a couple of breakout hits,' said Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst at Comscore.
The first major release of 2025 was Marvel's 'Captain America: Brave New World,' which opened in February to more than $100 million over the four-day Presidents Day holiday weekend, only to see its earnings plunge 68% in the second week.
Things didn't improve much from there. In March, the box office was down nearly 50% compared with the same month last year, according to Comscore data. Ticket sales certainly weren't buoyed by Disney's 'Snow White,' which opened to a meager $43 million amid polarizing reactions about casting and politics.
But then came the turnaround.
April brought a wide variety of movies that drew in nostalgic audiences and moviegoers following positive buzz.
Carrying much of the load for the month was Warner Bros. Pictures. The studio's 'A Minecraft Movie' debuted to nearly $163 million, while Ryan Coogler's highly acclaimed 'Sinners' has exceeded expectations with over $275 million in domestic sales. Warner Bros. Discovery is the parent company of CNN.
Following the strong performance from 'Minecraft,' the industry had a record Memorial Day weekend that saw the box office up 22% compared with 2024.
It was led by Disney's live-action 'Lilo & Stitch' remake opening to a record $183 million. 'Lilo & Stitch' has so far grossed over $380 million domestically and may soon overtake 'Minecraft' ($423.9 million) as this year's biggest earner. Other May winners include the big-budget Disney/Marvel movie 'Thunderbolts' ($189 million), Paramount's 'Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,' ($173 million) and Warner Bros.' 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' ($133 million).
The momentum has carried over into June with 'How to Train Your Dragon.' Universal's live-action remake has already grossed nearly $135 million since opening last weekend.
The overall box office is closing in on $4 billion for all of 2025 — an 18% gain compared to this time last year, according to Comscore data.
2023 marked the first post-pandemic year to earn more than $4 billion between the first Friday of May and Labor Day, according to Comscore.
Greg Durkin, founder of entertainment research firm Enact Insights, attributes the industry's comeback to a rise in quality films.
And high-potential movies are about to be released. Warner Bros. Pictures' 'F1' and Universal Pictures' 'M3GAN 2.0' are set to open Friday. July will include Universal Pictures' 'Jurassic World Rebirth,' and Warner Bros.' 'Superman,' which Durkin said will be 'tremendous' hits at the box office. He added that Disney's July release of 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' will also do well.
''Superman' and 'Fantastic Four' and maybe to a degree 'Jurassic World,' will be big players' to nearly reach $4 billion this summer, said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder and owner of Box Office Theory.
'We're not selling Frosted Flakes or Coca-Cola … This is a product that reinvents itself every week,' said Daniel Loria, editorial director at Boxoffice Pro.
Movies have 'fortunately' connected better with audiences, but it's still a 'risky business,' Loria added.
Having a diverse movie slate can be helpful. Since April, moviegoers have had the choice of children and family movies ('How to Train Your Dragon' and 'Lilo & Stitch'), action flicks ('Mission Impossible — The Final Reckoning'), horror ('Sinners') and romantic comedies ('Materialists').
'The lineup goes on hot and cold streaks. Something can look good on paper but not work in release, and vice versa,' said box office analyst David A. Gross, who publishes FranchiseRe.
Gross noted that even superhero movies, such as 'Captain America' and 'Thunderbolts,' haven't consistently performed well compared to pre-pandemic years.
And while April and May helped this year's box office bounce back from a slow start, June will be down about 6.5% compared to last year and down almost 26% compared with the pre-pandemic average, according to estimates from Gross.
'The 'recovery' compared with last year is slipping, so it's not time to pop the champagne just yet,' Gross said.
In times of broader political and economic uncertainty, Americans have shown they will pull away from expensive commitments and seek smaller pleasures. For some, that means trading in vacations and indulging in less expensive purchases.
'It's pretty cheap to go to a movie, relative to going to rent a house and get on a flight, or rent a car,' said Durkin. 'You still need that escapism.'
The movie theater is a social experience, Durkin said, which makes it fulfilling and worthwhile.
In Clarksdale, Mississippi — the town which inspired the setting of 'Sinners' — a special screening was hosted to allow locals in the theater-less town to watch the film together.
Moviegoers are still 'price sensitive,' Loria said. Although premium offerings can price a single ticket as high as $25 in cities like New York and Los Angeles, theater chains such as AMC offer discount screenings on Tuesdays. On July 9, AMC will start offering 50% discounts on Wednesdays.
'It's a relatively inexpensive way to escape the outside world for a couple of hours,' said Dergarabedian, adding that PG-rated films have been 'booming' as families head to theaters.
'Looking at 2025 in a vacuum — what a great recovery,' he said. 'It's all product-based. It's the movies that determine the box office, not the month.'