Will Morgan Wallen's Hot 100 Deluge Prevent Teddy Swims From Setting an All-Time Chart Record?

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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 31, we look at the chances of 'Lose Control' to set a record for chart endurance – if it can fend off a swarm of new Morgan Wallen chart hits, one of which may debut at No. 1.
Teddy Swims, 'Lose Control' (Warner): It's been a staggering 91 weeks and counting on the Hot 100 for Teddy Swims' crossover soul ballad 'Lose Control.' Since the song debuted on the chart in August of 2023 (!!), it's topped both the weekly chart (in March 2024) and the year-end Hot 100 (for all 2024), won a pair of Billboard Music Awards, and even been succeeded by another pair of top 40 hits in 'The Door' and 'Bad Dreams.' But all the while, 'Lose Control' has lingered on the chart, scarcely losing momentum – and this week (on the chart dated May 24), spends a record-extending 62nd week inside the top 10, holding at No. 7.
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This week also sees 'Lose Control' tie Glass Animals' 'Heat Waves' for the longest total stay on the entire chart – and given its still-lofty position, it would seem a near-foregone conclusion that it would go on to break that mark next frame with a 92nd week. Complicating things, however, is the man who's been most unmissable on the Billboard charts this decade: country superstar Morgan Wallen, whose new album I'm the Problem was released on Friday (May 16). Seven tracks from the album already appear on the Hot 100 this week – five of them in the top 25 – but the set's full 37-track drop could add as many as 30 extra songs to the mix, some of them likely quite high.
Could the new Wallen swarm really push 'Lose Control' all the way off the chart? Well, it only would have to push it out of the top 25 – since the song has already spent over a year on the chart, Billboard's rules about recurrent entries on the Hot 100 mean that it would drop off the listing entirely if it dropped to No. 26 or lower. But since 'Control' is still No. 7 this week, that would still take a mighty showing from Wallen's latest – likely requiring about half the 37-track album to outperform it on the chart next week. A tall ask, and with the relatively steady radio and streaming support for 'Lose Control,' it might not end up having too much of a Problem with Wallen after all.
Morgan Wallen, 'Just in Case,' 'What I Want' (with Tate McRae), 'I'm the Problem' (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Even if he doesn't crowd Teddy Swims out of the Hot 100 top 25 next week, Wallen should launch his fair share of entries into the top 10 – including a couple that may be contending for No. 1. 'Just in Case,' which debuted at No. 3 in April and sits at No. 11 this week, may be the frontrunner, as it has roosted at No. 2 on both Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music's real-time chart for most of the week following I'm the Problem's release — and is also growing significantly in radio play, as Wallen's latest single being promoted to country radio was up to 9.4 million in airplay audience for the first four days of this tracking week (May 16-19), according to Luminate, after debuting at No. 47 on the most recent Radio Songs listing.
It should receive some serious competition from albummate 'What I Want,' however – Wallen's duet with Tate McRae, marking the first time he's sung with a female artist on an officially released track. While the brand-new collab is unsurprisingly slower-going on radio in its first week, it also is the lone song ranking above 'Just in Case' on both Spotify and Apple Music this week. If it debuts in the Hot 100's top two, it will mark the highest-ranking hit of Tate McRae's career – with 'Greedy' holding her previous high-water mark with its No. 3 peak in early 2024.
Also not to be counted out: the I'm the Problem title track, which is currently the highest-charting of Wallen's eight Hot 100 entries, rating at No. 6 in its 15th week on the chart (after debuting at No. 2 back in February). The song also ranks in the top five on both the aforementioned DSP charts, while remaining Wallen's top-performing song on radio – likely topping Country Airplay for a sixth week next frame, and holding in the top 15 on the all-format Radio Songs ranking.
Kendrick Lamar & SZA, 'Luther' (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG) & Alex Warren, 'Ordinary' (Atlantic): The two songs that have been duking it out for No. 1 on the Hot 100 the past couple weeks – with 'Luther' thus far reigning victorious – will likely find themselves on the undercard for the Hot 100 title fight next week following the waterfall of Wallen entries. However, as those I'm the Problem songs inevitably recede some in week two, Alex Warren and Kendrick Lamar & SZA could be back in the main event the week after. In the meantime, 'Ordinary' should continue to close the all-important airplay gap, as it is up 21% in radio audience for the first four days of the tracking week (May 16-19) to 20.9 million, while 'Luther' is down 3% to 35 million.
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