Best arm talent in program history? What quarterback Fernando Mendoza can bring to Indiana football

Indianapolis Star

2 days ago

The buzz around Indiana football changed from can it to will it get back to the College Football Playoff after it landed quarterback Fernando Mendoza out of the transfer portal.
Of course, Mendoza's commitment came four days after the Hoosiers suffered a loss at Notre Dame, but that's how quickly a news cycle can change. Other factors, including retaining players and transfer portal additions, strengthened IU's case for a repeat trip.
But Mendoza was rated the No. 4 quarterback and 12th prospect in the portal per On3's industry rankings. He has good size at 6 foot 5, 225 pounds and NFL draft scouts like his potential, and are curious how it will translate to a tough Big Ten schedule.
IndyStar IU insider Zach Osterman and Herald-Times reporter Michael Niziolek huddled with IndyStar assistant sports editor Aaron Ferguson to discuss Mendoza's impact on IU football. Here is their conversation.
Ferguson: How does the addition of Fernando Mendoza at quarterback change the IU offense? In terms of talent, has IU had a better QB?
Osterman: On pure arm talent, Mendoza might rank among the best in program history. There are others with a say in that debate (Michael Penix chiefly among them), but it probably isn't unfair to expect Mendoza to arrive at something approaching an all-league level on talent alone. The question will be how it's marshaled.
He struggled with sacks last year, and Curt Cignetti has suggested one of his next steps is trusting this protection more than what consistently failed him at Cal. He is, CFP debates notwithstanding, playing in a tougher conference now, albeit without the exhausting travel concerns. And there's expectation here — fair or not, he's traded in two 6-6 seasons at Cal for a program fresh off the best season in its history. How he handles that pressure is worth asking. This is probably overegging the pudding a bit, but it's not unfair to say he still has some things to prove here.
Niziolek: The biggest surprise during spring camp was how much Mendoza's teammates talked about his mobility. According to Cignetti, the Hoosiers moved the pocket just .25% of the time last year. That makes sense given that we now know Kurtis Rourke was playing on a torn ACL, but that's where fans will see the most significant difference in the offense. Cignetti is going to move Mendoza's launch point around to put pressure on opposing defenses. Indiana's read-option plays will be more effective as well since Mendoza will be more of genuine threat to pull the ball down and run.
As for his arm talent, he's getting draft buzz for a reason, but Rourke set a high bar. He had one of the best statistical seasons as a passer in program history and graded out at an elite level on attempts of 10-plus yards, per PFF. Don't overlook the fact that he had five years of experience (three as a starter) before arriving in Bloomington. Mendoza has a higher ceiling as a NFL prospect, but like Zach said, he still has to put it all together.
Osterman: I'm interested in the mobility, and how IU uses it. I think Mike's point is a good one that mobility is more than just pulling the ball and running. It's also being able to shift the pocket and the point of delivery, which can disrupt a pass rush or confuse a secondary. Cignetti has shown a consistent ability to build a system that adapts to the quarterback, rather than the other way around. Obviously Mendoza has got to show a consistent ability to be accurate on the move, and his line needs to be able to block those schemes, but that's one of the potential wrinkles I'm curious to track through the first month of the season.
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Ferguson: Longtime NFL draft analyst Steve Muench, co-host on the "Todd McShay Podcast," made a point last month that Curt Cignetti has done this time and again alongside offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan: bringing in a one-year quarterback and delivering results. Muench brought up how they did it at James Madison transitioning to Division I and had the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year two years in a row, and then Kurtis Rourke at IU last year. What is it about Cignetti and Shanahan being so successful? And where does Mendoza fit into this string of success as maybe the QB with the most cache they've landed?
Osterman: Cignetti will tell you it goes further back, to include success he had with quarterbacks at Elon and beforehand. The undercurrent strength pumping through the whole thing is that the system is built to adapt.
I got a chance to talk to Cignetti for a story that will come closer to the season (teaser!) about this, and one of his most fundamental approaches to offense was (as he described it), to "build around the quarterback." Let their strengths guide the way they're used. Don't make the player come to the system. Build the system to be able to accommodate the player.
That's obviously easier said than done, and probably something plenty of coaches would love to do in theory. But Cignetti's track record and virtually every level of football has now proven it, and I think it's fair to give him benefit of the doubt again, especially with a 3,000-yard passer with some pretty obvious physical gifts and a Power Four track record.
Niziolek: I think it speaks just as much to the work Cignetti and his offensive staff of identifying the quarterbacks they project will work in their system. Cignetti watches countless hours of film for a reason — I'm guessing he watched every one of Mendoza's throws from last season — to ensure the quarterbacks they bring in have shown they can make all the throws and run an offense, especially since they don't get a ton of time (in most cases) to develop those transfers.
Cignetti has also surrounded his recent quarterbacks with a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball to set them up for success. Mendoza will benefit from that as well with IU's experience on the offensive line and talent at the skill positions.
Osterman: The line is the biggest piece of this equation outside the player himself, to me. We need to see it functioning in games, of course, but IU's work rebuilding its offensive front (and keeping a couple core pieces together too) this offseason immediately puts Mendoza in a better situation. It seems like the staff still sees him learning to trust that protection, but if you overlay his production plus potential onto these skill groups, and then give him more time/better protection, that's where I think the optimism really starts.
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Ferguson: Is his relationship with his brother overplayed or properly played? As much as nobody will want to admit it, does Fernando's play translate into what's next for Alberto, whether at IU or elsewhere?
Niziolek: I think their relationship certainly played at least a small role in Fernando landing up in Bloomington. Alberto vouched for the staff, and offered his brother insight into the offense from a trusted source. It worked the other way as well since Cignetti and his staff was more familiar with Fernando and already had a relationship with the family.
Beyond that, I'm not sure how much his play will impact Alberto's future. Fernando could make the jump to the NFL after a successful season, but that doesn't necessarily pave the way for Alberto to get the job. His skill set will be evaluated on its own, and IU will always weigh its option in the portal if there's a talent that stands out.
Osterman: Yeah, I don't think one affects the other terribly. Alberto is already clearly advancing within the system, given he appears in line to be IU's QB2 this season ahead of a more veteran competitor. It's worth pointing out, too, Alberto Mendoza was a target for this staff predating their time at Indiana, and he was committed with them at James Madison before flipping to the Hoosiers. I think Cignetti and his coaches have always liked Alberto on his own merits, and by outward appearance he's done nothing to change their minds since.
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Ferguson: Analysts like to bring up Fernando's sacks when he was at Cal, so I think Zach hit on a good point earlier. Which leads to this: Presuming he's healthy, what are realistic expectations for Mendoza this season? Is he the next record-breaker, can he get IU to the playoff, or even win a CFP game?
Osterman: The number I can't get past is one I've cited before. He went from 24.3 pass attempts per interception as a redshirt freshman to 64.3 as a redshirt sophomore. That's despite the sacks and a significant increase in pass volume.
That hints at a level of efficiency which, if plugged into an offense capable of some of what we saw from Indiana last season, could yield another season when we're reaching for record books to contextualize Mendoza's accomplishments. Another CFP push is going to require more than just good quarterback play but it's reasonable, I think, to believe Mendoza can deliver performances strong enough to put Indiana in that position again.
Niziolek: I think 3,000 yards passing and 20 touchdowns are reasonable benchmarks for Mendoza given the fact that IU will face a tougher schedule with some really challenging road games. While it wouldn't break any records, there are only three other quarterbacks in program history who reached both milestones in the same season. It all comes down to wins and losses though, and that's harder to project. He has a 3-6 record in one-possession games (2-4 last year) and none of the victories were against teams with winning records. That's not all on him since Cal obviously had plenty of problems, but he's got to prove he can come through in big moments and that's mainly how fans will judge whether not he had a successful season.