Pierre Poilievre might be cooked
First, of course, he has to win back a seat in the House of Commons. Mark Carney has said he will call a byelection for the riding of Battle River-Crowfoot, one officially resigned by Conservative MP Damien Kurek earlier this week. And while it's one of the safest Conservative seats in the country, it also presents a special kind of danger for Poilievre given the increase in separatist activity — if not support — in the province. Alberta separatists are heavily overrepresented in the Conservative membership of Kurek's largely rural riding, and Poilievre will have to find a way to put them in their place without risking a backlash.
This is the kind of tightrope he'll have to walk for the next six months. In order to secure the support of his base, and especially the members enthusiastic enough to turn out for a leadership review, he'll have to continue catering to them with Costco-sized quantities of red meat. But it's precisely that sort of pandering that helped cost him the last election, and could just as easily cost him the next one. The more he tries to hold onto his current job, the further the job he really wants slips from his reach.
So far, at least, he's shown no signs of being able to thread this particular political needle. Take his recent comments about immigration, ones that seem designed to appeal to a very specific slice of his party's base — and alienate the rest of the country in the process. 'We want severe limits on population growth to reverse the damage the Liberals did to our system,' he told reporters before turning on his heel and walking away from their follow-up questions. If this sounds more like something PPC leader Maxime Bernier would say, that's probably by design.
Never mind, for the moment, that the federal government has already made massive changes to its immigration policy — ones that could actually produce negative population growth over the next few years. As Waterloo economics professor Mikal Skuterud said on social media, 'Poilievre's call for 'severe limits on population growth' suggests he hasn't understood how far Liberals' 2025-2027 Immigration Targets go. We may see *declining* population levels (not just growth rates) in coming quarters.'
His comment about immigration also suggests he doesn't understand the real challenge he faces right now. He can spend the next six months pushing his party further to the right in an attempt to motivate its base and retain the leadership. But he may simply be securing the most Pyrrhic of victories, given the impact that would have on his standing with the broader Canadian public.
According to multiple pollsters, that standing has already eroded since the election. According to Nanos Research, Mark Carney now enjoys a 26 point advantage over Poilievre when it comes to who Canadians prefer as prime minister. 'The proportion of Canadians who prefer Conservative Leader Poilievre as PM has hit the lowest level since he assumed the leadership of the party in 2022,' Nik Nanos said.
EKOS Research has the spread even wider, with Carney's job approval rating at +36 and Poilievre's at -34. Maybe the most damning data points come from Spark Advocacy's latest poll, which shows that two-thirds of Canadians have positive feelings about their new prime minister. Worse, for Poilievre and his team, Carney is more popular among young people (by 10 points) and men (by 15 points) than the Conservative leader. These were supposed to be key building blocks in the new Conservative coalition Poilievre is building.
Pierre Poilievre probably thought that losing the election and his own seat was as bad as it could get for him. But if his own personal popularity continues to collapse, he might be in for an even bigger surprise than the one he experienced in April.
It's not as though Poilievre and the Conservatives are doomed to lose a fifth federal election in a row, whenever that election happens. Canadians will eventually tire of Carney, and that could happen far sooner than the prime minister and his advisors would like to imagine. But relying on Carney to fail is not a recipe for Poilievre's success. If he wants to win the next election, he needs to actually take stock of why he lost the last one — and make the necessary adjustments.
Mark Bourrie, who wrote a biography of Poilievre in advance of what looked like an inevitable victory, doesn't think that's going to happen. In a recent piece for The Walrus, he noted that 'Poilievre seems to lack self-awareness and reflection. Loyalty, a virtue in others, becomes a liability when a politician clings to those who aren't up to the job. Or who alienate potential friends. Since he was a kid, Poilievre's rigidity has walled out new ideas and contrary, sometimes better, ways of looking at things.'
The leader, in other words, is not for turning. He may be incapable, both by virtue of temperament and training, of the sort of introspection and humility required to acknowledge mistakes and make changes. Even if he did, it's not clear his party's radicalized membership, which has been trained by Poilievre and his team over the last few years to see moderation as weakness, would accept it.
Poilievre's leadership is safe for now, at least. But as Global News's Mackenzie Gray noted in a recent story, 'one source warned that if the Conservative leader isn't careful, a push to remove him could snowball quickly.' He might want to ask Scheer and O'Toole what that looks like — and whether there's any way to stop it.
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CTV News
an hour ago
- CTV News
Poilievre demands action from Ottawa on canola tariffs during stop in Saskatoon
WATCH: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made a stop in Saskatoon Thursday ahead of his byelection next week. WATCH: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made a stop in Saskatoon Thursday ahead of his byelection next week. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says Prime Minister Mark Carney's weak leadership is costing Canadians, and it's time to speak up and defend Western Canada's canola producers. 'It's like he doesn't care about Western Canadian producers,' Poilievre said. 'I had my team check his Twitter account. He hasn't tweeted a single thing about canola. Yet, he's been able to tweet about International Cat Day.' China's latest tariff on canola — this time a 75.8 per cent rate targeting canola seed imports — was put into action Thursday following an anti-dumping investigation, escalating a year-long trade dispute. Beijing previously imposed 100 per cent tariffs on canola oil and meal in March, effectively stagnating Canada's second largest foreign Canola market. The latest tariff has been seen as a response to the previous Liberal government's decision last year to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles in 2024. Poilievre made a stop at a farm just outside Saskatoon Thursday ahead of a byelection in Alberta, where Poilievre is looking to regain his seat in the House of Commons. He wouldn't directly answer a question if Ottawa should repeal its EV tariff, but said revenue from that tariff should go to producers. 'The money raised from the by the Canadian government in that dispute should go back to the people who are paying the bills,' Poilievre said. 'And that, of course, is mostly our canola producers.' Bill Prybylski, the president of the Agriculture Producers Association of Saskatchewan who farms west of Yorkton, says urgent action is needed from the Prime Minister soon. 'He's got to do something because right now it looks like we're being sacrificed,' Prybylski said. 'Sacrificing canola producers to save an EV industry that for the most part, is non-existent in the country.' Prybylski says while initial downturn in the market resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue for an industry which contributes more than $43 billion to the economy and employs roughly 200,000 people, he expects more uncertainty in the days and weeks ahead with harvest quickly approaching. On Thursday afternoon, Carney took to X to provide an update, saying he spoke with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe. He said both men are 'focused on a series of measures to support hard-working farmers.' Carney says Canada does not dump canola, a key motivation for the tariff. 'We will advance a constructive dialogue with Chinese officials to address our respective trade concerns, while diversifying our trade abroad and supporting our canola producers at home,' the statement read. Prybylski appreciates the federal government's efforts, but says the situation is disappointing. He feels Saskatchewan farmers are caught in the middle of a trade war the federal government started. 'We're basically helpless here,' he said. 'Other than we can advocate for changes and hope that our voices are being heard.'
Ottawa Citizen
4 hours ago
- Ottawa Citizen
All eyes on Battle River-Crowfoot byelection as hundreds of candidates vie for seat
Article content Laural Kurta grew up in Torrington, a tiny central-Alberta hamlet nestled inside the sprawling federal riding of Battle River-Crowfoot. Kurta is director of the area's largest draw — the World Famous Gopher Hole Museum, a taxidermy tourist attraction featuring 82 ground squirrels presented in various poses and outfits. Everywhere Kurta goes these days, somebody wants to talk about politics. 'Just randomly, actually, when I'm getting gas, some guy at the gas station or some guy in the line at the convenience store has mentioned things,' she said. 'I can't tell you how many people.' As an Aug. 18 byelection draws closer, people across the riding feel conflicted about what's occurred in recent months, she says. 'There are a lot of people in this area that absolutely adore Pierre Poilievre, but they're very conflicted to see the expenditures that he's causing for these taxpayers,' Kurta said. 'A lot of people are very upset, not only at at Damien Kurek, but also upset at his choice to leave that position, to give it to someone else.' Kurek is the riding's former MP, as of June. He's been politically active in the region since his father would drive him around to erect campaign signs. In last April's general election, Conservative Kurek won the riding in a landslide with 82 per cent of the vote in his bid for re-election. Less than a week later, he was home, still collecting his campaign lawn signs, when he made the decision to resign after six years of representing the riding. 'I believe politicians should be servants. This was a way that we could serve, both this region and our country by making this offer,' Kurek said. Conservative party Leader Pierre Poilievre did not enjoy the same electoral slam-dunk as Kurek, losing the seat he'd held in Ottawa for nearly two decades. Kurek stepping aside, which triggered next week's byelection, gave Poilievre a second shot. Kurek said he believes in Poilievre, and thought that even from Ottawa, the party's leader had been championing the needs of rural ridings like Battle River-Crowfoot. 'Pierre Poilievre may not have been on the ballot here in the last election, but he always took my call and always was willing to fight for the issues of this region,' Kurek said. He said getting Poilievre back into Parliament was best for the area long term, even if it meant Kurek himself needed to step aside in the short term. 'It came down to being able to lead by example,' said Kurek, who's now working at a government relations lobbying firm. Not everyone in the area agrees with the example Kurek is trying to set. 'Of course people in this area, they're always complaining — always, always, always — about federal spending. And now, of course, we're spending millions just to go through a byelection,' Kurta said. Farther north in Camrose, the largest municipality within the riding, Adan Shaikh writes for the Camrose Booster, a newspaper that's operated since 1952. She handles the 'letters to the editor' pages, which received a smattering of opinions ahead of the spring general election. This time around, they don't seem to stop. 'In the past few weeks I've received so many letters,' said Shaikh. 'What is happening here? Do we understand this situation? This is about leadership,' one letter read. 'This is not democracy. To me, this whole affair makes a complete sham of democracy,' declared another writer. Letters are often written in response to other submissions, sometimes by name, others by a referenced quote. Some are about the byelection, others about provincial politics. 'Some people think that Poilievre is using our riding, but then some people think that he is exactly what we need in this riding,' said Shaikh. 'People do feel that if, you know, Poilievre wins that this community might get some sort of centre stage at Parliament; that we might be heard. Our issues might finally be heard.' Affordability has been a key issue for many candidates. 'Folks here, they want to see their dollars go further,' Kurek said. The average income in the riding sits at $51,900, roughly $3,000 below the national average, though that figure nearly equalizes when measured after tax. The agriculture and oil and gas industries are also key focuses of constituents. A number of candidates have raised the need for federal infrastructure funding, to keep the roads used by farmers in good condition without raising property taxes. Several have championed the rights of gun owners, citing the large number of voters in the area who own firearms and use them responsibly. Poilievre's detractor-in-chief in the riding is a woman named Bonnie Critchley. She's said she was happy with Kurek as her representative, and valued his active presence in the riding. She feels jilted by the former MP and the Conservative party after he chose to step down and gave Poilievre the opportunity to replace him. 'To cost the people of Battle River-Crowfoot another $2 million because his ego couldn't take the loss was just unconscionable,' said Critchley. Rather than take those grievances to the newspaper, or to a stranger in line at a convenience store, Critchley decided to take them to the voters in Battle River-Crowfoot, and nominated herself as an Independent candidate. Critchley's name marks the most prominent independent on the ballot — no small feat, as the nomination period closed with more than 200 registered candidates. Duel at the doors When Bruce Fanjoy defeated Poilievre in Ottawa-Carleton last April, he claimed to have worn through two pairs of shoes as he knocked on more than 15,000 doors in the riding. His team encased one pair in glass to commemorate the victory. In Battle River-Crowfoot, Critchley has put 30,000 kilometres on her truck. She won't let anybody else drive. Fanjoy's riding makes up a total of 2,788 square kilometres. The expansive Alberta constituency, which stretches along the eastern edge of the province, takes up nearly 52,000. Of the riding's more than 40,000 dwellings, only 80 units are in apartment buildings taller than five storeys. The number of single-detached homes is nearly 35,000. Camrose makes up less than 20 per cent of the population, with the rest scattered across Alberta farmland in various towns, villages and hamlets. 'I honestly spend more time in the truck than I do anywhere else right now,' Critchley said. She said her door-knocking efforts are why she could win. 'My initial intention was to simply provide a voice for those disenfranchised, with the way the Conservatives just assumed that we'll be OK swapping the local boy for the angry man from Ottawa,' Critchley said. 'As I went knocking door to door, it turns out I'm really not the only one. There are a lot of people in this riding who are very upset.' Critchley said she has amended her platform from those conversations. She cited her campaign promise to 'fight for fair Right to Repair legislation,' as a primary example. Critchley is far from the only candidate making the rounds or putting on miles. No longer hampered by a national campaign for prime minister, Poilievre appears to be much more present on the ground than he was in Carleton. He has hosted a number of town halls, fielding dozens of questions from local constituents. His social media is filled with appearances shaking hands at local businesses, bumping fists at hockey games, and even riding on a local's ATV, following his children on a short tour of Ryley, a village on the northern reaches of the riding. 'I'm loving the campaign. I'm having a lot of fun, actually. I love the people of Battle River-Crowfoot,' Poilievre said at a recent stop in Calgary. Kurek has been along for the campaign ride, volunteering his time to act as liaison between Poilievre and the constituents Kurek spent so long representing. He described the party leader as a workhorse, running from door-to-door. He said the reaction when they're on the campaign trail together has been positive. 'They say, 'Wait a second. It's actually you, you're here!' ' In Camrose, Shaikh said 'almost everyone has met him at this point.' She has met the party leader several times, adding she has also met Critchley and Liberal Party of Canada candidate Darcy Spady. Spady said he's been surprised by the amount of goodwill he's received at doors, especially in an area that generally aren't the biggest supporters of the federal Liberal party. 'There's been a few rough moments and a couple suggestions what I should do with myself and how quickly I should do it. But by and large, I've been pleasantly surprised, and I think the time is super ripe for people in East Central Alberta to have an option that's centrist and get used to red paint,' he said. Spady said he hasn't seen Poilievre in the riding outside of all-candidates meetings. Even at those forums, the party leader doesn't speak to others on the ballot, candidates said. Spady isn't convinced Poilievre is as busy in communities across the riding as his Instagram might suggest. 'He has a pretty active social media staff, I'll say that,' Spady said. In the village of Torrington, Kurta said Critchley has twice been in the community. 'No other candidate has made themselves known,' she said. Long, longer, longest ballot A record-breaking 214 candidates are on the byelection ballot; 201 one of those candidates are linked to the Longest Ballot Committee, a protest group that's added large numbers of candidates to electoral races since 2019. The group is relatively amorphous — without even a website to broadcast its message — but has made its presence known by stacking ballots in eight previous elections. According to the committee, there are now candidates from nearly every province in the country registered for Monday's byelection, with two even running from foreign countries. Tracy Farber is running from across the Atlantic in Lancaster, England, where she's lived for a decade. 'I also felt like it was a bit silly that the Conservative leader could just bump out the last MP and force a byelection. It's only slightly more silly that I run from over here,' Farber said. She's a Canadian citizen and lived near Brooks, Alta. She grew up in locations across the Prairies. 'I went to high school in Duchess and had family living in the riding. I'm pretty sure that makes me more local than Poilievre is,' she said. Elections Canada requirements for candidacy include Canadian citizenship, and being at least 18 years of age on election day. Those rules also explicitly state 'you do not have to live in the electoral district where you are running,' making no distinction on whether the place you're currently living is within Canada. Another listed candidate, Jason Buzzell, lives in the U.S. state of Nebraska. 'When I heard an unneeded byelection was called in the Camrose riding, I had to throw my name in the ring,' he said. Buzzell is a dual citizen who grew up near Camrose, and despite having lived in the U.S. for more than a decade, has spent that time consistently following Canadian politics. He still votes every federal election. Following politics in both countries, Buzzell is worried Canada is drifting closer to the two-party system seen south of the border. He's concerned that without electoral reform, Canada will see politics become more polarized all the way down to municipal levels of government. 'I can see it firsthand here right now,' he said. Registering as a candidate was his way of drawing attention to the issue. 'I do not have millions of dollars, and I am busy working and being a dad, so LBC helped get my name on the ballot,' Buzzell said. Candidates are required to collect 'at least 100 signatures of electors residing in the electoral district in which they intend to run,' a process that would likely be made more difficult for those living outside of the riding, province, or country. The Longest Ballot Committee smooths over that sore spot, sending volunteers around the riding to round up signatures for its candidates. Yao ZhangLi is one of the several hundred the committee helped onto the ballot. He's running without having left his home city of Montreal. He said the process to become a candidate took a little over 30 minutes. 'I just kinda raised my hand, they told me 'do this and that,' and that's it,' ZhangLi said. ZhangLi first heard about the initiative in April's general election, watching candidate Poilievre to unfurl a nearly metre-long ballot after the group stacked the Ottawa-Carleton race with 91 names. 'I was like, maybe I should get involved,' he said. 'I do intimately feel that our democracy has been stalled in terms of its efficacy.' While detractors argue the movement is impeding democracy, the Longest Ballot Committee, in a statement to Postmedia, said it's seeking to create an organization similar to Elections Canada — bipartisan, and separated from government oversight. The group want all electoral changes done through that organization, rather than passed through the House of Commons. 'Call it Election Rules Canada, to oversee democratic reform. MPs only change election rules to help themselves and this is a big flaw, one we're asking be fixed,' the statement reads. Write to vote versus right to vote The effort has already achieved a small measure of electoral reform in Monday's byelection. Rather than print off hundreds of metre-long ballots as happened in Carleton, Elections Canada elected to change the way ballots are cast. Voters will instead have to write out the name of their chosen candidate. While the write-in method of voting is not new, as it is the way special ballots have been cast for quite some time, it's the first time Elections Canada has been forced to make the switch for the day-of vote. The change may have an impact on the time it takes to tally the count. Voters may write out the name of the candidate they're voting for, alongside their party, but writing solely the name of the party will make the vote invalid. Spelling errors won't invalidate a ballot immediately, as long as the candidate of choice is still legible. Shaikh said most people she speaks with are happy about the ballot change given the circumstance, but that 'everyone is obviously pissed off at the Longest Ballot Committee.' 'We have a pretty big seniors community here in Camrose as well, and it's just such a great way to confuse people,' she said. Poilievre voiced those same concerns during his Calgary visit. 'They just want to inundate the ballot to confuse the situation, make it harder for people to vote. People with vision problems, the elderly, others who have difficulty now are going to have a harder time voting, and it shouldn't be allowed,' he said. As of the 2021 census, 21.3 per cent of the riding's population was over the age of 65 — two points higher than the national average at 19 per cent. Poilievre has now campaigned in two elections with a long (and now an even-longer) ballot, and said he wants to put forward his own electoral reform; the kind that will shut out the Longest Ballot Committee and similar protest initiatives. 'I don't have a problem with anyone who wants to run for office, even if they're not known or not wealthy,' he said. 'The simple solution is to say that if you want to be a candidate, you have to get, you know, several hundred signatures of your own.' The party leader has offered up potential legislation that would make stacking a ballot nearly impossible, namely disallowing voters from signing for multiple candidates, and requiring many more signatures to be an official candidate. The committee, in a statement, said Poilievre's proposal 'would have a profound and negative impact on Canadian democracy. In many ridings it could turn every election into a two-party race, and in safe ridings, like Battle River-Crowfoot, we would likely see no election at all. Races would simply be won by acclamation.' The impact of the large numbers of candidates and the ballot-casting changes won't be clear until after election day. Longest ballot candidates generally receive no more than a dozen votes. Often running from outside the riding, or province, longest ballot candidates frequently finish the race with no votes at all. However, those double-digit vote totals can add up, and 'in close elections, it can make a difference, and can, as I say, interfere with the real representation of the will of the electorate,' said Lori Williams, a policy studies professor at Mount Royal University. In two elections involving the Longest Ballot Committee, Independents have received a number of votes within the margins of victory between the first and second place candidates. The 2024 Toronto St. Paul's byelection saw Conservative Don Stewart beat the Liberal candidate running for re-election by just 633 votes. The ballot had 84 candidates, with Independents receiving a total of 1083 votes. The byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun later that same year was even closer. The Bloc Québécois beat the Liberal who previously held the seat by only 269 votes; Independents, 868. Williams said while the committee may now have a trend of targeting Poilievre's ridings, he's not likely to be the one impacted by their presence. If the election is close enough that those margins matter, it's much more likely to affect the lesser-known Independents, she said. 'It's always going to make things more difficult for the person with less resources available to them,' Williams said. 'They simply don't have the money or the volunteers or the organization in place to offset the edge that's this commonly held by mainstream party candidates.' Poilievre's complaints about candidates running without intent to win might also point the finger at candidates who do have official party status. When Kurek attended candidate forums during the general election, he was the only person on stage. Now, forums are packed left-to-right with members from every major party in Canada. Kurta has said she thinks many of the candidates attending the forums, like the Green Party's Ashley MacDonald, know they won't win. 'It is a very conservative area, so you know, you're not going to see somebody vote for the Green Party, although I really like that guy. I thought he was great. He was quite witty, I enjoyed him, but he knows where he's standing. He knows where he's running,' Kurta said. Candidates are using the spotlight drawn by a party leader running in their riding to draw a line in the sand, she said. NDP candidate Katherine Swampy admitted as such on stage. 'I get it. I'm running, I'm going to lose. I'm here to advocate,' Swampy said, at an Aug. 4 all-candidates forum in Drumheller. What comes next? Williams describes the nature of this byelection as unique. Party leaders have seen other representatives step aside before, but very rarely after losing a constituency of their own. It is further complicated by the fact Poilievre was open about his time in Battle River-Crowfoot only being for one electoral period, asking Kurek to step aside only until the next election when he could run again. 'This sort of dropping in temporarily and promising to leave is something I've never seen before, and again, raises questions in some people's minds about his commitment to representing this region,' Williams said. Despite landing a new job with government relations and lobbying firm Upstream Strategy Group, Kurek says he still plans to return to politics, if Battle River-Crowfoot would be willing to take him back. 'It would be an honour to be able to serve again at some point, but, ultimately, that's up to the to the people to decide,' Kurek said. Kurek says that, if there's one win out of the situation (besides who he hopes is MP come Aug. 18), it's that people are finally talking about the importance of rural Canada. Should Poilievre win, Critchley is concerned he will go on to lose the official party leadership. If he does, she think's he'll abandon the riding and that Battle River-Crowfoot voters will again be back at the polls. Win or lose, Critchley doesn't think this will be her last time campaigning. Ultimately, many locals seem to think the field will fall short in the face of the force that is Poilievre. 'I think, he has definitely at least an 80 per cent chance of winning. I was at the byelection forum that was held here in Camrose, and I think it was very evident that he has a lot of support,' Shaikh said. 'It's probably going to the front-runner. Just because that's the way things go,' said Kurta.
Calgary Herald
4 hours ago
- Calgary Herald
All eyes on Battle River-Crowfoot byelection as hundreds of candidates vie for seat
Conservative party Leader Pierre Poilievre's aspirations for a parliamentary comeback depend on this sprawling rural Alberta riding — and the fact a new vote was even necessary so soon after the general election has drawn mixed reviews Article content Laural Kurta grew up in Torrington, a tiny central-Alberta hamlet nestled inside the sprawling federal riding of Battle River-Crowfoot. Kurta is director of the area's largest draw — the World Famous Gopher Hole Museum, a taxidermy tourist attraction featuring 82 ground squirrels presented in various poses and outfits. Everywhere Kurta goes these days, somebody wants to talk about politics. 'Just randomly, actually, when I'm getting gas, some guy at the gas station or some guy in the line at the convenience store has mentioned things,' she said. 'I can't tell you how many people.' As an Aug. 18 byelection draws closer, people across the riding feel conflicted about what's occurred in recent months, she says. 'There are a lot of people in this area that absolutely adore Pierre Poilievre, but they're very conflicted to see the expenditures that he's causing for these taxpayers,' Kurta said. 'A lot of people are very upset, not only at at Damien Kurek, but also upset at his choice to leave that position, to give it to someone else.' Kurek is the riding's former MP, as of June. He's been politically active in the region since his father would drive him around to erect campaign signs. In last April's general election, Conservative Kurek won the riding in a landslide with 82 per cent of the vote in his bid for re-election. Less than a week later, he was home, still collecting his campaign lawn signs, when he made the decision to resign after six years of representing the riding. 'I believe politicians should be servants. This was a way that we could serve, both this region and our country by making this offer,' Kurek said. Conservative party Leader Pierre Poilievre did not enjoy the same electoral slam-dunk as Kurek, losing the seat he'd held in Ottawa for nearly two decades. Kurek stepping aside, which triggered next week's byelection, gave Poilievre a second shot. Kurek said he believes in Poilievre, and thought that even from Ottawa, the party's leader had been championing the needs of rural ridings like Battle River-Crowfoot. 'Pierre Poilievre may not have been on the ballot here in the last election, but he always took my call and always was willing to fight for the issues of this region,' Kurek said. He said getting Poilievre back into Parliament was best for the area long term, even if it meant Kurek himself needed to step aside in the short term. 'It came down to being able to lead by example,' said Kurek, who's now working at a government relations lobbying firm. Not everyone in the area agrees with the example Kurek is trying to set. 'Of course people in this area, they're always complaining — always, always, always — about federal spending. And now, of course, we're spending millions just to go through a byelection,' Kurta said. Farther north in Camrose, the largest municipality within the riding, Adan Shaikh writes for the Camrose Booster, a newspaper that's operated since 1952. She handles the 'letters to the editor' pages, which received a smattering of opinions ahead of the spring general election. This time around, they don't seem to stop. 'In the past few weeks I've received so many letters,' said Shaikh. 'What is happening here? Do we understand this situation? This is about leadership,' one letter read. 'This is not democracy. To me, this whole affair makes a complete sham of democracy,' declared another writer. Letters are often written in response to other submissions, sometimes by name, others by a referenced quote. Some are about the byelection, others about provincial politics. 'Some people think that Poilievre is using our riding, but then some people think that he is exactly what we need in this riding,' said Shaikh. 'People do feel that if, you know, Poilievre wins that this community might get some sort of centre stage at Parliament; that we might be heard. Our issues might finally be heard.' Affordability has been a key issue for many candidates. 'Folks here, they want to see their dollars go further,' Kurek said. The average income in the riding sits at $51,900, roughly $3,000 below the national average, though that figure nearly equalizes when measured after tax. The agriculture and oil and gas industries are also key focuses of constituents. A number of candidates have raised the need for federal infrastructure funding, to keep the roads used by farmers in good condition without raising property taxes. Several have championed the rights of gun owners, citing the large number of voters in the area who own firearms and use them responsibly. Poilievre's detractor-in-chief in the riding is a woman named Bonnie Critchley. She's said she was happy with Kurek as her representative, and valued his active presence in the riding. She feels jilted by the former MP and the Conservative party after he chose to step down and gave Poilievre the opportunity to replace him. 'To cost the people of Battle River-Crowfoot another $2 million because his ego couldn't take the loss was just unconscionable,' said Critchley. Rather than take those grievances to the newspaper, or to a stranger in line at a convenience store, Critchley decided to take them to the voters in Battle River-Crowfoot, and nominated herself as an Independent candidate. Critchley's name marks the most prominent independent on the ballot — no small feat, as the nomination period closed with more than 200 registered candidates. Duel at the doors When Bruce Fanjoy defeated Poilievre in Ottawa-Carleton last April, he claimed to have worn through two pairs of shoes as he knocked on more than 15,000 doors in the riding. His team encased one pair in glass to commemorate the victory. In Battle River-Crowfoot, Critchley has put 30,000 kilometres on her truck. She won't let anybody else drive. Fanjoy's riding makes up a total of 2,788 square kilometres. The expansive Alberta constituency, which stretches along the eastern edge of the province, takes up nearly 52,000. Of the riding's more than 40,000 dwellings, only 80 units are in apartment buildings taller than five storeys. The number of single-detached homes is nearly 35,000. Camrose makes up less than 20 per cent of the population, with the rest scattered across Alberta farmland in various towns, villages and hamlets. 'I honestly spend more time in the truck than I do anywhere else right now,' Critchley said. She said her door-knocking efforts are why she could win. 'My initial intention was to simply provide a voice for those disenfranchised, with the way the Conservatives just assumed that we'll be OK swapping the local boy for the angry man from Ottawa,' Critchley said. 'As I went knocking door to door, it turns out I'm really not the only one. There are a lot of people in this riding who are very upset.' Critchley said she has amended her platform from those conversations. She cited her campaign promise to 'fight for fair Right to Repair legislation,' as a primary example. Critchley is far from the only candidate making the rounds or putting on miles. No longer hampered by a national campaign for prime minister, Poilievre appears to be much more present on the ground than he was in Carleton. He has hosted a number of town halls, fielding dozens of questions from local constituents. His social media is filled with appearances shaking hands at local businesses, bumping fists at hockey games, and even riding on a local's ATV, following his children on a short tour of Ryley, a village on the northern reaches of the riding. 'I'm loving the campaign. I'm having a lot of fun, actually. I love the people of Battle River-Crowfoot,' Poilievre said at a recent stop in Calgary. Kurek has been along for the campaign ride, volunteering his time to act as liaison between Poilievre and the constituents Kurek spent so long representing. He described the party leader as a workhorse, running from door-to-door. He said the reaction when they're on the campaign trail together has been positive. 'They say, 'Wait a second. It's actually you, you're here!' ' In Camrose, Shaikh said 'almost everyone has met him at this point.' She has met the party leader several times, adding she has also met Critchley and Liberal Party of Canada candidate Darcy Spady. Spady said he's been surprised by the amount of goodwill he's received at doors, especially in an area that generally aren't the biggest supporters of the federal Liberal party. 'There's been a few rough moments and a couple suggestions what I should do with myself and how quickly I should do it. But by and large, I've been pleasantly surprised, and I think the time is super ripe for people in East Central Alberta to have an option that's centrist and get used to red paint,' he said. Spady said he hasn't seen Poilievre in the riding outside of all-candidates meetings. Even at those forums, the party leader doesn't speak to others on the ballot, candidates said. Spady isn't convinced Poilievre is as busy in communities across the riding as his Instagram might suggest. 'He has a pretty active social media staff, I'll say that,' Spady said. In the village of Torrington, Kurta said Critchley has twice been in the community. 'No other candidate has made themselves known,' she said. Long, longer, longest ballot A record-breaking 214 candidates are on the byelection ballot; 201 one of those candidates are linked to the Longest Ballot Committee, a protest group that's added large numbers of candidates to electoral races since 2019. The group is relatively amorphous — without even a website to broadcast its message — but has made its presence known by stacking ballots in eight previous elections. According to the committee, there are now candidates from nearly every province in the country registered for Monday's byelection, with two even running from foreign countries. Tracy Farber is running from across the Atlantic in Lancaster, England, where she's lived for a decade. 'I also felt like it was a bit silly that the Conservative leader could just bump out the last MP and force a byelection. It's only slightly more silly that I run from over here,' Farber said. She's a Canadian citizen and lived near Brooks, Alta. She grew up in locations across the Prairies. 'I went to high school in Duchess and had family living in the riding. I'm pretty sure that makes me more local than Poilievre is,' she said. Elections Canada requirements for candidacy include Canadian citizenship, and being at least 18 years of age on election day. Those rules also explicitly state 'you do not have to live in the electoral district where you are running,' making no distinction on whether the place you're currently living is within Canada. Another listed candidate, Jason Buzzell, lives in the U.S. state of Nebraska. 'When I heard an unneeded byelection was called in the Camrose riding, I had to throw my name in the ring,' he said. Buzzell is a dual citizen who grew up near Camrose, and despite having lived in the U.S. for more than a decade, has spent that time consistently following Canadian politics. He still votes every federal election. Following politics in both countries, Buzzell is worried Canada is drifting closer to the two-party system seen south of the border. He's concerned that without electoral reform, Canada will see politics become more polarized all the way down to municipal levels of government. 'I can see it firsthand here right now,' he said. Registering as a candidate was his way of drawing attention to the issue. 'I do not have millions of dollars, and I am busy working and being a dad, so LBC helped get my name on the ballot,' Buzzell said. Candidates are required to collect 'at least 100 signatures of electors residing in the electoral district in which they intend to run,' a process that would likely be made more difficult for those living outside of the riding, province, or country. The Longest Ballot Committee smooths over that sore spot, sending volunteers around the riding to round up signatures for its candidates. Yao ZhangLi is one of the several hundred the committee helped onto the ballot. He's running without having left his home city of Montreal. He said the process to become a candidate took a little over 30 minutes. 'I just kinda raised my hand, they told me 'do this and that,' and that's it,' ZhangLi said. ZhangLi first heard about the initiative in April's general election, watching candidate Poilievre to unfurl a nearly metre-long ballot after the group stacked the Ottawa-Carleton race with 91 names. 'I was like, maybe I should get involved,' he said. 'I do intimately feel that our democracy has been stalled in terms of its efficacy.' While detractors argue the movement is impeding democracy, the Longest Ballot Committee, in a statement to Postmedia, said it's seeking to create an organization similar to Elections Canada — bipartisan, and separated from government oversight. The group want all electoral changes done through that organization, rather than passed through the House of Commons. 'Call it Election Rules Canada, to oversee democratic reform. MPs only change election rules to help themselves and this is a big flaw, one we're asking be fixed,' the statement reads. Write to vote versus right to vote The effort has already achieved a small measure of electoral reform in Monday's byelection. Rather than print off hundreds of metre-long ballots as happened in Carleton, Elections Canada elected to change the way ballots are cast. Voters will instead have to write out the name of their chosen candidate. While the write-in method of voting is not new, as it is the way special ballots have been cast for quite some time, it's the first time Elections Canada has been forced to make the switch for the day-of vote. The change may have an impact on the time it takes to tally the count. Voters may write out the name of the candidate they're voting for, alongside their party, but writing solely the name of the party will make the vote invalid. Spelling errors won't invalidate a ballot immediately, as long as the candidate of choice is still legible. Shaikh said most people she speaks with are happy about the ballot change given the circumstance, but that 'everyone is obviously pissed off at the Longest Ballot Committee.' 'We have a pretty big seniors community here in Camrose as well, and it's just such a great way to confuse people,' she said. Poilievre voiced those same concerns during his Calgary visit. 'They just want to inundate the ballot to confuse the situation, make it harder for people to vote. People with vision problems, the elderly, others who have difficulty now are going to have a harder time voting, and it shouldn't be allowed,' he said. As of the 2021 census, 21.3 per cent of the riding's population was over the age of 65 — two points higher than the national average at 19 per cent. Poilievre has now campaigned in two elections with a long (and now an even-longer) ballot, and said he wants to put forward his own electoral reform; the kind that will shut out the Longest Ballot Committee and similar protest initiatives. 'I don't have a problem with anyone who wants to run for office, even if they're not known or not wealthy,' he said. 'The simple solution is to say that if you want to be a candidate, you have to get, you know, several hundred signatures of your own.' The party leader has offered up potential legislation that would make stacking a ballot nearly impossible, namely disallowing voters from signing for multiple candidates, and requiring many more signatures to be an official candidate. The committee, in a statement, said Poilievre's proposal 'would have a profound and negative impact on Canadian democracy. In many ridings it could turn every election into a two-party race, and in safe ridings, like Battle River-Crowfoot, we would likely see no election at all. Races would simply be won by acclamation.' The impact of the large numbers of candidates and the ballot-casting changes won't be clear until after election day. Longest ballot candidates generally receive no more than a dozen votes. Often running from outside the riding, or province, longest ballot candidates frequently finish the race with no votes at all. However, those double-digit vote totals can add up, and 'in close elections, it can make a difference, and can, as I say, interfere with the real representation of the will of the electorate,' said Lori Williams, a policy studies professor at Mount Royal University. In two elections involving the Longest Ballot Committee, Independents have received a number of votes within the margins of victory between the first and second place candidates. The 2024 Toronto St. Paul's byelection saw Conservative Don Stewart beat the Liberal candidate running for re-election by just 633 votes. The ballot had 84 candidates, with Independents receiving a total of 1083 votes. The byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun later that same year was even closer. The Bloc Québécois beat the Liberal who previously held the seat by only 269 votes; Independents, 868. Williams said while the committee may now have a trend of targeting Poilievre's ridings, he's not likely to be the one impacted by their presence. If the election is close enough that those margins matter, it's much more likely to affect the lesser-known Independents, she said. 'It's always going to make things more difficult for the person with less resources available to them,' Williams said. 'They simply don't have the money or the volunteers or the organization in place to offset the edge that's this commonly held by mainstream party candidates.' Poilievre's complaints about candidates running without intent to win might also point the finger at candidates who do have official party status. When Kurek attended candidate forums during the general election, he was the only person on stage. Now, forums are packed left-to-right with members from every major party in Canada. Kurta has said she thinks many of the candidates attending the forums, like the Green Party's Ashley MacDonald, know they won't win. 'It is a very conservative area, so you know, you're not going to see somebody vote for the Green Party, although I really like that guy. I thought he was great. He was quite witty, I enjoyed him, but he knows where he's standing. He knows where he's running,' Kurta said. Candidates are using the spotlight drawn by a party leader running in their riding to draw a line in the sand, she said. NDP candidate Katherine Swampy admitted as such on stage. 'I get it. I'm running, I'm going to lose. I'm here to advocate,' Swampy said, at an Aug. 4 all-candidates forum in Drumheller. What comes next? Williams describes the nature of this byelection as unique. Party leaders have seen other representatives step aside before, but very rarely after losing a constituency of their own. It is further complicated by the fact Poilievre was open about his time in Battle River-Crowfoot only being for one electoral period, asking Kurek to step aside only until the next election when he could run again. 'This sort of dropping in temporarily and promising to leave is something I've never seen before, and again, raises questions in some people's minds about his commitment to representing this region,' Williams said. Despite landing a new job with government relations and lobbying firm Upstream Strategy Group, Kurek says he still plans to return to politics, if Battle River-Crowfoot would be willing to take him back. 'It would be an honour to be able to serve again at some point, but, ultimately, that's up to the to the people to decide,' Kurek said. Kurek says that, if there's one win out of the situation (besides who he hopes is MP come Aug. 18), it's that people are finally talking about the importance of rural Canada. Should Poilievre win, Critchley is concerned he will go on to lose the official party leadership. If he does, she think's he'll abandon the riding and that Battle River-Crowfoot voters will again be back at the polls. Win or lose, Critchley doesn't think this will be her last time campaigning. Ultimately, many locals seem to think the field will fall short in the face of the force that is Poilievre. 'I think, he has definitely at least an 80 per cent chance of winning. I was at the byelection forum that was held here in Camrose, and I think it was very evident that he has a lot of support,' Shaikh said. 'It's probably going to the front-runner. Just because that's the way things go,' said Kurta.
