GOP House members want to run in other races. Trump is telling them to stay in their seats.

Boston Globe

23-07-2025

'After careful consideration ... as well as in consultation with President Trump, I have decided against a bid for U.S. Senate in Michigan,' he said in a statement.
It's the latest example of Trump's increasingly heavy-handed efforts to keep incumbent House members in their seats and keep those seats in GOP hands as he and his political team try to avoid what happened in his first term, when Republicans lost the chamber after just two years. From Michigan to New York to Iowa, Trump has actively worked to reshape Republican primary fields, demonstrating the enormous influence he wields over a party that, by and large, answers to him.
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Trump puts his thumb on the scale for the 2026 midterms
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In Iowa, Rep. Zach Nunn had been weighing a run for governor until his own conversation with Trump, after which he opted to seek reelection to a seat that national Republicans feel would have been more competitive without an incumbent on the ballot. Trump offered a full-throated endorsement of Nunn's reelection after he said he spoke with him.
And on Wednesday, New York Rep. Mike Lawler announced he would defend his pivotal swing seat rather than launch a gubernatorial bid after a private meeting with Trump last week.
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'He obviously encouraged me to run for reelection to the House,' Lawler said about his conversation with Trump. 'That's where his focus is.'
The efforts are the latest demonstration of Trump and his political operation's intense focus on keeping control of the House next year.
The party in power historically loses seats in midterm elections. But Trump, according to people familiar with his thinking, is determined to avoid a repeat of 2018, when Democrats took over the House and proceeded to block his legislative agenda and then impeach him twice.
Trump is hoping he can buck history and maintain maximum power for the next three-and-a-half years, despite his lame duck status.
To that end, he and his team have worked to dissuade incumbents in potentially vulnerable seats from stepping down to pursue runs for the Senate or governor, delivering the message that they are all on the same team and that it is in the party's best interest to keep control of the chamber.
'We have a tight margin. These competitive districts are going to be determinative of the outcome,' said Lawler. 'Of course, the president has a focus on wanting to keep these seats and avoid unnecessary primaries.'
Trump still wields power over GOP members
Trump's success in dissuading members from pursuing what are effectively promotions is yet another demonstration of the enormous power he wields over members, many of whom have made clear that they will not run unless they have the president's blessing.
At the same time, he's shown a willingness to greenlight bids from members in safer seats. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, who represents a deep red district, continues to move toward a potential run for governor. Trump also signaled support for a Senate bid by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia, though she ultimately decided against it.
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Republican House candidates this year are generally trying to run in lockstep with the president — a reflection of his sky-high popularity with Republican voters and his success last November in drawing new voters to the party. Republicans are eager to replicate that model after struggling in the past to turn out Trump's supporters when the president isn't on the ballot.
Democrats, meanwhile, have tried to cast the moves as a sign that Republicans are nervous about 2026.
'They know their prospects for reelection are grim. They have been ordered by Donald Trump to seek reelection. In other words, Donald has signed their political death sentence,' House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Wednesday. 'They chose to bend the knee.'
Huizenga steps aside
Huizenga, for months, had been contemplating challenging Rogers in the Republican primary, waiting for a more formal discussion with Trump about the race, although they had spoken on the phone multiple times. Some Republicans in the state felt that Rogers should be challenged, since he lost last year even as Trump won by nearly 80,000 votes. Rogers has hired a number of Trump's staffers, including his former campaign co-manager, Chris LaCivita.
While the emphasis from the White House was on keeping the House seat — which Huizenga won by just under 12 percentage points — he has not yet made a final decision on reelection.
'Every two years, Bill sits down with his wife to discuss what is best for their family,' Brian Patrick, Huizenga's spokesperson, said in a statement. 'This election cycle is no different.'
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Lawler said that while Trump shared his desire for the congressman to stay in the House, 'I didn't get here by doing as told.'
'It's something that I've thought extensively about and went through a very unemotional process and a more data driven process than anything,' said Lawler.
Not everyone has abided by Trump's wishes. Rep. John James of Michigan is running for governor in a crowded GOP field, leaving open a competitive House seat.
'He's running for governor but I'm not sure I'm too happy about that, John,' said Trump during an event in June, with James in the audience.
'Do we have somebody good to take your seat? 'Cause otherwise we're not letting him run for governor,' Trump said with a laugh.
James' spokesperson, Hannah Osantowske, said in a statement that James has earned 'the President's endorsement in every race and is committed to earning it again.'
'He's a proven winner, and President Trump backs winners who've stood by him,' Osantowske said.
Trump has leveraged other power over Republicans
Beyond discouraging members from running, Trump is flexing his power in other ways. In Texas, he has pushed Republicans to try to redraw House district maps to help protect Republicans' slim majority next year. He wants Republicans to carve out as many as five more winnable congressional districts — a high-risk, high-reward maneuver that could energize Democratic voters.
The intense involvement in House races stands in contrast to the Senate, where Trump, until now, has generally avoided wading into contentious and open primaries in crucial battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia, as well as in Texas. In the Lone Star State, a longtime ally, Ken Paxton, is challenging incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, to the dismay of many national Republicans who fear Paxton would be toxic in a general election.
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Even in Michigan, where Rogers is now expected to be the lone high-profile Republican in the open race, Trump has yet to endorse.
The contrast, allies say, reflects the more disciplined approach his political operation is taking compared to years past. That includes subjecting candidates Trump may endorse to a careful vetting process that includes an assessment of their teams and fundraising capacity.