Trump's ‘Golden Dome' missile defense is costly, ambitious — and necessary

New York Post

22-05-2025

President Donald Trump this week took important steps to advance his 'Golden Dome' missile-defense system — and not a moment too soon.
For years, administrations of both parties have failed to devote sufficient resources to missile defense, even as China and Russia have sprinted to develop new ways to threaten the American homeland.
Our margin of safety has badly eroded in the face of these adversaries' 'ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles capable of striking the homeland with either conventional or nuclear warheads,' as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday.
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A new Defense Intelligence Agency assessment this month pointed in particular to Beijing's and Moscow's aggressive efforts to field new hypersonic glide vehicles, 'engineered to complicate US defenses in the event of a conflict.'
Trump, who heralded the project in an Oval Office press conference Tuesday, promised it would cost about $175 billion and would be 'fully operational' by the end of his term in January 2029.
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It's likely to be more expensive than that — and take much longer to field — but the president's vision for better homeland missile defense is a laudable and necessary effort.
The massive undertaking aims to build on America's modest existing homeland ballistic missile defenses with a modernized and greatly expanded architecture to detect, track and engage inbound cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missile threats.
In his January executive order, Trump directed that the system include space-based sensors and interceptors and the capability to defeat missile attacks before launch, as well as in their boost and terminal phases.
This week he named Gen. Michael Guetlein, currently vice chief of space operations for the US Space Force, to lead the 'Golden Dome' effort.
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That's a smart decision: Gutlein has significant experience in acquiring space and missile-defense capabilities and has served in key positions at the National Reconnaissance Office and the Missile Defense Agency.
Trump also signaled that Canada could partner in the effort — news that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed Wednesday.
That's smart, too. Canada already plays a vital role in the North American Aerospace Defense Command, and dozens of radars in Canada help provide Americans early warning of incoming missiles.
The 'big, beautiful' budget reconciliation bill that passed the House early Thursday morning includes $25 billion in 'Golden Dome' funding — but that would be just a down payment.
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Trump's Tuesday statement was aspirational.
'The Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world, and even if they're launched from space,' he promised.
But while the effort is vital to Americans' security, neither Trump's three-year timeline nor his $175 billion cost estimate is at all realistic.
To be sure, some initial, valuable capabilities can be fielded in that time frame — but 'Golden Dome' has both a short-term and a long-term component, and 'full operational' capability by 2029 for the system Trump described Tuesday is not going to happen.
Consider the cost just to deploy and operate a constellation of space-based interceptors over the next 20 years.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated this month that the lowest-cost version of such a system would ring in at $161 billion — and the priciest alternative would cost at least $542 billion.
And SBIs will be an important part of 'Golden Dome' — but only one part.
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Innovative efforts, including dirigibles and unmanned aircraft, could mitigate the significant costs of the large network, but the overall cost of 'Golden Dome' will far surpass $175 billion.
Hegseth said Tuesday that the Defense Department is working to develop a complete funding plan and will do so before the budget for fiscal year 2026 is finalized.
That is important: If past is prologue, the failure to provide sufficient funding will guarantee that 'Golden Dome' falls short.
Unfortunately, the base defense budget that Trump requested for next fiscal year is the same as the current year's amount — and does not even keep up with inflation.
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The result, in effect, is a declining defense budget even as threats to the United States grow.
President Trump won't be able to achieve a 'peace through strength' foreign policy, or a successful 'Golden Dome,' on a Biden defense budget.
As Trump's Tuesday display made clear, his 'Golden Dome' vision is a major defense priority for this administration.
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The focus on homeland missile defense is long overdue.
Now we need a detailed plan that can be accomplished at the speed of relevance — and at a cost Americans will support.
Bradley Bowman and Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery are senior directors at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where they lead the Air and Missile Defense Program.
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