Champions League knockout round betting review: who are the bookmakers' second-leg favourites?

New York Times

12-02-2025

It's been quite a night. From Celtic Park to the Stade Louis II, there's been no shortage of drama, tantalising penalty calls, Dutch wizardry, and even the odd red card (Monaco fans, look away). So, just as we did last night, our sports betting team unravelled the chaos and offered their wagering insights ahead of the second legs…
Sam Tighe:
Expect the expected. Brest haven't beaten PSG since 1985 and recently lost 5-2 to them – was there anything to suggest this one would go any differently? Those who backed the visitors to win (at 3/10) and backed plenty of goals (over 2.5 goals was priced at 29/20) were rewarded.
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PSG were two clear by half-time, but it took a little time for the third, killer goal to arrive; bettors that took the over were left to sweat well into the second half and watch a goal disallowed for a marginal offside decision before they could celebrate Ousmane Dembélé's second of the night.
This tie is quite clearly finished, so there's little value in betting on the second leg next week. Instead, perhaps it's time to consider whether PSG – who appear to be revving up at the right time – can take that final step and win the whole thing? They're sixth favourites, out at 12/1, which is just about long enough for a cheeky punt.
Tighe:
Should we have seen this coming? The market for this game was set fairly even, with a home win just about favoured at 29/20. The fact that Dortmund won so convincingly proved that prediction wrong, as they summoned the spirit of last season and turned in an epic European display.
They have form for this: In the 2023-24 campaign, they beat Atlético Madrid and PSG en route to a final against Real Madrid while simultaneously sinking in the Bundesliga. At no point in those European games were they favoured to win, yet they confounded the odds all the way. Is that happening again? Clearly this group of players have a great appetite for nights under the lights.
As with the PSG tie, there's very little to be interested in from a betting perspective for the second leg in Germany. They're out at 40/1 to win the whole thing if you fancy them to go one better than last year.
Tighe:
A loss for Man City likely spoiled a few slips (they were favoured at even money), but there were still plenty of ways this game hit home from a betting perspective: Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham all scored and, in general, goals rained down in Manchester, covering the over 4.5 market at 12/5.
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It was peculiar to watch two great teams look so incredibly vulnerable — City stuttering due to a lack of confidence, Madrid barely patching together a defensive line that functioned — but it at least made for phenomenal entertainment.
The Citizens will now chase the game at the Bernabéu in the second leg, meaning Madrid will be gifted another 90-minute opportunity to counter-attack into some inviting, wide-open spaces. You won't find a person on earth who doesn't expect them to score another handful next week and they're a pretty attractive price at ⅚ to win.
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Julia Ranney:
Die Roten striker Harry Kane has long been ridiculed for the amount of dust collecting in his trophy cabinet. But tonight, the 31-year-old swept away doubts over his triumphs by foiling Celtic keeper Kasper Schmeichel with a 49th-minute goal – an attacking play the tipsters saw coming.
Kane's night didn't start smoothly – he squandered a golden opportunity in the 43rd minute, missing a header at the back post. Instead, Michael Olise struck first, stunning the bookmakers with a thunderous goal just before half-time. Pre-match odds had Kane as the most likely first scorer (3/1), while Olise was considered a longer shot at 8/1.
The oddsmakers' predictions about Kane as an anytime goalscorer came true six minutes later when the unmarked forward expertly volleyed past Schmeichel, further cementing his place as the Dane's biggest nemesis.
For most of the match, Celtic's players were like crisp packets caught in the wind – drifting aimlessly as Bayern controlled possession. But Celtic Park roared to life in the dying minutes when Daizen Maeda struck from close range. It wasn't enough to salvage a draw, but heading to Germany with just a one-goal deficit keeps Brendan Rodgers' side in the fight – if only just.
Bayern remain heavy favourites to advance – with a lead in hand, home advantage, and a ruthless frontline, the odds are theirs. Backing Kane as an anytime scorer in the second leg feels inevitable. Can he make it 20 past Schmeichel?
Ranney:
Monaco vs Benfica was one of the few knockout matches where the underdog came out on top – at least on paper. Les Rouge et Blanc entered as slight favourites (7/5), but Benfica (39/20) defied the odds to seize the advantage heading into leg two.
The first half was a total snooze – the second half? Utter chaos. Three minutes after the break, Vangelis Pavlidis chipped Radosław Majecki following a brilliant Benfica build-up. Four minutes later, Al-Musrati saw red after receiving a second yellow – his Monaco debut ending in disaster.
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Down by a goal and a man, the host's night went from bad to worse – anyone backing the visitors to win by one (4/1) over Monaco's 10/3 came away with a hefty payout.
Looking ahead, the bookmakers give Benfica the slight edge to advance (4/5 over Monaco's 11/10), likely factoring in home advantage. With the odds nearly even, this one's a gut call for choosing the overall winner. But if you're looking for a safer option on the goalscoring front, backing Pavlidis to get on the scoresheet is a no-brainer. With six goals in nine Champions League matches this season, the Greek sensation isn't slowing down.
Brett Koremenos:
Now, this was a match that would've piqued the interest of even the most casual of bettors.
Despite 23 total shot attempts in Feyenoord's 1-0 victory over AC Milan, the quality chances came few and far between. Each team averaged roughly 0.5 xG per shot attempt. Considering most major leagues see an average shot go in 10 per cent of the time, this game needed an attacking upgrade.
With some hindsight, taking a 1-0 exact scoreline bet was a better play than simply betting the Feyenoord money line of 3/1. Milan haven't allowed over two xG in a single match since an early December fixture against Atalanta, so any Feyenoord victories that would have resulted from two goals would have required quite a bit of luck. If you were already betting the Dutch club to win, a 1-0 result was by far the most likely to produce that result – well worth the 14/1 pre-match odds.
Going forward, it's hard to tell how to handle the Italian favourites from here. A home match this weekend against Hellas Verona may offer some clues, but it's hard not to walk away from the result against Feyenoord, thinking this Millan attack needs more time to gel. The under of team and total goals might be the move when the odds for the second leg show up.
A goal down after the first leg.#FeyenoordMilan #UCL #SempreMilan pic.twitter.com/gJBCSTOuIq
— AC Milan (@acmilan) February 12, 2025
Koremenos:
If your bet was the Belgians to win, that questionable penalty afforded you some good fortune. Case in point, Brugge were lucky to earn a victory. Even with the added boost of that controversial foul – penalties are worth roughly 0.80 expected goals (xG) – the two teams created about the same quality of chances. Stripping it down to only non-penalty xG tilted things more in the Italians favor, but the draw was definitely the result that should have rewarded anyone who took the 12/5 pre-match odds with a nice payday.
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Ademola Lookman is the highest rated player in Serie A per DAVIES, one of the best public databases measuring the on and off ball impact of every player on the pitch. The 27-year-old leads Atalanta in expected goals (xG) plus expected assists (xA), carries into the penalty area and progressive passes received. In short, he does a lot of really important attacking things. Atalanta missed that.
The issue for Atalanta going forward – odds haven't been released as of publication – is that their high-flying attack seemed mostly pedestrian despite facing a club 37 spots below them in the ClubElo ratings. Thankfully for the Italian side, Lookman should be back for the return leg, making it easier to be far more bullish on bets against Brugge.
(Photo of Harry Kane: Getty Images/Ian MacNico)